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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: A Look at the Week Ahead (Sept. 25 to Oct. 2)
Author Message
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Yesterday @ 4:46 PM ET
I agree. It was a terrible problem. It has been addressed by the creation of a new task force and has begun to show positive results.
- 77rams



I'm not going to hold my breath.

THE EVIL WITHIN
Location: NJ
Joined: 11.20.2017

Yesterday @ 4:46 PM ET
šŸ˜‚ , letā€™s revisit this conversation at the 50 game mark
- ClaudeFather

I will give everyone on here a case of cold beer. šŸŗ If Ristolainen plays 50 games, and still is a āž•ļø player.
missingmike
Joined: 07.08.2011

Yesterday @ 4:48 PM ET
Stop making sense! Statistics are always manipulated to depict any desired outcome. We learned that back in high school. What happens in real life, and what you are exposed to, forms the basis of oneā€™s opinion.

If they shot the perpetrator's of these crimes, I guarantee auto theft would go down by more than 90%! Everything else thatā€™s been tried is all window dressing. I have no patience or sympathy for someone coming to steal my sh!t, or harm people I care about. Though harsh, my method works.

- Hokeeguy9

ā€œThere are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.ā€ Mark Twain
77rams
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: There's a kind of freedom in being completely screwed...
Joined: 09.12.2006

Yesterday @ 4:49 PM ET
I'm not going to hold my breath.
- MJL


C'mon. Just for 15 minutes or so?

Angus4444
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.03.2018

Yesterday @ 4:56 PM ET
The other way around, surely.

Sorry to hear that, but honestly, if you beat the poop out of them, technically, it could be aggravated assault unless you can prove that the extent of the retaliation is proportional to the threat.

If say an unarmed man breaks in, and you shoot him, that could be homicide unless you can prove he was about to physically harm you. That is the law.

- PT21

If heā€™s dead you donā€™t have to prove anything. Breaks in ? Where I live if someone breaks into my house, kicking a door in, smashing a window, if he gets by 3 German Shepherds itā€™s going to be a long night of paperwork
missingmike
Joined: 07.08.2011

Yesterday @ 4:58 PM ET
or the flyers lied to him and he wants no part of the orginization.
- hello it's me 2050

He, currently, has part of no organization. When in your book he will become accountable for his career?
Angus4444
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.03.2018

Yesterday @ 5:09 PM ET
Sorry. Not correct.

The DA has amped up efforts to rid the city of such thefts by creating a retail theft task force and changing the $500 policy you speak of.

It's only a summary offense for first timers who walk away with an item valued less that $150.

- 77rams

Thank god there on it
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Yesterday @ 5:12 PM ET
He, currently, has part of no organization. When in your book he will become accountable for his career?
- missingmike

are you privy to information as to what exactly happened between Kolosov and flyers? please share if so.

fill us all on on what went down as to why he wont report.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Yesterday @ 5:13 PM ET
Yes, recently he has but the damage has been done. His policies have resulted in non-enforcement and massive amounts of retail theft. That's just the reality. Again, go into Wal-Mart and try to get a basic item off the shelf. A lot of it is locked up behind lock and key and you have to get an associate to get it for you. I deal with the loss prevention managers. It was so bad that Philly's new mayor declared a public safety emergency to deal with the problem. Created by Krasner and his lunatic policies.
- MJL



Its ridiculous it ever got to this point to begin with. The $500 dollar policy was basically an invitation to steal. Anyone with half a brain could see that coming.
xShoot4WarAmpsx
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hamilton, ON
Joined: 06.25.2010

Yesterday @ 6:46 PM ET
so at some point you expect him to get back to when he was a 70 point plus center
- hello it's me 2050


It would be nice but it really depends on how quickly he gets his endurance back and how long he can play before he declines. I dont think he will be 100% back just after 1 season. Might take 2-3 and we dont know when his decline will hit. I think somewhere in the 60 range might be his ceiling now.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Yesterday @ 7:41 PM ET

PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: ęœØē³ åøƒäø, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Yesterday @ 9:35 PM ET
Yeah the laws can be pretty inconsistent or even nuanced from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. Of course the laws in Texas are gonna be different from those in California. Some cases can get really weird, where someone might be justified in killing someone in defense of the home but guilty of possession of an illegal firearm. Fun stuff.
- mikeyo27


I am happy to agree that the realities of issues are nuanced. But what does appear unnuanced to me is this pervasive belief here by the Trumpie types that every single thing is a conspiracy. Literally every single institution, every single data set, every single establishment fact seems to be riddled with bias.

Other than the institutions that exist to point out said bias: they are utterly immune from such scrutiny.

PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: ęœØē³ åøƒäø, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Yesterday @ 9:39 PM ET
If heā€™s dead you donā€™t have to prove anything. Breaks in ? Where I live if someone breaks into my house, kicking a door in, smashing a window, if he gets by 3 German Shepherds itā€™s going to be a long night of paperwork
- Angus4444





You sound like Dirty Harry.

Whats the paperwork for? An endoscopy for the remains of the 4th dog in the Haitian's breaker-in's stomach?

KIDDING

on the 3 German Shepherds. I adore dogs and consider them far superior to human beings. You had mentioned in the past you hunt and fish and rarely buy such proteins from groceries. Do I remember correctly? If so, is that what your dogs eat?

Don Nachbaur
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.01.2021

Yesterday @ 9:50 PM ET
I will give everyone on here a case of cold beer. šŸŗ If Ristolainen plays 50 games, and still is a āž•ļø player.
- THE EVIL WITHIN


Lmao too funny! I actually like Risto but if he plays 50 and is a plus, I'll give up beer so that will save you a case


MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Yesterday @ 9:50 PM ET
I am happy to agree that the realities of issues are nuanced. But what does appear unnuanced to me is this pervasive belief here by the Trumpie types that every single thing is a conspiracy. Literally every single institution, every single data set, every single establishment fact seems to be riddled with bias.

Other than the institutions that exist to point out said bias: they are utterly immune from such scrutiny.

- PT21


Your gullibility and naivete is showing. How easily you're manipulated by "establishment facts" The fact that you have to make the comment of Trumpie types, when you don't even know where their political alliances lie. Shows how fragile you are and unsure you are. When challenged, you can't help but resort to what you perceive is an insult. Immune from such scrutiny. LOL. That's the dead giveaway. Your comments are full of bias. Not to mention the arrogance you have of thinking that the institutions you hold sacred, as immune from scrutiny. I feel sorry for you for how programmed and brainwashed you are.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: ęœØē³ åøƒäø, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Yesterday @ 9:53 PM ET
Its ridiculous it ever got to this point to begin with. The $500 dollar policy was basically an invitation to steal. Anyone with half a brain could see that coming.
- MBFlyerfan


And you may indeed be right. But the first two questions that should immediately come to mind is to check that cause and effect are linked the way you think they are. Namely, was the spike in shoplifting in Philly occuring around the time after the $500 policy? And was it especially bad compared to other comparable cities (take any big city and use rates to control for population) which did not have such a policy?

Looks like Krasner instituted the $500 policy in 2018. But the acceleration seems to have occurred post-pandemic. Further, many large cities, such as NY and SF, also have seen sharp rises in shoplifting without any changes to their prosecution that I could find.

Under these circumstances, it seems to me that there could other factors. One is the inflation that makes things less affordable. A second could be the fall in in-person shopping which leads in turn for stores to hire smaller # of guards. A third could be a breakdown in discipline from the lack of in school attendance from Covid home schooling. A 4th is random effects.

I am not ruling out the Krasner effect. But if we distrust all stats as biased if they don't fit well with our native reflexes, we have no moral right to be critical of John Tortorella when he does largely the same thing with analytics.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Yesterday @ 10:03 PM ET
And you may indeed be right. But the first two questions that should immediately come to mind is to check that cause and effect are linked the way you think they are. Namely, was the spike in shoplifting in Philly occuring around the time after the $500 policy? And was it especially bad compared to other comparable cities (take any big city and use rates to control for population) which did not have such a policy?

Looks like Krasner instituted the $500 policy in 2018. But the acceleration seems to have occurred post-pandemic. Further, many large cities, such as NY and SF, also have seen sharp rises in shoplifting without any changes to their prosecution that I could find.

Under these circumstances, it seems to me that there could other factors. One is the inflation that makes things less affordable. A second could be the fall in in-person shopping which leads in turn for stores to hire smaller # of guards. A third could be a breakdown in discipline from the lack of in school attendance from Covid home schooling. A 4th is random effects.

I am not ruling out the Krasner effect. But if we distrust all stats as biased if they don't fit well with our native reflexes, we have no moral right to be critical of John Tortorella when he does largely the same thing with analytics.

- PT21


You need to inform yourself.

Between 2011 and 2017, there were over 2,100 cases annually of retail theft.

Krasner in 2018 directed prosecutors to charge most thefts involving merchandise valued at less than $500 as summary offenses.

In 2018 there were 1,141 cases

2019-2023 there were less than 500 cases per year

Conviction rates fell. In 2023 61% of cases charged were either withdrawn or dismissed. Only 31% of cases resulted in a guilty verdict

Screwed up liberal policies led to a huge increase of lost assets and retail theft as well as a decrease in public safety. In the name of so called criminal justice reform. We all know what it is really about. Same crap is going on around the country.






Phillywhiteout
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: West Chester, PA
Joined: 08.11.2020

Yesterday @ 10:18 PM ET
So I heard that Michkov was paired with Coots and Foerster today. I think that is more likely the line he will play with when the real season begins. Apparently the squads were divided into 2 squads today. Luchanko was on the big boy squad. I guess they are going to give him a serious look before sending him back to junior. Oh wait, are we allowed to talk hockey on here?
Hesh_
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.29.2013

Today @ 1:23 AM ET
I will give everyone on here a case of cold beer. šŸŗ If Ristolainen plays 50 games, and still is a āž•ļø player.
- THE EVIL WITHIN

Should the bottle catch lightning, is there a list to pick from, or will we get served Lionshead or some other swill?

Weihenstephaner would be nice.
Hesh_
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.29.2013

Today @ 2:34 AM ET
So I heard that Michkov was paired with Coots and Foerster today. I think that is more likely the line he will play with when the real season begins. Apparently the squads were divided into 2 squads today. Luchanko was on the big boy squad. I guess they are going to give him a serious look before sending him back to junior. Oh wait, are we allowed to talk hockey on here?
- Phillywhiteout


Well, it only makes sense to play him with everybody to see where the gel is. They gotta figure out whatā€™s best. I like him with Frost, but a guy like Coots, even though he isnā€™t the same player he was, can still teach him 200ā€™ hockey. Heā€™d be a great mentor, and can help cover him when/if he gets a bit reckless offensively and takes a chance. You know heā€™s gonna.

As for LW, both Tippett and Foerster are fine choices. Even Bee, for that matter. They all have a scoring touch.

A guy like Foerster might even really come into his own playing alongside Michkov. We know heā€™s got a hard shot. Michkovā€™s creativity may allow him to put a few more on net.

Mix it up. Ultimately I think Frost has the most to gain playing his center, but as long as itā€™s either him or Coots, itā€™s all good. I just donā€™t wanna see him with Laughton or anything like that. No offense to Laughton, heā€™s got a purpose and he plays his game. I just donā€™t think heā€™s got the touch needed to play with a potential offensive powerhouse.

As for Jett, hey, the kid is playing his heart out, but I donā€™t believe this is his year. Maybe down the road thatā€™s Michkovā€™s guy.
Hesh_
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.29.2013

Today @ 2:50 AM ET
Think about what centering Matvei means for Frost for a second.

He tallied 41 points last year and 46 the year before. Heā€™s been in and out of the doghouse much like Brink is now. This is a contract year for him.

If Frost can break 50 points, and I do believe he can if heā€™s centering MM, think about that next deal heā€™s gonna get. Itā€™s career changing. Itā€™s life changing. Michkov could put a few million more into Frostā€™s pocket every year.

Whatā€™s a young guy get if heā€™s racking up points in the low to mid 50s now? 5-6 mil? Probably on the higher end at the present rate. Without MM, he could be making, I dunno, 2 mil per year less? Probably closer to 4 per year somewhere? Or they let him go test the market?

Frost has a lot riding on this season, and Michkov could be his meal ticket.
Hesh_
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.29.2013

Today @ 2:58 AM ET
What kinda scares me about my last post is if Frost has an outstanding season playing with Matvei, gets paid, and then here comes Jett. Now Frost doesnā€™t live up to that deal. Heā€™s not the asset he was.

Maybe the Flyers get yet another young center with potential in this upcoming draft with all those picks. Someone with the potential to play sooner than later.

Now, Coots is aging. Maybe that saves Frost if Selke loses his spot on the top 6. But that means youā€™re paying Coots an exorbitant amount of money to 3rd line. Thatā€™s not good either. Heā€™s almost a trade or buyout candidate at that point. If heā€™s traded, youā€™re gonna eat salary.

But hey, I gotta stop looking at the negatives of the result is a boost in offense all the same.
Phillywhiteout
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: West Chester, PA
Joined: 08.11.2020

Today @ 5:32 AM ET
What kinda scares me about my last post is if Frost has an outstanding season playing with Matvei, gets paid, and then here comes Jett. Now Frost doesnā€™t live up to that deal. Heā€™s not the asset he was.

Maybe the Flyers get yet another young center with potential in this upcoming draft with all those picks. Someone with the potential to play sooner than later.

Now, Coots is aging. Maybe that saves Frost if Selke loses his spot on the top 6. But that means youā€™re paying Coots an exorbitant amount of money to 3rd line. Thatā€™s not good either. Heā€™s almost a trade or buyout candidate at that point. If heā€™s traded, youā€™re gonna eat salary.

But hey, I gotta stop looking at the negatives of the result is a boost in offense all the same.

- Hesh_
It's almost a forgone conclusion that the Coots contract is gonna age badly. I could also see Frost getting paid and then resting on his laurels. He doesn't seem like the most driven guy. Okay, you're right, enough with the negative perspectives. There is already enough of that to go around on here.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Today @ 7:32 AM ET
It's almost a forgone conclusion that the Coots contract is gonna age badly. I could also see Frost getting paid and then resting on his laurels. He doesn't seem like the most driven guy. Okay, you're right, enough with the negative perspectives. There is already enough of that to go around on here.
- Phillywhiteout


Frost has overcome every obstacle put in his way. From bad coaching to severe injury and missing a full season. What evidence do you have that he is not the most driven guy?
Flyers_01
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.03.2006

Today @ 7:53 AM ET
What kinda scares me about my last post is if Frost has an outstanding season playing with Matvei, gets paid, and then here comes Jett. Now Frost doesnā€™t live up to that deal. Heā€™s not the asset he was.

Maybe the Flyers get yet another young center with potential in this upcoming draft with all those picks. Someone with the potential to play sooner than later.

Now, Coots is aging. Maybe that saves Frost if Selke loses his spot on the top 6. But that means youā€™re paying Coots an exorbitant amount of money to 3rd line. Thatā€™s not good either. Heā€™s almost a trade or buyout candidate at that point. If heā€™s traded, youā€™re gonna eat salary.

But hey, I gotta stop looking at the negatives of the result is a boost in offense all the same.

- Hesh_


https://www.spotrac.com/n.../_/id/8412/sean-couturier

Full no movement until 2029 and modified no movement until 2030. 70% of his contract is considered a signing bonus which means buying him out won't help you. His contract was structured so that the Flyers have no choice but to keep him in THEIR lineup until at least the last year of the contract and even then if he doesn't want to go, he doesn't have to go.

Fletcher gave away the farm, as usual, because these long term contracts are never a problem for the person who signs them as they are long gone when the contracts age poorly. 1st line or 4th line, it all pays the same for the next 5 years. Coot's contract is one of the especially poor lifetime contracts that don't pay out at the start as well as at the end.

Nearly 10% of the cap it looks like.
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