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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Flyers Gameday: 12/1/21 @ NYR
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bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

Dec 1 @ 2:47 PM ET
Elliot Desnoyers invited to the team canada camp. Here's hoping he makes it and we can see him play
THE EVIL WITHIN
Location: NJ
Joined: 11.20.2017

Dec 1 @ 2:48 PM ET
2007 #2 JVR #41 Kevin Marshall
2008 #19 Luca Sbisa
2011 #8 Sean Couturier
2012 #20 Scott Laughton #2 Anthony Stolarz
2013 #11 Samuel Morin #41 Robert Hagg
2014 #17 Travis Sanheim #48 NAK
2015 #7 Provorov #24 Konecny
2016 #22 Rubtsov #36 Laberge #Hart #Wade Allison
2017 # 2 Nolan Patrick #27 Morgan Frost #35 Ratcliffe
2018 #14 Farabee #19 OBrien #50 Ginning

flyers first 2 rounds off drafts from 2007-2018. What do you grade that overall?

- hello it's me 2050

Many already gone. Poor Patrick LTIR in Vegas to.
Hextall271
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ersson-Ville, NB, NB
Joined: 01.18.2007

Dec 1 @ 2:53 PM ET
Many already gone. Poor Patrick LTIR in Vegas to.
- THE EVIL WITHIN


Is Patrick back on ltir? His head again?
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Dec 1 @ 2:55 PM ET
Who gets hurt first Hayes or Allison? Someone set the odds
THE BLACK HAND
Joined: 06.09.2021

Dec 1 @ 2:59 PM ET
that was more marc andre concussion never saw much from marshall
- 2Real

yes, MAB. Marshall was a bust
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Dec 1 @ 3:01 PM ET
This team is playing Conor bunnaman. Mr. what 2 points in 14 AHL games. If Allison is healthy get him in the lineup now. JFC.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Dec 1 @ 3:09 PM ET
Bill Meltzer: Flyers Gameday: 12/1/21 @ NYR
- bmeltzer

I was one of nobody who thought last summer that Ristolainen would look good next to Provorov. Fast forward 3-4 months later I couldn’t be more wrong. Ellis, Braun and Matt Seeler are all much better Candidates
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 1 @ 3:13 PM ET
This team is playing Conor bunnaman. Mr. what 2 points in 14 AHL games. If Allison is healthy get him in the lineup now. JFC.
- Just5


I would let him go to the AHL and play his way into shape. Have to manage young players properly.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Dec 1 @ 3:13 PM ET
Who gets hurt first Hayes or Allison? Someone set the odds
- hello it's me 2050


If you are talking about reinjury my money would be on Hayes.


MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Dec 1 @ 3:14 PM ET
This team is playing Conor bunnaman. Mr. what 2 points in 14 AHL games. If Allison is healthy get him in the lineup now. JFC.
- Just5




The guy hasn't played a game all season and missed most of training camp. That would just be silly.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Dec 1 @ 3:15 PM ET
I would let him go to the AHL and play his way into shape. Have to manage young players properly.
- MJL

Seems like the organization could care less about the kid, he’s a body that they can just plug in when needed
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Dec 1 @ 3:19 PM ET
And as far as SH%, you really think Chris Kreider is gonna keep shooting 25% and reach 60-goals?

When his shooting dries up (like clockwork), you gotta wonder who's gonna pick up that slack.

- Tomahawk



In relation to the flyers, their overall sh% in any of the 3 categories (low, high, medium) is not that different.

But their sh% is much higher. It is because they give up about as many HD chances as they get. Flyers give up 60% and get 40%.

That's the main difference.Their forwards, including Kredier, are not shooting lights out compared to us. They are getting compartively jucier chances and yielding less.

PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Dec 1 @ 3:22 PM ET
Again, I was only comparing the Rangers to the Flyers defensively.
- Tomahawk


Part of my answer (HDCF%) also does refer to defense. I was not contradicting you: just pointing out that the Rangers may not converge to the level of the Flyers, even if Kredier cools down, if that HDCF% gap stays as wide.


MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Dec 1 @ 3:24 PM ET
Seems like the organization could care less about the kid, he’s a body that they can just plug in when needed
- ClaudeFather



I guess they could care less about him. But I don't think so.
goenzoy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 04.11.2014

Dec 1 @ 3:31 PM ET
Is Patrick back on ltir? His head again?
- Hextall271

What ever is happening with Patrick on LTIR or normal injury it was in any case the wrong pick in hindsight.
Look what great player Miro Heiskanen already is today and he was drafted as Nr.3
hfc355
Joined: 06.17.2013

Dec 1 @ 3:36 PM ET
Look through the team metrics for the league and see what the norm is. See how many teams that are high in CF% are also high in HDCF%.
All of the numbers that you are looking at point to why the Rangers aren't at true contender status yet.

- MJL
.
New coach..new system..new players...playing 20 yr olds and with the record they have must be doing something right. Last time I looked at scoreboard the only number that mattered was goals. Will say this their possession numbers are so low because they are terrible at faceoffs. They will be a legit contender by years end. Also 8M in cap space to add big time rental
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Dec 1 @ 3:36 PM ET
In relation to the flyers, their overall sh% in any of the 3 categories (low, high, medium) is not that different.

But their sh% is much higher. It is because they give up about as many HD chances as they get. Flyers give up 60% and get 40%.

That's the main difference.Their forwards, including Kredier, are not shooting lights out compared to us. They are getting compartively jucier chances and yielding less.

- PT21


Why is Kreider the only one really reaping the rewards then?

Mika, Kakko, Strome are pretty talented and they're not exactly burying all these extra HD chances. Laf and Kakko are barely generating shots.

Yes, eventually these other guys shooting will start regressing to the mean. But you also have to remember that the Rangers are intentionally running two checking lines, so there's a relative shortage of scoring depth to begin with.

Panarin and Fox are better than anybody the Flyers can trot out. But on the whole, the margin between the two teams really isn't that big. The Rags aren't the Oilers or Avs, despite what their record seems to indicate.
hfc355
Joined: 06.17.2013

Dec 1 @ 3:37 PM ET
What ever is happening with Patrick on LTIR or normal injury it was in any case the wrong pick in hindsight.
Look what great player Miro Heiskanen already is today and he was drafted as Nr.3

- goenzoy

Injury not head related...
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Dec 1 @ 3:39 PM ET
Injury not head related...
- hfc355


Death, taxes and Nolan Patrick being injured.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Dec 1 @ 3:46 PM ET
Injury not head related...
- hfc355

Says who though? Everything I’ve seen says undisclosed
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Dec 1 @ 3:46 PM ET
Death, taxes and Nolan Patrick being injured.
- Tomahawk

Hexy couldn’t make that pick quick enough haha I’ll never forget him running up there
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 1 @ 3:48 PM ET
.
New coach..new system..new players...playing 20 yr olds and with the record they have must be doing something right. Last time I looked at scoreboard the only number that mattered was goals. Will say this their possession numbers are so low because they are terrible at faceoffs. They will be a legit contender by years end. Also 8M in cap space to add big time rental

- hfc355


They're definitely trending in the correct direction. A player like Lafrenière is only going to get better. I have my doubts about Kakko but he is still very young. However, they have a ways to go and really I think Drury made some bad moves such as trading Buchnevich and deleting their skill level. As the season goes on, it will get tougher, not easier. Faceoffs have very little to do with overall possession numbers.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 1 @ 3:49 PM ET
Why is Kreider the only one really reaping the rewards then?

Mika, Kakko, Strome are pretty talented and they're not exactly burying all these extra HD chances. Laf and Kakko are barely generating shots.

Yes, eventually these other guys shooting will start regressing to the mean. But you also have to remember that the Rangers are intentionally running two checking lines, so there's a relative shortage of scoring depth to begin with.

Panarin and Fox are better than anybody the Flyers can trot out. But on the whole, the margin between the two teams really isn't that big. The Rags aren't the Oilers or Avs, despite what their record seems to indicate.

- Tomahawk


Exactly. If what he says was true, the entire teams SH% would be elevated.


PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Dec 1 @ 3:50 PM ET
Why is Kreider the only one really reaping the rewards then?

Mika, Kakko, Strome are pretty talented and they're not exactly burying all these extra HD chances. Laf and Kakko are barely generating shots.

Yes, eventually these other guys shooting will start regressing to the mean. But you also have to remember that the Rangers are intentionally running two checking lines, so there's a relative shortage of scoring depth to begin with.

Panarin and Fox are better than anybody the Flyers can trot out. But on the whole, the margin between the two teams really isn't that big. The Rags aren't the Oilers or Avs, despite what their record seems to indicate.

- Tomahawk


That seems like noise to me. A blip.

Sure, they could start regressing to the mean. But overall, Rags are shooting at about 9%, which is 6th relatively, and not that high absolutely. Meaning that when Kreider and company cool down, there is probably scope for a few other guys to pick up the slack.

Their ranks in shooting % are not THAT different from us for any kind of chances. Their ranks in possession and xGF% are also not that different from us either. All of which mean that offense alone (inclusing things like Kreider's sh%) do not explain the difference in results.

The only major difference I found is that Rangers give up about as many high danger chances as they get. We give up 50% more chances than we get.

That's a huge disparity.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Dec 1 @ 3:55 PM ET
Look through the team metrics for the league and see what the norm is. See how many teams that are high in CF% are also high in HDCF%.
All of the numbers that you are looking at point to why the Rangers aren't at true contender status yet.

- MJL

Yes, compared to teams like Tampa who are tops in the league in HDCF% at 57%, the Rangers have a long way to go. Unfortunately, the Flyers have even a longer way to go.
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