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Forums :: Blog World :: York Newbury: Canucks beat Lightning, W W W
Author Message
Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Dec 14 @ 3:58 PM ET
Wow you really have a warped perception of how others view advanced stats

Talking about them the way you do proves you haven't really been listening when others explain how they can be useful or why they're interesting to look at.

- NorthNuck

Hockey is a fast moving physical sport where analytics cannot account for let alone other circumstances that can arise. It’s at most a guide that needs long periods of sampling. Eye tests win.
Marwood
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Cumberland, BC
Joined: 03.18.2010

Dec 14 @ 4:02 PM ET
Are you fucking insane posting expected goals in here?!?!? You'll give one of these old men an aneurysm!
- NorthNuck

Once again, being a fucking idiot. Arrogant little prick.
NorthNuck
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Yellowknife, NWT
Joined: 05.30.2016

Dec 14 @ 4:02 PM ET
Hockey is a fast moving physical sport where analytics cannot account for let alone other circumstances that can arise. It’s at most a guide that needs long periods of sampling. Eye tests win.
- Nighthawk

There's no "winning" or "losing". Advanced metrics can help give a more nuanced view of how things played out or are likely to play out in the future. They're an enhancement to the eye test, not a replacement.

If you go based purely on the eye test, you would think Boeser is due to score like 55 goals this year. We all know that's not the case don't we?
NorthNuck
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Yellowknife, NWT
Joined: 05.30.2016

Dec 14 @ 4:04 PM ET
Once again, being a fucking idiot. Arrogant little prick.
- Marwood

I can only listen to so much bitching and whining before I feel compelled to say something 🤷‍♂️

If you're gonna get salty about a harmless joke don't pick fights so often
VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Dec 14 @ 4:09 PM ET
There's no "winning" or "losing". Advanced metrics can help give a more nuanced view of how things played out or are likely to play out in the future. They're an enhancement to the eye test, not a replacement.

If you go based purely on the eye test, you would think Boeser is due to score like 55 goals this year. We all know that's not the case now don't we?

- NorthNuck


You have that backwards. The eye test you would see what type of goals he scores and his style of play and know that is very unlikely. The eye test would slot him in around 37 to 42 .

The numbers or expected stats would slot him in at fifty five seeing it is based on numbers and equations.
NorthNuck
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Yellowknife, NWT
Joined: 05.30.2016

Dec 14 @ 4:10 PM ET
You have that backwards. The eye test you would see what type of goals he scores and his style of play and know that is very unlikely. The eye test would slot him in around 37 to 42 .

The numbers or expected stats would slot him in at fifty five seeing it is based on numbers and equations.

- VANTEL

They quite literally do not.
VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Dec 14 @ 4:14 PM ET
They quite literally do not.
- NorthNuck


I have never seen one person on here say Boeser is going to score 55 until you said it.


Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Dec 14 @ 4:17 PM ET
I have never seen one person on here say Boeser is going to score 55 until you said it.
- VANTEL

How about the best stat around…

Over/under 40 goals
NorthNuck
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Yellowknife, NWT
Joined: 05.30.2016

Dec 14 @ 4:17 PM ET
I have never seen one person on here say Boeser is going to score 55 until you said it.
- VANTEL

Neither have I.
NorthNuck
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Yellowknife, NWT
Joined: 05.30.2016

Dec 14 @ 4:21 PM ET
How about the best stat around…

Over/under 40 goals

- Nighthawk

That's about where I would set it. Most sites I've seen trying to project have him landing around 39.

I'll say over cause I really want to see him hit 40
VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Dec 14 @ 4:22 PM ET
How about the best stat around…

Over/under 40 goals

- Nighthawk


Brock will score 38 or 39 unless injured.
VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Dec 14 @ 4:25 PM ET
Top line Canucks.

Hoglander JTM Brock

Hughes Hronek

Demko

Hronek is the only one not involving Benning. The man was a legend, I am looking forward to his Ring of Honor night.
boonerbuck
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Not Quesnel, BC
Joined: 10.11.2005

Dec 14 @ 4:36 PM ET
Top line Canucks.

Hoglander JTM Brock

Hughes Hronek

Demko

Hronek is the only one not involving Benning. The man was a legend, I am looking forward to his Ring of Honor night.

- VANTEL


Trigger warning!


VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Dec 14 @ 4:39 PM ET
Trigger warning!



- boonerbuck

NorthNuck
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Yellowknife, NWT
Joined: 05.30.2016

Dec 14 @ 5:09 PM ET
Top line Canucks.

Hoglander JTM Brock

Hughes Hronek

Demko

Hronek is the only one not involving Benning. The man was a legend, I am looking forward to his Ring of Honor night.

- VANTEL

His name better make it on the cup in June
Bettmanhatesus
Joined: 08.10.2016

Dec 14 @ 5:41 PM ET
Top line Canucks.

Hoglander JTM Brock

Hughes Hronek

Demko

Hronek is the only one not involving Benning. The man was a legend, I am looking forward to his Ring of Honor night.

- VANTEL

Benning did some good things but the focus is always on his (frank)ups.
Makita
Referee
Vancouver Canucks
Location: #theonlyrealfan, BC
Joined: 02.16.2007

Dec 14 @ 5:57 PM ET
Wow you really have a warped perception of how others view advanced stats

Talking about them the way you do proves you haven't really been listening when others explain how they can be useful or why they're interesting to look at.

- NorthNuck

I only wrote that drivel in response to your old man having an aneurism.

.
neem55
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 02.02.2012

Dec 14 @ 6:10 PM ET
There's no "winning" or "losing". Advanced metrics can help give a more nuanced view of how things played out or are likely to play out in the future. They're an enhancement to the eye test, not a replacement.

If you go based purely on the eye test, you would think Boeser is due to score like 55 goals this year. We all know that's not the case don't we?

- NorthNuck

First statement is exactly right. Boeser stuff is up for debate imo
NorthNuck
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Yellowknife, NWT
Joined: 05.30.2016

Dec 14 @ 6:25 PM ET
Top line Canucks.

Hoglander JTM Brock

Hughes Hronek

Demko

Hronek is the only one not involving Benning. The man was a legend, I am looking forward to his Ring of Honor night.

- VANTEL

Screenshot-20231214-162448-X
NorthNuck
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Yellowknife, NWT
Joined: 05.30.2016

Dec 14 @ 6:27 PM ET
First statement is exactly right. Boeser stuff is up for debate imo
- neem55

Yeah, I think maybe I phrased it poorly. All I meant is at the most base level, someone could look at his goal total and say "Okay well if he has 21 in 29, he'll get 59 in 82"

While any rational fan knows he won't hit that because regression exists. The bigger point is that we can get an (on average) closer estimate on what that regression will look like using advanced stats. Without them you're just throwing a dart to pick a number at random, no matter how good you think your eye test is you're still guessing, just while using less data.
Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Dec 14 @ 6:40 PM ET
Benning did some good things but the focus is always on his (frank)ups.
- Bettmanhatesus

Cap management he had no clue. All of the rest is easily forgotten.
Nighthawk
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Canuckville, BC
Joined: 01.09.2015

Dec 14 @ 6:45 PM ET
Yeah, I think maybe I phrased it poorly. All I meant is at the most base level, someone could look at his goal total and say "Okay well if he has 21 in 29, he'll get 59 in 82"

While any rational fan knows he won't hit that because regression exists. The bigger point is that we can get an (on average) closer estimate on what that regression will look like using advanced stats. Without them you're just throwing a dart to pick a number at random, no matter how good you think your eye test is you're still guessing, just while using less data.

- NorthNuck

Game is played on the ice & many factors dictate results. Regression is a nonsensical word. Ebbs & flows can vary greatly & analytics are not predictive on circumstances that will actually happen. One season or partial season sampling allows the eye test to see a lot more as in line chemistry & deployment & scheduling differences etc.
VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Dec 14 @ 6:51 PM ET
Cap management he had no clue. All of the rest is easily forgotten.
- Nighthawk



17 teams over the Cap but yeah Jim was clueless. About 10 teams have lived over the cap for the last decade including the Leafs and Bolts.
Load Management
Season Ticket Holder
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Billings Spit, BC
Joined: 09.22.2019

Dec 14 @ 6:54 PM ET
Yeah, I think maybe I phrased it poorly. All I meant is at the most base level, someone could look at his goal total and say "Okay well if he has 21 in 29, he'll get 59 in 82"

While any rational fan knows he won't hit that because regression exists. The bigger point is that we can get an (on average) closer estimate on what that regression will look like using advanced stats. Without them you're just throwing a dart to pick a number at random, no matter how good you think your eye test is you're still guessing, just while using less data.

- NorthNuck


Sorry man, but it's a proven fact that your eyes and brain process information using far more data than mathematical formulas.
Bettmanhatesus
Joined: 08.10.2016

Dec 14 @ 7:08 PM ET
Gene Carr dead at 72, played for the kings and flames in the 70s.
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