Sens Writer: OTT loses to TOR/CBJ; playoff hope fading quickly

It’s hard to see more than maybe 2 of those players returning, but with cap space at a premium having affordable and effective role players is not to be taken for granted.

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Very true which is why you can't give 8+ million dollars to DeBrincat. The Sens desperately need a number 1 starter and some quality depth of front if they want to be taken seriously. Plus they need to lock up both Sanderson and Pinto long term.

Hopefully new owners will bring in a competent NHL GM who will not be shy about making the needed moves.

What is a bit worrisome is that this new ownership taking charge thing keeps getting pushed back and is now somewhere in July. I wonder if Bettman is hoping that Dorion will get the opportunity to extend DeBrincat for term and big money thereby removing Ottawa as a possible landing spot for the Cup for many, many years to come. That would put a big, satisfied smile on his face.

I'm by no means sold on the notion of running DeBrincat out of town on principle, however the statistic about the Senators being 26th in the NHL in 5-on-5 scoring is more than a bit disappointing. Combine that with the fact that the Batherson-Pinto-DeBrincat line is now a combined -85, and it becomes downright alarming. Now having Norris back in the lineup could have a substantial impact, but that line just seems to be taking too many risks in order to generate scoring chances. They have a combined 67G, but 29 have been on the PP. That leaves just 38G scored at even strength, and as a line they average a -28 plus-minus rating. This essentially means they've been outscored at ES by an estimated margin of 66-38. For a team with an overall goal differential of -7, that's an unacceptable number.

DeBrincat will be settled before the draft. He will be signed or dealt.

For the right number I resign him. If he wants more money than Stutzle, I move him.

Sens can create a long term cap structure and remain cap compliant with a payroll including 6 guys averaging in the $8.1 AAV range.

Who are the big 6. I see Chabot, Stutzle and Tkachuk locked in long term in the $8m range. You have 3 spaces left for Norris, DeBrincat, Sanderson and Chychrun. Perhaps one guy may need to go.

Lots of cap space would remain for Pinto, Zub, Batherson in mid range deals. Giroux' contract woul not fit beyond year 3 of his deal.

I really like the D, especially their age and size profile. I would like to see more beef on the 2nd line. Goaltending remains problematic.

Key now is not to give the Yotes a better draft pick. Hard to say what this team is given it hasn't been healthy all year. Brown's been pretty good since the acquisition - blows Gambrell out the water. I know who I'm keeping between those two. Hamonic has really upped his game lately too, I'd be tempted to keep him another year. Holden, Gambrell, Talbot should walk, and probably Gauthier too unless he takes league min. Watson I'm torn - he plays a role nobody else does (dispensable size and grit - can't have our captain benched for fight minutes), but he's not great metrics wise. Who would you keep around?

Key now is not to give the Yotes a better draft pick. Hard to say what this team is given it hasn't been healthy all year. Brown's been pretty good since the acquisition - blows Gambrell out the water. I know who I'm keeping between those two. Hamonic has really upped his game lately too, I'd be tempted to keep him another year.
- Bartacus

A+ on Hamonic. He is not Methot but he does real well to shape his game to support a highly talented rookie. Not a lot of vets can do that and help the young player grow his game.

first and foremost OTT needs a NHL coach, OTT should not sign ANY of the UFAs, all are too old, or suck, resign Gauthier to under 1M as he has speed which is important for a 4th liner. OTT is fine on D with a top 6 of Chabot,Zub,Chych,Sanderson, Branny and JBD/kleven. Chych has 8 years anD Chabot has 7 years in the NHL, THEY are your vets, no need for geriatric pylons anymore.

if, as everyone here thinks Sandy going to make 8M+ on his next contract, OTT cannot afford to keep Cat, Depth win cups.

with a NHL coach OTT should be better playing D so the needs to trade everything for a maybe G like Hart, Gibson or Demko is not necessary.

OTT problem is the crap coach smith not playing the kids so OTT has no idea what they have...Talbot should not see another single game this season but wanna bet he will play in 50-66% or more of the remaining games...

I really don't understand this seemingly prevalent notion that Sanderson has to make $8M on his next contract. There are only 17 D-men in the NHL that make that salary, and it's very rare for a D-man to make that kind of money right out of their ELC. It's typically in place more for offensive D-men (Makar, Heiskanen, Fox, Chabot, Hughes). Conversely, there's no shortage of high-quality 2-way D-men that have taken a bridge deal out of their ELC in recent years, including Dahlin, Werenski, Jones, McAvoy, Sergachev, Dobson, Nurse, Lindholm, Chychrun, etc.

Given that cap space is tight, why would they not go for a 3yr deal in order to maximize the quality of the rest of their roster? He'll still be worth giving an 8yr deal at the other side of the bridge deal, and by then the cap will be significantly higher, and you'll have Giroux's $$$ available to redistribute.

I think if they drop one more spot the sens enter the 1st pick sweepstakes. With the Chychrun 1st pick being top 5 protected that would be interedting.

They need a solid goalie next year, im not convinced anyone currently can be that.
They need to meddle with the bottom 6.
I think sign debrincat at 5 x 7.5 or trade. Imo, His size will limit his best years productivity. Its a hard game on small guys.

I am also in favour of a bridge deal with Sanderson. The Sens already have some big contract gambles kn young players. You cant do that to every young player

I really don't understand this seemingly prevalent notion that Sanderson has to make $8M on his next contract. There are only 17 D-men in the NHL that make that salary, and it's very rare for a D-man to make that kind of money right out of their ELC. It's typically in place more for offensive D-men (Makar, Heiskanen, Fox, Chabot, Hughes). Conversely, there's no shortage of high-quality 2-way D-men that have taken a bridge deal out of their ELC in recent years, including Dahlin, Werenski, Jones, McAvoy, Sergachev, Dobson, Nurse, Lindholm, Chychrun, etc.

Given that cap space is tight, why would they not go for a 3yr deal in order to maximize the quality of the rest of their roster? He'll still be worth giving an 8yr deal at the other side of the bridge deal, and by then the cap will be significantly higher, and you'll have Giroux's $$$ available to redistribute.
- khawk

Tkachuk and Stutzle are bargains on their $8m+ deals. Chabot is full value on his deal and the jury will still needs to be convinced on Norris.

Imagine the number we might be looking at if the Sens had waited until this summer to begin discussions with Stutzle.

Sanderson is not Makar (yet)...but you need to look at his $9m long term deal as a bench mark in setting the upper range on what Sanderson might theoretically ask. And, remember, in the Makar deal many thought he gave Colorado a home town discount. Also, if the cap pops to $96m add another 10% to the base expectation.

So, you could wait and maybe Sanderson's game declines and you get him for less. Or, his game progresses and you end up paying a premium on the back end for an older version of the player.

Nobody knows the right answer.

Good blog.

Sanderson bridge deal.
Gauthier can replace Watson.
There are NO goalies that solve our problem available in the NHL. Our current GM is a terrible judge of pro-talent. And even the best gm would have a hard time predicting which middle aged (in hockey years) goalie is going to be able to get this team over the top.

Hamonic gets a B- from me. Playing with Sanderson made HIM better not the other way around. His start to the season was also brutal and I remember calling him Gudbrandson 2.0

Coach needs to go.

Tkachuk and Stutzle are bargains on their $8m+ deals. Chabot is full value on his deal and the jury will still needs to be convinced on Norris.

Imagine the number we might be looking at if the Sens had waited until this summer to begin discussions with Stutzle.

Sanderson is not Makar (yet)...but you need to look at his $9m long term deal as a bench mark in setting the upper range on what Sanderson might theoretically ask. And, remember, in the Makar deal many thought he gave Colorado a home town discount. Also, if the cap pops to $96m add another 10% to the base expectation.

So, you could wait and maybe Sanderson's game declines and you get him for less. Or, his game progresses and you end up paying a premium on the back end for an older version of the player.

Nobody knows the right answer.
- spatso

People need to calm down about Sanderson, especially if they're even thinking of using Makar as a comparable. Don't get me wrong, I'd often speculated that this team's competitive window would be defined by when Sanderson was playing a major role on the team's blue line. But realistically, he's produced 29pts in his first 72GP in the NHL, which is nothing even close to the production of the league's highest-paid D-men. Chabot got $8.0M for having a sophomore year where he projected at >60pts, but has since fallen into a ~50pts projected range. So I would have to disagree that Chabot is objectively worth $8.0M AAV, but certainly recognize the importance of that deal being the foundational contract of the rebuild.

However, the team is no longer struggling to develop a new identity, and Chabot, Tkachuk, Stutzle, and Norris have all signed major long-term deals to provide stability. Plus, there are now 3 potential top-pairing D-men on the team, which could significantly affect ice time distribution. That's a very important consideration, given that Sanderson scored 16 of his 29pts on the PP this year, which is a FAR higher proportion than Chabot had in either of his first 2 NHL seasons. And to put Sanderson's 13pts of ES production in context, it's the exact same ES scoring pace that Cody Ceci had as a rookie D-man. Now, Sanderson is obviously a far better overall D-man than Ceci, but there's no resolution to exactly how all of Chabot, Sanderson, and Chychrun will co-exist at LHD for the next two seasons.

The point is, there are just way too many question marks around what Sanderson is or could eventually become as a player to warrant a premature investment of $8M on a max-term deal. This is especially true when there are so many options available in terms of signing him to shorter-term options, plus the reality that he may not even be interested in negotiating such a deal on the basis of just 1 NHL season. So the priorities for this off-season have to be: a) resolving the DeBrincat situation, b) signing Pinto/Brannstrom to new RFA deals, and c) stabilizing the goaltending position.

I've stand by my past statements that the coaching is the root problem. Change that, and the team defence improves and the goaltending improves. Solves a lot of this teams problems.

As for who to keep. I'd look at hamonic and Watson if the numbers are right, nobody else needs to be pushed IMO.

For Sanderson, I'd go long term if you can. Yes his numbers on paper aren't top end, but he passes the eye test and makes players better. That isn't going to get worse next year and his price will only go up. That said, I didn't think he'd step into a top four role, so what do I know.

As for Debrincat, I'm in the sell camp. See what you can get for him at the draft, Dorion should be able to recoup almost what he gave up. It would be nice to recoup some draft capital for next years push. As much as I'd like to see him play with Norris (or Stuzle) for year, I've watched him miss too many one timers this year to think he can live up to 8mil. And like it or not, he's a small guy, which doesn't help in playoffs. That fight was great though...If they just qualify him, it puts the Sens in a horrible spot for trade deadline next year. Are you going to move a guy when you're in the playoff hunt? Keep him and let him walk for nothing? Seems scary to me.

Sokolov finally gets the call again 😊👍

the NHL has the worst officiating of any sports in the world, and this will not end until a team grows a set of balls and just walks off the ice and leaves.

I can't help it. I want Ottawa to win every game and as I'm watching this one I want them to win. Another part of me wants them to drop 11 th overall. Go Washington Go.

The hockey gods punish me with a Giroux goal. Go Sens Go. I'd be happy with Fantilli.

Another goal tying it up and I love it. Merilainen looks good.

They looked awful in OT. Really bad. Don't understand that at all.

Leevi Merilainen looks like he will be a regular NHL goalie that can go very far

Pekka Rinne, Kari Lehtonen, Miikka Kiprusoff, Tuukka Rask, Antti Niemi, Juuse Saros

I can't help it. I want Ottawa to win every game and as I'm watching this one I want them to win. Another part of me wants them to drop 11 th overall. Go Washington Go.

The hockey gods punish me with a Giroux goal. Go Sens Go. I'd be happy with Fantilli.

Another goal tying it up and I love it. Merilainen looks good.

They looked awful in OT. Really bad. Don't understand that at all.
- Whatisavailable

No Chabot 🤷‍♂️ they can’t run 3on3 without him

The o.tgoal was a direct result of a very bad stutzle line change. You cant casually sulk off the ice from the ozone when they heading fast down to your end on a 3-2. Guess what happens.game over

No Chabot 🤷‍♂️ they can’t run 3on3 without him
- sens4life1971

TOI: Sanderson 30:34

Thought the Sens were completely gassed by the end of regular time. Same against Columbus.

I can't help it. I want Ottawa to win every game and as I'm watching this one I want them to win. Another part of me wants them to drop 11 th overall. Go Washington Go.

The hockey gods punish me with a Giroux goal. Go Sens Go. I'd be happy with Fantilli.

Another goal tying it up and I love it. Merilainen looks good.

They looked awful in OT. Really bad. Don't understand that at all.
- Whatisavailable

How many places can a team move up in the lottery?

How many places can a team move up in the lottery?
- spatso

10

How many places can a team move up in the lottery?
- spatso

I ran the lottery 100x. Sens finished with the 2nd overall pick 3x! (so at least 97% chance they don't get the pick and it goes to Arizona)

I ran the lottery 100x. Sens finished with the 2nd overall pick 3x! (so at least 97% chance they don't get the pick and it goes to Arizona)
- AlfieisKing

I got 4 3rd overall picks in 54. Not bad odds at all, right? Then I went 0 in 46.

On the 8th try, Ottawa came up at #3.

Dorion made a nice trade. Chychrun for the #12 pick should not cause any second guessing of the deal. Imagine the response if they got Chychrun + a #3.

Love the end of the season with Sanderson, Kleven, Braanstrom and JBD logging the bonus ice time. We should be pretty strong to begin next season.