Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 
Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Leafs Lead On Tampa Shrinking; Playoff Lineup Options - Part 2
Author Message
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Apr 5 @ 1:34 PM ET
A lot of people said last year that "winning a round" would be successful.

Those same people back down on that after the Florida series.

People just want more, they won't be satisfied until they win a cup.

The positive note is when they do it will be glorious. Glorious for the fans and miserable for the Leaf haters.

I'd actually be worried for some people out there that revolve their fandom and life around hating the leafs.

- Santo_44


step one: make the playoffs
step two: win round 1
step three: win round 2
step four: win round 3
step five: win the SC
step six: PLAN THE PARADE !!!!!
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Apr 5 @ 1:35 PM ET

Even just narrowing the scope to 5v5 produces numbers that are hopelessly reductive.

For example, it does not take into consideration strength of opposing lines, strength of linemates, zone starts, etc. It also uses events that are far too rare - goals for/against - to really provide any statistical meaningfulness, which, of course, is why Corsi, Fenwick, et al were created and are only slightly less flawed tools.

We all know that Domi is not a good defensive player. But how can we measure and quantify that lack of defensive prowess? +/- is not that tool and should be thrown into the trash bin.

- mjones242


I am not going to spend a lot of energy justifying +/- as a quality indicator of performance because we all know it isn't. It's a useful tool when you already understand the context of it's application - meaning that you're familiar with the participants and their deployment - as you said.

So we know Matthews plays against top competition - as does Marner, and typically this has extended to Nylander and Tavares as well, which makes sense. We know the LW side has been a litany of players - Knies, Bertuzzi, Jarnkrok, McMann, Robertson . . . we also know that they don't know what to do with Kampf. Sometimes he gets harder assignments, but that line has not been effective since losing Mikheyev and Engvall from it - but you know typically they're rolling against lower competition - the same as Robertson, Domi, Jarnkrok - and so on. Like *we* know, but you're right - there's nothing that spells it out to compare anything equivalently. You can, however, get a sense of who is getting positive results in the role they are playing in - and that can be enough sometimes.
drexel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Corn Pop was a bad dude, AB
Joined: 06.29.2006

Apr 5 @ 1:36 PM ET
It’s absolutely not a problem tho!

People are dreaming up this “problem” because they’ll find any reason to hate on Mitch.

This is what it should be.

Domi Matthews Marner
McMann Tavares Nylander
Bertuzzi Holmberg Knies
Dewar Kampf Reaves

If Mitch isn’t on the first line at the start of the game, he will be by the end.

- Arctic_AARDVARK

I dont see why you keep Domi with AM and MM. Only AM will shoot and less help in the corners. Leave BErt there and put Domi somehwere else as the pass first guy
shack67
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: NS
Joined: 07.05.2015

Apr 5 @ 1:37 PM ET
Lots of people coping with the fact that Marner is coming back.

They think he’s going to hurt Matthews’ production.

He’ll turn the freaking frogs gay!

- Arctic_AARDVARK

I think Matthews has a much better chance of hitting 70 if Marner comes back. Are there people who are stupid enough to think getting Marner back is a bad thing?
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Apr 5 @ 1:38 PM ET
So who y'all got for a first round opponent...doesn't matter? Boston, Florida or NYR.
- Pacificgem

it doesn't matter

bring on the playoffs


Nashville or LA?
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Apr 5 @ 1:38 PM ET
Screwing around on Ticketmaster as I await an email - I wish I was heading back up to Montreal this weekend.

There's a poopton of tickets left for tomorrow night, and they are already priced much lower than when I went in March.

My unedumacated guess is you'll be able to get first ten rows of lower bowl for under $250 by game time.
Arctic_AARDVARK
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Retired, ON
Joined: 07.24.2011

Apr 5 @ 1:43 PM ET
I dont see why you keep Domi with AM and MM. Only AM will shoot and less help in the corners. Leave BErt there and put Domi somehwere else as the pass first guy
- drexel

I see Domi as an everything guy..

Not excellent at puck retrieval, but he’s elevated his game playing with Matthews. I’d start him there, but switch to McMann or Knies if he’s not producing.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Apr 5 @ 1:44 PM ET
Jays for me are so unlikable simply because of Management. They won't make decisions on the fly because when they let the computer do it they have a built in excuse"We are following our process".

They will never win this way..

In fact there is no reason to have a Field Manager at this point.

- Azuredoom

since they let Anthopoulos go, I haven't followed the team and then they brought in the two from Boston (GM and Prez) and
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Apr 5 @ 1:45 PM ET
God Bless MLSE, they are selling worn-out boards:

https://auctions.realspor...east/isynmv1/prod/2720099

$500.



If you had unlimited money and were building a mancave, this could be tempting.

- Atomic Wedgie


I'm thinkin' about it ...in my garage though.
Arctic_AARDVARK
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Retired, ON
Joined: 07.24.2011

Apr 5 @ 1:45 PM ET
I think Matthews has a much better chance of hitting 70 if Marner comes back. Are there people who are stupid enough to think getting Marner back is a bad thing?
- shack67

You know how it is..

They compliment each other perfectly, but that’s not good enough for some fans.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Apr 5 @ 1:46 PM ET
It’s absolutely not a problem tho!

People are dreaming up this “problem” because they’ll find any reason to hate on Mitch.

This is what it should be.

Domi Matthews Marner
McMann Tavares Nylander
Bertuzzi Holmberg Knies
Dewar Kampf Reaves

If Mitch isn’t on the first line at the start of the game, he will be by the end.

- Arctic_AARDVARK


In some ways Keefe is an immature coach because he doesn't demonstrate a lot of patience. I mean for some things you'll see him stick with it too long and for some things which seem like a good idea, he gets away from it as soon as they have one bad shift.

My guess is - like a lot of guys who have fought to be THE guy in charge, he has a pretty solid ego - and if the idea is _his_, he probably has more time for it. If the idea comes from an assistant or from the GM or even from a player, maybe he tries it and has no patience for it and gives up on it faster. I have no idea, obviously - but we all know those people and those situations. I would imagine human nature is human nature regardless of what you're doing.

That said, he knows Marner and Matthews do work well together and in a situation where they are struggling for offense, you put them together. But in a situation where maybe you aren't struggling . . . being able to roll out 3 offensive threats and a grind line isn't a bad idea.

In the above deployment - you have Matthews who is good defensively, Bertuzzi who is a spastic chaos device, but creates positive results, and Domi who is Marner-lite without the defensive posturing. That said most of Marner's positive defensive metrics come on the PK, not at 5v5. You have JT and McMann who aren't the best defensively. McMann has taken strides but has a long way to go before you'd consider him reliable - and paired with Nylander, that line is a problem all day long - so replace Nylander with Marner and at least you're getting more defensive posturing out of that position.

Putting Nylander with Holmberg and Knies is not a bad idea. Given that they would likely be deployed against bottom-6 players, Knies has size, Holmberg has work ethic, and Nylander can probably outskate most problems he's apt to face. Holmberg brings more defensive acumen, but he also has a lot to learn yet, too.

But if he tries this and we're down 2-0 to the Habs after 1, you can bet the entire plan is crumpled in a bin somewhere in the back of the arena.
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I AM MY OWN DAMN SOURCE!, NY
Joined: 11.04.2010

Apr 5 @ 1:47 PM ET
If y’all are bored and want some interesting back reading to kill some me time head over to the Sabres blog, and start on page 39.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Apr 5 @ 1:48 PM ET
Awesome. I want them to try this. Like Pittsburgh when they put Phil The Thrill on the 3rd line.

Oh wait, I forgot, changing lines is BAD! Because you have to use a BLENDER.

- Zezel

blender.

frozen booze drink will be slushy going

like margaritah's!!!
Piña coladah's
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Apr 5 @ 1:49 PM ET
What's with all the signed soccer and basketball stuff?

Ohhh a signed Keon picture ....maybe it comes with a 1/2 lasagna?
Cush29
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Who Owzzzzz da' Chiefs?, ON
Joined: 12.22.2014

Apr 5 @ 1:50 PM ET
it just feels like Boston owns the leafs. doent matter who they have
- senstroll


I wonder if this is how Ottawa fans felt when the Leafs would beat them yearly in the playoffs?
senstroll
Location: Leafs AAV Champs, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Apr 5 @ 1:50 PM ET
Lots of people coping with the fact that Marner is coming back.

They think he’s going to hurt Matthews’ production.

He’ll turn the freaking frogs gay!

- Arctic_AARDVARK


wut?
dont think thats a thing
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Apr 5 @ 1:52 PM ET
If y’all are bored and want some interesting back reading to kill some me time head over to the Sabres blog, and start on page 39.
- ImThatGuy

OK peeps, I'm headed there now - will report back.
Arctic_AARDVARK
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Retired, ON
Joined: 07.24.2011

Apr 5 @ 1:52 PM ET
If y’all are bored and want some interesting back reading to kill some me time head over to the Sabres blog, and start on page 39.
- ImThatGuy

That’s just Max and Prince using burner accounts.

I’m glad they took it to a different thread, though!
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Apr 5 @ 1:53 PM ET
Lots of people coping with the fact that Marner is coming back.

They think he’s going to hurt Matthews’ production.

He’ll turn the freaking frogs gay!

- Arctic_AARDVARK

what do happy french people have to to do with this?
you trying to tell us you have jump ship and are a full Habs fan on us?




dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Apr 5 @ 1:53 PM ET
You see your DM?
- Arctic_AARDVARK

not his DM but his BM .....


it took several flush to move that sucker on
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Apr 5 @ 1:55 PM ET
I mean, it's a nice problem to have. It'd be great to have Mitch dishing to JT and Nylander down on the third like hopefully lighting teams up.

We all know Keefe is going to be doing the blender 2 minutes into Saturdays game anyways.

- Whipper

you guys and your blenders are going to make me drink on a non drinking night.
senstroll
Location: Leafs AAV Champs, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Apr 5 @ 1:56 PM ET
You know how it is..

They compliment each other perfectly, but that’s not good enough for some fans.

- Arctic_AARDVARK


who cares what line they are on.
I want whatever makes the team better and tougher to play against.

to this point, the leafs have not gotten it done, mostly with AM/MM together.. they are able to shut the leafs down as playoff series drag on and get tougher..
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Apr 5 @ 2:00 PM ET
Screwing around on Ticketmaster as I await an email - I wish I was heading back up to Montreal this weekend.

There's a poopton of tickets left for tomorrow night, and they are already priced much lower than when I went in March.

My unedumacated guess is you'll be able to get first ten rows of lower bowl for under $250 by game time.

- Atomic Wedgie

I'll keep that 250 bucks and give 90% of to my kids upcoming birthday.
man when my kids were born, I was between the waiting room watching the Leafs playoff game. I think they played FLA or Ottawa
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Apr 5 @ 2:13 PM ET
If y’all are bored and want some interesting back reading to kill some me time head over to the Sabres blog, and start on page 39.
- ImThatGuy


I'm reading a book about Qanon right now and it's heartbreaking how many sad and lonely people are captured by conspiracy fever dreams like buddy on that thread there.

It's at the point where I don't know if I even need to finish the book because it doesn't take too long to get the picture of a bunch of emotionally needy and not-too-bright rubes spouting gibberish because they have nothing and no one else to connect with.
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Apr 5 @ 2:14 PM ET
you guys and your blenders are going to make me drink on a non drinking night.
- dmnted


They should really just give the Cup to whichever team makes the fewest lineup changes during the regular season - they're just gonna win it anyway with their massive non-blender advantage.
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13  Next