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Forums :: Blog World :: Brad Lohr: We Have the Power to Move You.
Author Message
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jul 10 @ 10:46 AM ET
Use Homies list then for specifics.

An unbalanced prospect pool dilutes the value of the players to potential teams as they know they will not pan out in the Sabres organization.

Years of losing and drafting top of the draft to hold those prospects for years and maybe see an impact for the organization 5 or more years down the line.

- washedup20


There's more to it though.

If you have a young kid in the cap era that isn't good enough for your team, then you're already trading a depreciated asset. Has little to do with the league 'knowing' you need to trade the kid. You don't even need to trade him.

Let's pretend this happens to Zach Benson.

You have the 13th pick, and that's worth a player like Alex Debrincat last year, plus a few extra picks.

Then you have Zach Benson, who is probably worth Alex Debrincat 1 for 1 now.

Let's say in a few years his development stagnates or declines like Laaksonen. Now you have a guy who becomes a sweetener for Alex Debrincat, but you'll need to add a 1st, maybe a 2nd.

Year or two later, you've got a tweener forward, won't get qualified. Now he's worth close to nothing.

It's all based on projection. Their job is to identify that projection, character and work ethic in these kids before they're drafted.
washedup20
Location: the little apple
Joined: 08.19.2014

Jul 10 @ 10:47 AM ET
In an effort not to let the wrong one walk, like Hagel again, shouldn't he hold as long as he can? I mean no decision needs to happen this year, so he should basically just be shopping for a great deal right now, no?
- QuinnFan


When the tear down post Eichel was happening, collecting futures was the right move and Adams did pretty well at that.

Last season the holes were obvious and ignored, while continuing to add to the depth of similar style prospects.

This offseason is the same approach, and now the prospect pool is bloated with the same holes in the NHL roster, going into next year with the same group.

The option could be for this years NHL players to continue to develop if not move them and give the new wave of prospects a try only prolonging the development period for the team, would fans be ok with that?
QuinnFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Formerly Visionville, Now Purgatory
Joined: 07.29.2021

Jul 10 @ 10:48 AM ET
I mean …. If every gm in the nhl and professional sports had a crystal ball for that. It would make life easier.

Every team has misses. It happens.

- Sabretooth9


That's true, but with so many good prospects and so few spots to become open...that chance is a little higher with us, no? I worry about guys like Richard, Saardarian, Neuchev or Poltapov, who have showed a lot of promise, but are just behind the "big dogs". Any of those 4 could become an impact NHLer IMO.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jul 10 @ 10:49 AM ET
Think it's an excellent question. Rosen might be first. If he can't crack the lineup a year from now, his value would take a big hit.

May already be running into it with UPL.

- Lunaion


Part of their job is to project that possibility and trade him before that 'hit' comes. These types of players show up in trades like Erik Karlsson and Timo Meier.
Slump Buster
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I root for draft picks but not the team, apparently, NY
Joined: 10.24.2006

Jul 10 @ 10:50 AM ET
Use Homies list then for specifics.

An unbalanced prospect pool dilutes the value of the players to potential teams as they know they will not pan out in the Sabres organization.

Years of losing and drafting top of the draft to hold those prospects for years and maybe see an impact for the organization 5 or more years down the line.

- washedup20


Source? That is completely absurd.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jul 10 @ 10:50 AM ET
When the tear down post Eichel was happening, collecting futures was the right move and Adams did pretty well at that.

Last season the holes were obvious and ignored, while continuing to add to the depth of similar style prospects.

This offseason is the same approach, and now the prospect pool is bloated with the same holes in the NHL roster, going into next year with the same group.

The option could be for this years NHL players to continue to develop if not move them and give the new wave of prospects a try only prolonging the development period for the team, would fans be ok with that?

- washedup20


What holes do you specifically identify?
QuinnFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Formerly Visionville, Now Purgatory
Joined: 07.29.2021

Jul 10 @ 10:51 AM ET
What is the value of a prospect that can't crack the NHL roster (of a non playoff team) after X years but is deemed ready?
- washedup20


Which one of the kids does this apply to? I would consider any of the former 1st rounders as "not cracking the lineup". Just too young still, especially given our strong forward group right now.
Slump Buster
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I root for draft picks but not the team, apparently, NY
Joined: 10.24.2006

Jul 10 @ 10:52 AM ET
That's true, but with so many good prospects and so few spots to become open...that chance is a little higher with us, no? I worry about guys like Richard, Saardarian, Neuchev or Poltapov, who have showed a lot of promise, but are just behind the "big dogs". Any of those 4 could become an impact NHLer IMO.
- QuinnFan


The flip side of this is that - if the NHL roster is stacked - the secondary prospects get a lot of time to shine in the minors. That's how good organizations like Tampa set themselves up. Just look at the Orioles for a perfect current comparison.
washedup20
Location: the little apple
Joined: 08.19.2014

Jul 10 @ 10:53 AM ET
There's more to it though.

If you have a young kid in the cap era that isn't good enough for your team, then you're already trading a depreciated asset. Has little to do with the league 'knowing' you need to trade the kid. You don't even need to trade him.

Let's pretend this happens to Zach Benson.

You have the 13th pick, and that's worth a player like Alex Debrincat last year, plus a few extra picks.

Then you have Zach Benson, who is probably worth Alex Debrincat 1 for 1 now.

Let's say in a few years his development stagnates or declines like Laaksonen. Now you have a guy who becomes a sweetener for Alex Debrincat, but you'll need to add a 1st, maybe a 2nd.

Year or two later, you've got a tweener forward, won't get qualified. Now he's worth close to nothing.

It's all based on projection. Their job is to identify that projection, character and work ethic in these kids before they're drafted.

- TheSabresTaco


I can agree with this, Benson is considered the Sabres top prospect already...so the values of all the prospect before him have already fallen.
Slump Buster
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I root for draft picks but not the team, apparently, NY
Joined: 10.24.2006

Jul 10 @ 10:55 AM ET
I can agree with this, Benson is considered the Sabres top prospect already...so the values of all the prospect before him have already fallen.
- washedup20


(laughing) so let me get this straight. By your logic, every team has a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc prospects and they all have the same value. So Kulich somehow lost value because Benson was drafted? That is just mind-blowingly stupid.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jul 10 @ 10:55 AM ET
https://isport.blesk.cz/c...any-sanci-cekal-driv.html

Reed.
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Jul 10 @ 10:56 AM ET
Part of their job is to project that possibility and trade him before that 'hit' comes. These types of players show up in trades like Erik Karlsson and Timo Meier.
- TheSabresTaco


Think it's possible that part of his inability to make trades is that some of his prospects have already declined in value.
Slump Buster
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I root for draft picks but not the team, apparently, NY
Joined: 10.24.2006

Jul 10 @ 10:58 AM ET
https://isport.blesk.cz/c...any-sanci-cekal-driv.html

Reed.

- TheSabresTaco


I remember last year he said that he expected to be in the NHL immediately and we all thought "awe, that's cute". It turns out that he really meant it.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jul 10 @ 10:59 AM ET
I can agree with this, Benson is considered the Sabres top prospect already...so the values of all the prospect before him have already fallen.
- washedup20


That stroke is much too broad. imo, any prospect who is on a positive development curve has more value today than the second they were drafted at their position.

Constantini is a guy I can think of who had a down year and then decided to transfer. Most of our guys, especially the ones drafted in the top half in their respective rounds, have been positively building on their initial draft position.
QuinnFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Formerly Visionville, Now Purgatory
Joined: 07.29.2021

Jul 10 @ 11:01 AM ET
The flip side of this is that - if the NHL roster is stacked - the secondary prospects get a lot of time to shine in the minors. That's how good organizations like Tampa set themselves up. Just look at the Orioles for a perfect current comparison.
- Slump Buster


That's kind of what I'm hoping for. Let's find out if Kisakov can bulk up, if Neuchev's game translates...not to pick on the Russians, but stuff like that. I think that would be a great model.
washedup20
Location: the little apple
Joined: 08.19.2014

Jul 10 @ 11:02 AM ET
What holes do you specifically identify?
- TheSabresTaco


Goaltending - the moves made are not sufficient...still

Defense - overpaid for lower half (which was needed, and a result of bad ownership) still need upgrades though and better depth

PK - ignored

Grit - ignored

Leadership - Johnson is not enough


QuinnFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Formerly Visionville, Now Purgatory
Joined: 07.29.2021

Jul 10 @ 11:03 AM ET
https://isport.blesk.cz/c...any-sanci-cekal-driv.html

Reed.

- TheSabresTaco


I can't
QuinnFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Formerly Visionville, Now Purgatory
Joined: 07.29.2021

Jul 10 @ 11:07 AM ET
This is what got Darcy in trouble….

Was so afraid to lose a trade because you might trade away a good prospect.

- ImThatGuy


Darcy was an extreme though, where he wouldn't trade one of his picks for the 2nd coming if he could help it.

There has to be some middle ground here. Hagel is our only massive miss recently, but I don't want more. The whole point of building through the draft is being patient.
DirtyDan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Why aren't more people interrigent? Rike Me? , ON
Joined: 02.03.2021

Jul 10 @ 11:09 AM ET
Goaltending - the moves made are not sufficient...still

Defense - overpaid for lower half (which was needed, and a result of bad ownership) still need upgrades though and better depth

PK - ignored

Grit - ignored

Leadership - Johnson is not enough

- washedup20


PK- Brought in a solid PK'er in Clifton. Could of used an Accari for the forwards.

Grit - Both Clifton and Johnson have grit.

Leadership - Okposo, Johnson, Dahlin, Tuch, Skinner

Whether you like the signings or not they addressed all areas you speak of except goalie.
Slump Buster
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I root for draft picks but not the team, apparently, NY
Joined: 10.24.2006

Jul 10 @ 11:09 AM ET
Goaltending - the moves made are not sufficient...still

Defense - overpaid for lower half (which was needed, and a result of bad ownership) still need upgrades though and better depth

PK - ignored

Grit - ignored

Leadership - Johnson is not enough

- washedup20


Goaltending: offseason not finished, you don't know how this all plays out

PK - was better at the end of last year with emergence of Mitts and Greenway

Leadership: we now have numerous vets. We need more

Grit: what years is this?

Defense. Overpaid? You're just looking for things to criticize Johnson for one year isn't a big deal.
washedup20
Location: the little apple
Joined: 08.19.2014

Jul 10 @ 11:11 AM ET
That stroke is much too broad. imo, any prospect who is on a positive development curve has more value today than the second they were drafted at their position.

Constantini is a guy I can think of who had a down year and then decided to transfer. Most of our guys, especially the ones drafted in the top half in their respective rounds, have been positively building on their initial draft position.

- TheSabresTaco


Would Savoie alone been enough to move up to 9th overall in this past draft?
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Jul 10 @ 11:16 AM ET
Would Savoie alone been enough to move up to 9th overall in this past draft?
- washedup20


Not even close. Prospects are like new cars, most of them lose value their first year.
Sabretooth9
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 05.24.2019

Jul 10 @ 11:17 AM ET
Goaltending - the moves made are not sufficient...still

Defense - overpaid for lower half (which was needed, and a result of bad ownership) still need upgrades though and better depth

PK - ignored

Grit - ignored

Leadership - Johnson is not enough

- washedup20


Lol still on grit thing. We don’t need that 😂😂😂

The defense price we paid was fine

I think you are overreacting
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jul 10 @ 11:18 AM ET
Would Savoie alone been enough to move up to 9th overall in this past draft?
- washedup20


yes
Sabretooth9
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 05.24.2019

Jul 10 @ 11:18 AM ET
Would Savoie alone been enough to move up to 9th overall in this past draft?
- washedup20


Why does everyone want to trade savoie

Come on now 😂
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