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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Toronto Maple Leafs Top-40 Prospects - #39
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Skalapy
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I'm sick of your "I play real , NC
Joined: 07.11.2006

Jul 27 @ 10:35 AM ET
I played the original Tron a lot (as well as the different Tron games on Intellivision).

I don't think I ever played the Tron game in the article.

I have from time to time looked at getting a table top arcade game. They have them now so that you can load thousands of games onto them.


Although I really only need about 10:

Galaxian (yeah, over Galaga)
Centipede
Ms. Pacman
Dig Dug
NHL 93 and 94
Tecmo Superbowl
Pole Position
Qix
Qbert
Zaxxon

- Atomic Wedgie

Phoenix
Berserk 😍
mjones242
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Pretentious Beer Snob, ON
Joined: 06.22.2015

Jul 27 @ 10:37 AM ET
You know I'd say that my principal reason for not wanting to trade any of our bigger names is that we wouldn't get anyone back who would bring what they do. You need guys to put the puck in the net and that's what Willy and Matthews do. Last year we had 80 goals from them, and 66 more from Marner & JT. The year before we had 94 from Matthews and Nylander, and then 62 more from Marner & JT. One year prior, prorated because of the shortened pandemic season, you had 85 from Matthews & Nylander and another 57 from Marner & JT. It should be noted that Marner did score more goals than Nylander in both 2020 and 2021. I'm sort of grouping them that way because over the past 3 years more often than not that is your separation between lines 1 & 2 (Matthews with Marner and JT with Nylander).

That said, unlike teams of the past, I'm less tied to these stars today. Maybe it's the salaries or the fact that media has grown so rampant that it's driven many of the players away from the media to some extent - but the heroes of the past that we all glommed onto - like Clark or Gilmour (or further back for me as a kid in Sittler, Salming, Palmateer and McDonald) - seemed more invested in winning as Leafs than the current group. Out of this group, I believe Rielly is the most invested player.

Like . . . I remember when Clark was traded and I was at home getting ready to go out to a club but the TV was on in the background and I remember them saying Clark had been traded to Quebec for Sundin and I was legitimately angry and upset. Not by the trade because we probably got the better player, but by the fact that at the time I felt that you just don't trade a guy like Clark. I think for some of us older folks, it that passion we're hoping to find in Max Domi. I don't need him to play like Clark, but I want him to care like Clark did.

Come forward 30 years and I'd trade any of the core-4 for the right return as long as it helped us now - I just don't see that type of deal happening from the type of players apt to be moved.

- Monkeypunk

The team is, as ever, unbalanced.

Vegas had 96 goals from their top 4 goal scorers (March, Jack, Smith, and Stone) and managed to win the Cup. The Leafs had 146 goals from the Core 4.

To put it further into perspective, the Leafs, as a team, scored only 11 more goals than VGK.

Now, of course, it's reductive to compare two teams in this manner but it does provide some fodder for criticizing the necessity of locking up 50%(-ish) of your cap space into 4 "elite" players instead of diversifying your portfolio.

To wit: the Leafs don't need to have William Nylander to score goals or a player of his caliber to replace them. We don't need to "win" a hockey trade in a deal for him. The trick is finding the right pieces - the right alchemy - that can provide more balance throughout the lineup.

Perhaps it's trading Willie for a piece that is also on an expiring contract? Maybe someone like Brett Pesce? (who may block the trade, but you get the idea)

At the end of the day, I do think we fall in love with "star" players and worry that if we trade - or lose - any of them the sky will fall and we'll back into the "dark times."

I think the team still has some holes in terms of depth scoring and reliable, shutdown defenders. Nylander could bring some of those assets back to the team.

It's not likely that he's traded, but it's not the end of the world if we do.
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Jul 27 @ 10:37 AM ET
he has the stats to ask for around 10M
- Symba007


Maybe ...so do the guys taking 8.8-9.75.

I honestly think if Tree had 9.5 on the table it'd be done. I think it's the Tree that's firmly rooted.


god I'm good .....
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Jul 27 @ 10:41 AM ET
Galaga had a bug where you left one of the left side bee ships alone and let it swoop in and shoot and just dodge it - for like 15 or 20 minutes - and then it would just stop shooting. Then you blow it up and no one shoots at you the rest of the game. We'd pile up high scores and play for hours on one quarter. Which now really stands out as a glaring sign that we were all really desperate for just ANYTHING to do.

I've never played anything as much as I played NHL 94, and I am a gaming geek. I've played Doom, Quake, Civilization, Master of Magic, Master of Orion, blah, blah, blah - games in my 20s when I had all the time in the world - and nothing came close to how much time I spent playing NHL 94.

Zaxxon and Pole Position rocked. I was also a huge fan of Elevator Action and Spy Hunter.

- Monkeypunk


Dude, I loved Spy Hunter. I also liked that sit-down game where you were a fighter plane, I forget what it was called. And Rampage, where you were monsters destroying buildings. And the classic Pac-Man, which was totally ripped off by Call Of Duty: Zombies.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Jul 27 @ 10:44 AM ET
The team is, as ever, unbalanced.

Vegas had 96 goals from their top 4 goal scorers (March, Jack, Smith, and Stone) and managed to win the Cup. The Leafs had 146 goals from the Core 4.

To put it further into perspective, the Leafs, as a team, scored only 11 more goals than VGK.

Now, of course, it's reductive to compare two teams in this manner but it does provide some fodder for criticizing the necessity of locking up 50%(-ish) of your cap space into 4 "elite" players instead of diversifying your portfolio.

To wit: the Leafs don't need to have William Nylander to score goals or a player of his caliber to replace them. We don't need to "win" a hockey trade in a deal for him. The trick is finding the right pieces - the right alchemy - that can provide more balance throughout the lineup.

Perhaps it's trading Willie for a piece that is also on an expiring contract? Maybe someone like Brett Pesce? (who may block the trade, but you get the idea)

At the end of the day, I do think we fall in love with "star" players and worry that if we trade - or lose - any of them the sky will fall and we'll back into the "dark times."

I think the team still has some holes in terms of depth scoring and reliable, shutdown defenders. Nylander could bring some of those assets back to the team.

It's not likely that he's traded, but it's not the end of the world if we do.

- mjones242

This.
100% this.
But he has to be traded if not signed by tdl imo
Adam French
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Isn't Cooley 5"11? You know who else is 5"11? Sydney Crosby. - Scabeh
Joined: 04.06.2011

Jul 27 @ 10:54 AM ET
Ummmm...what? Are you sure Zezel or Atomic_Wedgie aren't the 39th top prospect? They probably have done better in the ECHL simply by being marathon runners.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Jul 27 @ 10:57 AM ET
The team is, as ever, unbalanced.

Vegas had 96 goals from their top 4 goal scorers (March, Jack, Smith, and Stone) and managed to win the Cup. The Leafs had 146 goals from the Core 4.

To put it further into perspective, the Leafs, as a team, scored only 11 more goals than VGK.

Now, of course, it's reductive to compare two teams in this manner but it does provide some fodder for criticizing the necessity of locking up 50%(-ish) of your cap space into 4 "elite" players instead of diversifying your portfolio.

To wit: the Leafs don't need to have William Nylander to score goals or a player of his caliber to replace them. We don't need to "win" a hockey trade in a deal for him. The trick is finding the right pieces - the right alchemy - that can provide more balance throughout the lineup.

Perhaps it's trading Willie for a piece that is also on an expiring contract? Maybe someone like Brett Pesce? (who may block the trade, but you get the idea)

At the end of the day, I do think we fall in love with "star" players and worry that if we trade - or lose - any of them the sky will fall and we'll back into the "dark times."

I think the team still has some holes in terms of depth scoring and reliable, shutdown defenders. Nylander could bring some of those assets back to the team.

It's not likely that he's traded, but it's not the end of the world if we do.

- mjones242


We also allowed 5 fewer goals. So we had better offense and better defense. It's hard to argue that the team is horribly imbalanced simply by looking at the dollars attributed to talent.

If you can find great value at low prices in some areas then you can allocate more dollars into other areas. Would I like a true #1 defenseman like Makar or Pietrangelo? Yes, obviously. But you're not getting that for Nylander or Marner or Tavares. You either develop them or you get lucky and land them during Free Agency.

I stand by the statement that I'm not really attached to any of the core-4, but I do like them. If you remove Nylander, you will likely lose 20-25 goals. Bringing in a solid defenseman means that they need to displace one of the 6 defenseman already there, bumping the current #6 out to #7 - and in doing so their inclusion reduces the number of goals against by at least 30 to make a nominal difference.

There are no trades available that will have that impact of a 30 goal swing that I see. There are made up trades like we'll trade Nylander and our broken prospect to Calgary for their #1 centre and #1 defenseman. Calgary's motivation is that they would clearly like to be worse and they will be so mad at this ludicrous trade offer that they'll accept it in a blind rage. You know, like when you're talking to your teenage son and you have to leave because the screaming inside your head is getting so loud you're about to throw something.

If something were available that had a great impact, then yeah obviously - but I just don't see it. Like the Hellebuyck angle - he's better than Sammy, but is he going to save 30 more goals than Sammy? Based on last year's numbers, Sammy was 10 goals better and Hellebuyck was 1 expected goal better. You're angling that Helly would be a game breaker in the playoffs like Bobrovsky.

Or two lesser players to even out the roster - so you get a . . . let's say Lou is really senile and you figure a Wahlstrom + Dobson for Nylander + Liljegren (because the $$ work) . . . Are you 30 goals to the positive because we balanced more money into the blue line? Wahlstrom scores 15. Is Dobson +15 better than Liljegren?

That's my ultimate problem. People want to make a move to make a move but the moves need to actually move the needle. Which is a lot of moving.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Jul 27 @ 10:57 AM ET
Dude, I loved Spy Hunter. I also liked that sit-down game where you were a fighter plane, I forget what it was called. And Rampage, where you were monsters destroying buildings. And the classic Pac-Man, which was totally ripped off by Call Of Duty: Zombies.
- Zezel


I think it was 1942? Maybe 1941?
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Jul 27 @ 11:02 AM ET
This.
100% this.
But he has to be traded if not signed by tdl imo

- Fakepartofme


Why?

Legitimate question. What are you getting for him at the TDL? Prospects & picks.

What are you doing with those prospects and picks? Using them to acquire another rental? A lesser Nylander with more $$ allocated but one more year of term?

Or you're keeping the prospects and picks but weakening your position going into the playoffs? And we'll see those bottom-6 players we drafted between 24-32 slip in as tweener NHLers around 2028?

Hockey trades aren't made at the TDL. I bet that Nylander moves in a hockey trade or he plays out the year. At best he gets moved in the summer to a team that wants exclusive negotiating rights.
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Jul 27 @ 11:07 AM ET
Ummmm...what? Are you sure Zezel or Atomic_Wedgie aren't the 39th top prospect? They probably have done better in the ECHL simply by being marathon runners.
- AdamFrench


My ice skating is almost to a David Stekel level now, I'm aiming for bottom pair RD on the Canucks.
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Jul 27 @ 11:07 AM ET
I think it was 1942? Maybe 1941?
- Monkeypunk


Yeah, 1942 I think
senstroll
Location: Leafs AAV Champs, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Jul 27 @ 11:13 AM ET
I think it was 1942? Maybe 1941?
- Monkeypunk


played the crap out of 1942 on NES, fun shmup
mjones242
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Pretentious Beer Snob, ON
Joined: 06.22.2015

Jul 27 @ 11:14 AM ET
We also allowed 5 fewer goals. So we had better offense and better defense. It's hard to argue that the team is horribly imbalanced simply by looking at the dollars attributed to talent.

If you can find great value at low prices in some areas then you can allocate more dollars into other areas. Would I like a true #1 defenseman like Makar or Pietrangelo? Yes, obviously. But you're not getting that for Nylander or Marner or Tavares. You either develop them or you get lucky and land them during Free Agency.

I stand by the statement that I'm not really attached to any of the core-4, but I do like them. If you remove Nylander, you will likely lose 20-25 goals. Bringing in a solid defenseman means that they need to displace one of the 6 defenseman already there, bumping the current #6 out to #7 - and in doing so their inclusion reduces the number of goals against by at least 30 to make a nominal difference.

There are no trades available that will have that impact of a 30 goal swing that I see. There are made up trades like we'll trade Nylander and our broken prospect to Calgary for their #1 centre and #1 defenseman. Calgary's motivation is that they would clearly like to be worse and they will be so mad at this ludicrous trade offer that they'll accept it in a blind rage. You know, like when you're talking to your teenage son and you have to leave because the screaming inside your head is getting so loud you're about to throw something.

If something were available that had a great impact, then yeah obviously - but I just don't see it. Like the Hellebuyck angle - he's better than Sammy, but is he going to save 30 more goals than Sammy? Based on last year's numbers, Sammy was 10 goals better and Hellebuyck was 1 expected goal better. You're angling that Helly would be a game breaker in the playoffs like Bobrovsky.

Or two lesser players to even out the roster - so you get a . . . let's say Lou is really senile and you figure a Wahlstrom + Dobson for Nylander + Liljegren (because the $$ work) . . . Are you 30 goals to the positive because we balanced more money into the blue line? Wahlstrom scores 15. Is Dobson +15 better than Liljegren?

That's my ultimate problem. People want to make a move to make a move but the moves need to actually move the needle. Which is a lot of moving.

- Monkeypunk

Allowing 5 less goals is negligible and not much of an indicator that the Leafs necessarily had better team defence.

Also, the assertion that this team scores 20-25 less goals without Willie is a helluva statement. There are plenty of factors that could mitigate Willie's missing 30-40 goals - newly acquired Domi and Bertuzzi may offset that by themselves let alone whomever returns in any deal for Willie. Does Willie even repeat his performance from last season? Who knows?

Per the Helly angle, yes, I do think he saves 30 goals (or more) than Samsonov. The Leafs are a far superior team to WPG and I think if Sammy played there last season his numbers aren't nearly as competitive nor comparable. Pure speculation? Perhaps, but I think it is pretty clear that Helly is a far superior goalie. (again, this trade is not happening, but I take issue with your analysis)
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Jul 27 @ 11:26 AM ET
Ummmm...what? Are you sure Zezel or Atomic_Wedgie aren't the 39th top prospect? They probably have done better in the ECHL simply by being marathon runners.
- AdamFrench

I remember reading a story about a Leafs prospect who was initially disappointed that he had been sent to the St. John's Maple Leafs.

But he said it turned out to be a blessing, because it forced him to just focus on hockey.

His entire world was within a few city blocks - go to the arena, go to the gym, go back to his apartment.

Unfortunately, I would be the opposite.

Go to George Street, go to apartment. Go to George Street, go to STD clinic. Go to George Street...

Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Jul 27 @ 11:52 AM ET
Allowing 5 less goals is negligible and not much of an indicator that the Leafs necessarily had better team defence.

Also, the assertion that this team scores 20-25 less goals without Willie is a helluva statement. There are plenty of factors that could mitigate Willie's missing 30-40 goals - newly acquired Domi and Bertuzzi may offset that by themselves let alone whomever returns in any deal for Willie. Does Willie even repeat his performance from last season? Who knows?

Per the Helly angle, yes, I do think he saves 30 goals (or more) than Samsonov. The Leafs are a far superior team to WPG and I think if Sammy played there last season his numbers aren't nearly as competitive nor comparable. Pure speculation? Perhaps, but I think it is pretty clear that Helly is a far superior goalie. (again, this trade is not happening, but I take issue with your analysis)

- mjones242


Well, being objective - you lose Bunting's 20-25 and Kerfoot's 10-15, so let's meet in the middle there and call that 35.

Tyler Bertuzzi's career high is 30. In 2021, Bertuzzi paced to 36 goals which was vastly superior to any other season in his career. On average you're probably looking at around 20-25 goals from Bertuzzi - a very admirable Bunting replacement and a better net front presence.

Based on proration to an 82 game season, Domi has been a 20 goal scorer 3 times and I see no reason why he couldn't do that again here.

So I'll say that you get 5-10 goals surplus from these two over losing Kerfoot and Bunting.

Nylander is a 35-40 goal scorer, pacing to 37 goals in 2019-20, 34 lastd year, and 40 this year. He is 27 and in his prime and playing for his next contract. I have no tea leaves, but they sure as hell arrange themselves to look like he'll repeat his 40 goal season.

So when I say you want to find a 30 goal swing in any Nylander deal, that's my supporting work ^^.


I agree it's hypothetical, but when it comes to Helly vs. Sammy, I'm going by last year's numbers. Hellebuyck had 33.6 goals saved above expected in 3778 minutes. Samsonov have 21 goals saved above expected in 2476 minutes. If you prorate Samsonov's minutes to Hellebuyck's minutes, you get 32.4, or a difference of 1.2 goals.

If you want to be more realistic and meet them both in the middle at 55 games, then it comes closer to 28.9 to 27.8. The challenge here is can Sammy repeat? Does Helly start to show some age or wear? Can Sammy play that many minutes and still be decent? Hellebuyck at least has a proven track record.

But given that Hellebuyck - in one of his better recent years - in fact it's his absolute best season for GSAx by a large margin over his second best of 19.9GSAx that you have to ask - does Hellebuyck give you a 30 goal swing on his own?
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Jul 27 @ 11:56 AM ET
Galaga had a bug where you left one of the left side bee ships alone and let it swoop in and shoot and just dodge it - for like 15 or 20 minutes - and then it would just stop shooting. Then you blow it up and no one shoots at you the rest of the game. We'd pile up high scores and play for hours on one quarter. Which now really stands out as a glaring sign that we were all really desperate for just ANYTHING to do.

I've never played anything as much as I played NHL 94, and I am a gaming geek. I've played Doom, Quake, Civilization, Master of Magic, Master of Orion, blah, blah, blah - games in my 20s when I had all the time in the world - and nothing came close to how much time I spent playing NHL 94.

Zaxxon and Pole Position rocked. I was also a huge fan of Elevator Action and Spy Hunter.

- Monkeypunk


Never knew that about Galaga.

We just taped dental floss to a quarter and dropped it into the machine slowly until the credit came up and then jigged it up and down to rack up credits. Worked on the Tron table game and the Juno First console
mjones242
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Pretentious Beer Snob, ON
Joined: 06.22.2015

Jul 27 @ 12:05 PM ET
Well, being objective - you lose Bunting's 20-25 and Kerfoot's 10-15, so let's meet in the middle there and call that 35.

Tyler Bertuzzi's career high is 30. In 2021, Bertuzzi paced to 36 goals which was vastly superior to any other season in his career. On average you're probably looking at around 20-25 goals from Bertuzzi - a very admirable Bunting replacement and a better net front presence.

Based on proration to an 82 game season, Domi has been a 20 goal scorer 3 times and I see no reason why he couldn't do that again here.

So I'll say that you get 5-10 goals surplus from these two over losing Kerfoot and Bunting.

Nylander is a 35-40 goal scorer, pacing to 37 goals in 2019-20, 34 lastd year, and 40 this year. He is 27 and in his prime and playing for his next contract. I have no tea leaves, but they sure as hell arrange themselves to look like he'll repeat his 40 goal season.

So when I say you want to find a 30 goal swing in any Nylander deal, that's my supporting work ^^.


I agree it's hypothetical, but when it comes to Helly vs. Sammy, I'm going by last year's numbers. Hellebuyck had 33.6 goals saved above expected in 3778 minutes. Samsonov have 21 goals saved above expected in 2476 minutes. If you prorate Samsonov's minutes to Hellebuyck's minutes, you get 32.4, or a difference of 1.2 goals.

If you want to be more realistic and meet them both in the middle at 55 games, then it comes closer to 28.9 to 27.8. The challenge here is can Sammy repeat? Does Helly start to show some age or wear? Can Sammy play that many minutes and still be decent? Hellebuyck at least has a proven track record.

But given that Hellebuyck - in one of his better recent years - in fact it's his absolute best season for GSAx by a large margin over his second best of 19.9GSAx that you have to ask - does Hellebuyck give you a 30 goal swing on his own?

- Monkeypunk

Kerfoot wasn't playing Top 6 minutes - I don't think we need to worry about replacing his goals. Bunting is gone but, optimistically speaking, Knies could fill that gap.

I'm not convinced the Leafs total goal output will suffer 30(ish) goals if Nylander were to be traded. I think the Leafs would be able to spread those goals throughout the lineup through whatever assets are returned from Willie, and/or, other depth pieces.

The Leafs need to get stronger in their bottom 6. The Core 4 are collectively choking that potential with their nigh 50% cap hit.
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Jul 27 @ 12:30 PM ET
LEEEEEEAAAAAAAAFFFFFSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Jul 27 @ 12:31 PM ET
Yeah, 1942 I think
- Zezel

My buddies and i played the crap out of Cruising usa.
Get a couple of pitchers and drive drive drive.
We weren't 19, but the place didnt care
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Jul 27 @ 12:31 PM ET
Phoenix
Berserk 😍

- Skalapy

Berserk was so frustrating but great
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Jul 27 @ 12:31 PM ET
Kerfoot wasn't playing Top 6 minutes - I don't think we need to worry about replacing his goals. Bunting is gone but, optimistically speaking, Knies could fill that gap.

I'm not convinced the Leafs total goal output will suffer 30(ish) goals if Nylander were to be traded. I think the Leafs would be able to spread those goals throughout the lineup through whatever assets are returned from Willie, and/or, other depth pieces.

The Leafs need to get stronger in their bottom 6. The Core 4 are collectively choking that potential with their nigh 50% cap hit.

- mjones242


I mean not for nothing, but Kerfoot did play about 40% of his minutes in the top-6 with either Tavares or Matthews. He just scores like he's one of the Butabi brothers when not at the Roxbury.

Knies might be on the third line to start the year and he might just elevate that play as well. I mean maybe Knies-Kampf-Jarnkrok and Lafferty-Holmberg-Reaves . . I don't know. I'm not that concerned about the bottom-6 although it would be nice if they were a little deeper in that regard, sure. You could basically that the team was -2 in the playoffs and the bottom-6 was -1 of that and the top-6 was the other (I will note that our team's inability to consistently PK, especially in the playoffs, has been a massive problem for years).

I think what Nylander and Tavares have been missing is a big body who can win battles on the boards and I think we saw with Knies that it works.

In fact I think the core-4 as a whole just needs a complimentary player on each line who is an all day bumhole to go win battles, muck for pucks, and get in front and create distractions. If they can play with pace then they are golden - and that feels like any of Bertuzzi, Domi or Knies.

Meh. It's academic - if they move Nylander for the right parts, I am all for it.
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Jul 27 @ 12:37 PM ET
My buddies and i played the crap out of Cruising usa.
Get a couple of pitchers and drive drive drive.
We weren't 19, but the place didnt care

- Fakepartofme


I remember that one! Driving games are great for the fun of drinking and driving without the horrible consequences. Drunk and on drugs Mario Kart is awesome.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Jul 27 @ 12:48 PM ET
Well, being objective - you lose Bunting's 20-25 and Kerfoot's 10-15, so let's meet in the middle there and call that 35.

Tyler Bertuzzi's career high is 30. In 2021, Bertuzzi paced to 36 goals which was vastly superior to any other season in his career. On average you're probably looking at around 20-25 goals from Bertuzzi - a very admirable Bunting replacement and a better net front presence.

Based on proration to an 82 game season, Domi has been a 20 goal scorer 3 times and I see no reason why he couldn't do that again here.

So I'll say that you get 5-10 goals surplus from these two over losing Kerfoot and Bunting.

Nylander is a 35-40 goal scorer, pacing to 37 goals in 2019-20, 34 lastd year, and 40 this year. He is 27 and in his prime and playing for his next contract. I have no tea leaves, but they sure as hell arrange themselves to look like he'll repeat his 40 goal season.

So when I say you want to find a 30 goal swing in any Nylander deal, that's my supporting work ^^.


I agree it's hypothetical, but when it comes to Helly vs. Sammy, I'm going by last year's numbers. Hellebuyck had 33.6 goals saved above expected in 3778 minutes. Samsonov have 21 goals saved above expected in 2476 minutes. If you prorate Samsonov's minutes to Hellebuyck's minutes, you get 32.4, or a difference of 1.2 goals.

If you want to be more realistic and meet them both in the middle at 55 games, then it comes closer to 28.9 to 27.8. The challenge here is can Sammy repeat? Does Helly start to show some age or wear? Can Sammy play that many minutes and still be decent? Hellebuyck at least has a proven track record.

But given that Hellebuyck - in one of his better recent years - in fact it's his absolute best season for GSAx by a large margin over his second best of 19.9GSAx that you have to ask - does Hellebuyck give you a 30 goal swing on his own?

- Monkeypunk



This is pointless. Bunting played with AM and Marner for a large portion of his time here...Which 100% will skew his goal production.

Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Jul 27 @ 1:07 PM ET
This is pointless. Bunting played with AM and Marner for a large portion of his time here...Which 100% will skew his goal production.
- Santo_44


No it's really not. The "a fire hydrant can score with x" argument has been disproven by ALL of the other linemates who have failed to produce at the level of Bunting or Hyman when paired with Matthews and Marner. Did Bunting get opportunities he wouldn't have by playing with them? Yes. But he played with pace and capitalized on his opportunties which is why he stayed there. Do you think Bertuzzi didn't play with great players in Raymond and Larkin?

In Bertuzzi's best season he played with Larkin and Mantha. While I don't think either are as good as Matthews or Marner, Larkin has speed to kill and Mantha has size, which can be utilized to great effect in the slot.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Jul 27 @ 1:21 PM ET
Cool..no more ohtani to the jays crap.
Angels are not trading him
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