Sorry I must have missed it. You and Yorky? I just know today is gonna be a good day!
- Load Management

Yes, Myers has taken his stock from a "SELL" to a "DON'T BUY"

Couldnt disagree more. Theres lots of NHL talent in the A, that's the entire purpose of the league is to develop. Lliiga is one of mamy leagues for guys who cant make the show.
- neem55

I couldn't disagree more.

Many NHL Equivalency and Prospect Projection Models project Liiga to be a better league than the AHL.

Out of the 95 leagues in Bacon’s dataset that had “before and after” data available, the AHL was the worst (95th) league in terms of median change in probability of becoming a Star and in change in probability of becoming an NHLer. Meanwhile, the NHL ranks 1st in both metrics.

So, at the risk of alienating an entire professional hockey league, the AHL sucks at developing talent. It is not a developmental league -- it is a holding cell. It is an overflow league. It is where you store hockey players that are good enough to be worth owning, but not good enough to play in the NHL. It is hockey purgatory.

https://infernalaccess.su...bad-league-for-developing

Here's an article if you want to read it.

I think OEL is a better player and defender than Myers, but both are a far cry from their contract.

The only reason I'm not suggesting to trade OEL is because no one would take him on without us paying. Myers is the more manageable contract to con off on a desperate/dumb GM....
- NewYorkNuck

I completely agree with this.

I couldn't disagree more.

Many NHL Equivalency and Prospect Projection Models project Liiga to be a better league than the AHL.

....

Out of the 95 leagues in Bacon’s dataset that had “before and after” data available, the AHL was the worst (95th) league in terms of median change in probability of becoming a Star and in change in probability of becoming an NHLer. Meanwhile, the NHL ranks 1st in both metrics.

- manvanfan

Why include the NHL in the ranking to make it to the NHL? Is there a way they wouldn't be 1st in both metrics?

(Can't quote a quote so not directed at you)

Why include the NHL in the ranking to make it to the NHL? Is there a way they wouldn't be 1st in both metrics?

(Can't quote a quote so not directed at you)
- NewYorkNuck

he is talking about development and improvement

the AHL was the worst (95th) league in terms of median change in probability of becoming a Star and in change in probability of becoming an NHLer.

Why include the NHL in the ranking to make it to the NHL? Is there a way they wouldn't be 1st in both metrics?

(Can't quote a quote so not directed at you)
- NewYorkNuck

There's just so much wrong with that article. It's a massive cherry pick.

Love Arrested Development btw. Hilarious still.

There's just so much wrong with that article. It's a massive cherry pick.

Love Arrested Development btw. Hilarious still.
- Load Management

Cherry picked using a lifetime of data?

I couldn't disagree more.

Many NHL Equivalency and Prospect Projection Models project Liiga to be a better league than the AHL.





https://infernalaccess.su...bad-league-for-developing

Here's an article if you want to read it.
- manvanfan

Super interesting article. Thing is, most draft picks dont make it to the show so i cant say im shocked the stats say this. Also I really dont think its a "holding cell" in places like syracuse, toronto reign, checkers... just aaying some teams seem to be doing it right. But ya, majority of the guys in abby will never lace up for the big club. Thats reality of how hard it is, then an undrafted guy comes out of college and straight intonthe lineup. Thats why we all love it, if it was easy or simple it wouldnt be fun to watch

he is talking about development and improvement

the AHL was the worst (95th) league in terms of median change in probability of becoming a Star and in change in probability of becoming an NHLer.
- manvanfan

"Probability of becoming an NHLer".. isn't the probability of being an NHLer 100% when you're in the NHL?

There's just so much wrong with that article. It's a massive cherry pick.

Love Arrested Development btw. Hilarious still.
- Load Management

Couldn't find a GIF, was hoping someone would get the reference.

So is Makar going to beat McDavid tonight ?
Should be good speed on display

he is talking about development and improvement

the AHL was the worst (95th) league in terms of median change in probability of becoming a Star and in change in probability of becoming an NHLer.
- manvanfan

Wouldn't that be because for a lot of the guys playing the AHL, the odds are already really high when they get there?

Super interesting article. Thing is, most draft picks dont make it to the show so i cant say im shocked the stats say this. Also I really dont think its a "holding cell" in places like syracuse, toronto reign, checkers... just aaying some teams seem to be doing it right. But ya, majority of the guys in abby will never lace up for the big club. Thats reality of how hard it is, then an undrafted guy comes out of college and straight intonthe lineup. Thats why we all love it, if it was easy or simple it wouldnt be fun to watch
- neem55

https://model284.com/hock...tion-factors-methodology/

Here's another model from 2015 that has Liiga as a better projectable league than the AHL albeit again just slightly, same as the last one.

"Probability of becoming an NHLer".. isn't the probability of being an NHLer 100% when you're in the NHL?
- NewYorkNuck

no.

Here's Patrick Bacon's 2021 rankings.

https://public.tableau.co...tions/ProspectProjections

Personally NHLe isn't may fav model. I think the pGPS that was used my Jeremy Davies on Canucksarmy years ago

https://canucksarmy.com/2...files-5-elias-pettersson/

Little different, doesn't give the star projection or NHLer% though but is more accurate.

no.

Here's Patrick Bacon's 2021 rankings.

https://public.tableau.co...tions/ProspectProjections

Personally NHLe isn't may fav model. I think the pGPS that was used my Jeremy Davies on Canucksarmy years ago

https://canucksarmy.com/2...files-5-elias-pettersson/

Little different, doesn't give the star projection or NHLer% though but is more accurate.
- manvanfan

What I'm saying is, the guy wrote that the NHL ranked 1st "in probability of becoming an NHLer".

What are you if you play in the NHL. Are you not an NHLer?

The link with the list has a whole lot of guys who haven't played in the NHL – therefore they only have a chance (high or low) of being an NHLer (ie. playing in the NHL).

Played in the NHL? Then your odds of being an NHLer are 100%. It is just redundant/stupid to say the NHL ranks 1st because it is self evident.

Wouldn't that be because for a lot of the guys playing the AHL, the odds are already really high when they get there?
- NorthNuck

I would say no. There isn't a lot of players that project high according to most models I have seen.

Here's another one that has taken data from years past
https://topdownhockey.med...class-part-4-95762f96248d

As it says Vantels boy had a 1.4% of playing in the NHL.

The models aren't perfect because development isn't perfect.

What I'm saying is, the guy wrote that the NHL ranked 1st "in probability of becoming an NHLer".

What are you if you play in the NHL. Are you not an NHLer?

The link with the list has a whole lot of guys who haven't played in the NHL – therefore they only have a chance (high or low) of being an NHLer (ie. playing in the NHL).

Played in the NHL? Then your odds of being an NHLer are 100%. It is just redundant/stupid to say the NHL ranks 1st because it is self evident.
- NewYorkNuck

Would you call Brendan Gaunce an NHLer because he played in the NHL? is he a 100% NHLer?

What about Marc Michaelis is he an NHLer because he played 15 games and didn't register a point? He has 8 points in 13 games in the AHL this season. Do you think his NHLer percentage should be 100%?

Would you call Brendan Gaunce an NHLer because he played in the NHL? is he a 100% NHLer?

What about Marc Michaelis is he an NHLer because he played 15 games and didn't register a point? He has 8 points in 13 games in the AHL this season. Do you think his NHLer percentage should be 100%?
- manvanfan

Did Brendan Gaunce play in 100 games? If so, he was an nhler.

Totally disagree with the article, BTW.

Cherry picked using a lifetime of data?
- manvanfan

Lol. You're so narrow sometimes. Maybe, just maybe, it's the way they used that data to support their lame argument. 95th? Give me a break. You probably haven't watched 50 different leagues in your lifetime.

Did Brendan Gaunce play in 100 games? If so, he was an nhler.

Totally disagree with the article, BTW.
- Reubenkincade

Where is he now? In the NHL???

Where is he now? In the NHL???
- manvanfan

No idea but probably playing in Liiga or SHL, in order to get developed better for the NHL.

Lol. You're so narrow sometimes. Maybe, just maybe, it's the way they used that data to support their lame argument. 95th? Give me a break. You probably haven't watched 50 different leagues in your lifetime.
- Load Management

I can see you have run out of actual evidence on the matter.

Good talk.

What I'm saying is, the guy wrote that the NHL ranked 1st "in probability of becoming an NHLer".

What are you if you play in the NHL. Are you not an NHLer?

The link with the list has a whole lot of guys who haven't played in the NHL – therefore they only have a chance (high or low) of being an NHLer (ie. playing in the NHL).

Played in the NHL? Then your odds of being an NHLer are 100%. It is just redundant/stupid to say the NHL ranks 1st because it is self evident.
- NewYorkNuck

That metric refers to players woth 150 gp or more. Theres a link in the article where you can check what the variables(how its measured). Theres always flaws to statistics, but that isnt one of the flaws here.

I can see you have run out of actual evidence on the matter.

Good talk.
- manvanfan

So you can name the 95 leagues then? Yeah, great talk.

That metric refers to players woth 150 gp or more. Theres a link in the article where you can check what the variables(how its measured). Theres always flaws to statistics, but that isnt one of the flaws here.
- neem55

Flaws and development paths. They are "projection" models. Not exact models.

There are always outliers.