Jeremy Laura: Red Wings to sign Arvid Holm? Augustine/Redmond get KIWICLO deal

I would trade Augustine now and not wait until he decides he wants to go back for a 4th year and become a UFA. At that point his rights will be pretty worthless and they will lose him for nothing.

I would also stay the hell away from NCAA players as much as possible in drafts until the NHL closes that UFA loophole now that they get paid to play college hockey.

I do feel Yzerman might have brought this onto himself with Augustine. His need to overload the roster with 3 goalies with NHL experience and the fact Cossa has played 1 game and he didn't even start it since he turned pro. Augustine probably sees that and knows he's going to be stuck in the AHL for 3 years with the Wings so might as well stay in college for 2 years and go to a team that won't burry him in the AHL for 3 years.

I would trade Augustine now and not wait until he decides he wants to go back for a 4th year and become a UFA. At that point his rights will be pretty worthless and they will lose him for nothing.

I would also stay the hell away from NCAA players as much as possible in drafts until the NHL closes that UFA loophole now that they get paid to play college hockey.

I do feel Yzerman might have brought this onto himself with Augustine. His need to overload the roster with 3 goalies with NHL experience and the fact Cossa has played 1 game and he didn't even start it since he turned pro. Augustine probably sees that and knows he's going to be stuck in the AHL for 3 years with the Wings so might as well stay in college for 2 years and go to a team that won't burry him in the AHL for 3 years.
- dcz28

There are a few issues at play. As far as I’ve heard, they were willing to ELC Augustine last year but it was a no go. The 3 goalie system sucks, but with injuries we’ve basically needed to use it. From talking to Watson, Augustine was high on the radar. This is a tough one. If they can’t get a commitment by December that may be the way to go.

Here’s the NCAA problem. Pro jr players can transfer in now. You still only have 50 contract spaces. So you draft a player who heads to pro or even Europe. Their agent gets them an NIL deal and in year 2 they can go to the NCAA. Unless you sign a prospect after the draft you have no idea if they’ll end up in college or not. That’s why I did so many videos on it. This has completely changed the landscape and big Universities (U of M, MSU in Michigan) can and have scouted pro jr/unsigned prospects and possibly even European players. If you go back to the interview I did with Alex Cotton all the prospects are well aware of the ability for pro players to transfer in. If they can get Augustine to commit, that’s not a goalie you just want to move. However, if by December/January they can’t get the conversation that may be a different story.

There are a few issues at play. As far as I’ve heard, they were willing to ELC Augustine last year but it was a no go. The 3 goalie system sucks, but with injuries we’ve basically needed to use it. From talking to Watson, Augustine was high on the radar. This is a tough one. If they can’t get a commitment by December that may be the way to go.

Here’s the NCAA problem. Pro jr players can transfer in now. You still only have 50 contract spaces. So you draft a player who heads to pro or even Europe. Their agent gets them an NIL deal and in year 2 they can go to the NCAA. Unless you sign a prospect after the draft you have no idea if they’ll end up in college or not. That’s why I did so many videos on it. This has completely changed the landscape and big Universities (U of M, MSU in Michigan) can and have scouted pro jr/unsigned prospects and possibly even European players. If you go back to the interview I did with Alex Cotton all the prospects are well aware of the ability for pro players to transfer in. If they can get Augustine to commit, that’s not a goalie you just want to move. However, if by December/January they can’t get the conversation that may be a different story.
- Jeremy Laura

Don't need a 3rd NHL goalie on the roster when you have Cossa and a vet like Campbell in the AHL.

I would trade Augustine now since he wouldn't sign. Next summer he won't have value if again he's not willing to sign. Wings have another young goalie to replace him in the system in Rudy Guimond. 1.74 GAA and .940 S% this season in the QMJHL and his playoff numbers so far are even better in 2 games with a 1.50 GAA and .946 S%.

As good of a prospect as Augustine is, i wouldn't play games with him. He won't sign now then see ya.

Don't need a 3rd NHL goalie on the roster when you have Cossa and a vet like Campbell in the AHL.

I would trade Augustine now since he wouldn't sign. Next summer he won't have value if again he's not willing to sign. Wings have another young goalie to replace him in the system in Rudy Guimond. 1.74 GAA and .940 S% this season in the QMJHL and his playoff numbers so far are even better in 2 games with a 1.50 GAA and .946 S%.

As good of a prospect as Augustine is, i wouldn't play games with him. He won't sign now then see ya.
- dcz28

Ok, so go down the list. You take a goalie from the AHL, they have to take a goalie from the ECHL who gets a goalie from….regardless, I disagree on Augustine unless they can’t get the agent/player to have a conversation over the summer or by December. He’ll have a full year of eligibility and plenty of teams that will be interested. I don’t think there’s a better goalie in the pipeline than Augustine at this point. Each league is different obviously. The NHL needs to get to the table with the NCAA. Bettman is retiring and didn’t do anything when the CHL lawsuit was decided. So, even the goalie in the “Q” could opt for the NCAA and make more money. Agents were part of the lawsuit and get commissions on the payments if they go through an exchange. There is no pro jr level worldwide at this point where an unsigned player can’t go and again, you only have 50 slots. So a prospect, at this point, has to quit college but doesn’t have to leave jr or Europe after signing an ELC. That should be quickly taken care of if you can get to the table and design a modified agreement where the team pays NIL via bonus and retain the prospect who would then flip to a regular ELC after the NCAA career is done. Give 4 slots per team for NCAA contracts, 1 per year.

Ok, so go down the list. You take a goalie from the AHL, they have to take a goalie from the ECHL who gets a goalie from….regardless, I disagree on Augustine unless they can’t get the agent/player to have a conversation over the summer or by December. He’ll have a full year of eligibility and plenty of teams that will be interested. I don’t think there’s a better goalie in the pipeline than Augustine at this point. Each league is different obviously. The NHL needs to get to the table with the NCAA. Bettman is retiring and didn’t do anything when the CHL lawsuit was decided. So, even the goalie in the “Q” could opt for the NCAA and make more money. Agents were part of the lawsuit and get commissions on the payments if they go through an exchange. There is no pro jr level worldwide at this point where an unsigned player can’t go and again, you only have 50 slots. So a prospect, at this point, has to quit college but doesn’t have to leave jr or Europe after signing an ELC. That should be quickly taken care of if you can get to the table and design a modified agreement where the team pays NIL via bonus and retain the prospect who would then flip to a regular ELC after the NCAA career is done. Give 4 slots per team for NCAA contracts, 1 per year.
- Jeremy Laura

Wings have 4 goalies right now for the AHL/ECHL in Cossa, Campbell, Alexander and Gylander. They have more than enough plus the ECHL usually have one of their own signed goalies anyways. The Wings can also sign another Campbell type if they want to. I would imagine Guimond will turn pro and likely sign a contract after his playoffs are over. He's turning 20 in May so i expect him to be in GR or Toledo next season anyways. This is not an issue.

Goalies don't have great value in trades to begin with but if he commits to a 4th year of college, why would any team give up anything when they know he will become a UFA and sign where he wants? They can just wait and try and get him for nothing. Maybe they trade a mid to late pick if they hear he might be open to sign with them once he's done school but if that's the case, they would probably just wait and give up nothing.

To me he had to sign to turn pro now. He didn't so he needs to go before he has no value or they lose him for nothing. Add him to a package for a player that helps this team next season or put him in a package with the Wings first to move up in the draft and try and get a difference maker at the top of the draft. It's over with him in my mind so i would move on.

Wings have 4 goalies right now for the AHL/ECHL in Cossa, Campbell, Alexander and Gylander. They have more than enough plus the ECHL usually have one of their own signed goalies anyways. The Wings can also sign another Campbell type if they want to. I would imagine Guimond will turn pro and likely sign a contract after his playoffs are over. He's turning 20 in May so i expect him to be in GR or Toledo next season anyways. This is not an issue.

Goalies don't have great value in trades to begin with but if he commits to a 4th year of college, why would any team give up anything when they know he will become a UFA and sign where he wants? They can just wait and try and get him for nothing. Maybe they trade a mid to late pick if they hear he might be open to sign with them once he's done school but if that's the case, they would probably just wait and give up nothing.

To me he had to sign to turn pro now. He didn't so he needs to go before he has no value or they lose him for nothing. Add him to a package for a player that helps this team next season or put him in a package with the Wings first to move up in the draft and try and get a difference maker at the top of the draft. It's over with him in my mind so i would move on.
- dcz28

Again, I’ll go back to the reality that in the 3 goalie system we’ve actually used all 3 goalies. Lyon didn’t get his first run until it was necessary and at one point we still had to do a call up. So for the past 2 seasons, we’ve seen all 3 net minders get in, Campbell has been called up this year, so has Cossa. Talbot was on the shelf for a few, we moved on from Husso, Lyon got hurt. They may switch back to the 2 goalie system and that’s preferable. But for the past 2 years it’s actually been used.

For Augustine, he’s going into his 3rd year. I’ll say it a 3rd time, you talk during the summer and if by December you can’t get a commitment, then go for it. He’s had a lot of eyes on him and should get decent return. He’s played on the world stage as well as winning big 10 championships as a Freshman and Sophomore. If the player or agent won’t have the conversation over the summer or by the end of the year, it’s time unless someone at draft time has an offer and asks about availability. The NCAA issue is wide ranging and completely wide open. Players have to report to teams and teams have to report to schools how much NIL is being paid, but there’s already one school under investigation for under reporting. Hockey is the only major sport I can see where a drafted prospect enters as a freshman. So it has a unique issue. And again, a team can’t sign a prospect and send them to college. Only kids without an ELC can go, even though they could have played pro jr or pro European jr. Those programs also allow a signed prospect to play. Whether we agree on the value of Augustine, it’s clear that this issue quickly got out of hand in Football and Basketball, now it’s hockey’s turn to see where it goes. The new CBA is coming. Teams could opt to try and add 2 years to collegiate rights and close that loophole but they’d have to give up something. Agents and players don’t want to see those rights extended, so they have to work (opinion) with the NCAA to get some kind of allowance on an ELC.

We’re making an awful lot of assumptions with exactly zero amount of information. People are ready to trade the top amateur goalie in the world, because they assume he doesn’t want to play for the Wings. We have no information on why he chose to stay another year, we have no insight on his thoughts about being a Wing, and we have no information on his training and development plans. We have no idea about his relationship with Yzerman or discussions they have had over the past few years.

He’s a local kid who played his entire amateur career in Michigan. He could have gone to any NCAA team in the country, but he chose to stay in his home state, first committing to Michigan and then MSU. He plays for a former Wings coach, by choice. He has a fantastic development coach in DeMichiel, MSU has fantastic facilities and there is no other player on the team who gets even remotely close to the ovation Trey gets every time his name is called.

MSU has some major studs coming in next year and possibly Howard and Savage back. For all we know, maybe he’s furious they were bounced early in the Frozen Four twice and he wants to go out a winner. The fact is, we know nothing. And by the way, come on, everyone knows the Wings aren’t going to carry three goalies forever, it’s what they have to do when they have 3 mediocre goalies with a history of injuries.

It’s entirely possible Augustine’s plan is to wait it out until free agency. I wouldn’t even really blame him for that, since you can make a pretty good case that it would be in almost any top NCAA goalie’s best interest.

It’s also entirely possible he is still 100% committed to signing with the Red Wings and has simply decided that he’d rather take another crack at winning a natty for NSU than fight for playing time in GR next year. I get why some people might question that decision, but I would argue (and have argued) that because it’s unlikely Augustine will get a real NHL shot until 2-3 years from now anyway, it probably doesn’t really matter for his long term development whether he plays NCAA or AHL this year. You could even make the argument that an extra developmentally unnecessary year of AHL wear and tear later might be a net negative compared than an extra developmentally unnecessary year in college now. Especially if an influx of CHL players into the NCAA next year raises the quality of competition by a noticeable degree.

So, maybe Augustine is stringing the Wings along and going to FA, or maybe he’s all in on going pro with Detroit but feels it's best to delay it another year. We don’t really have enough details to say either way. We know that Detroit offered him a contract and he turned it down. But that doesn’t tell us anything about the relationship. Did Yzerman make a hard sell and is he ticked off at the rejection? Or was the conversation more like “we’re holding a spot for you in the org if you want it but the choice is yours”? We don’t know.

I’m not opposed in principle to trading Augustine if the guy seems like he’s tracking toward running out the clock and picking his own team but I guess I’ll just have to leave it up to Yzerman and Co. to decide if that’s what’s actually going on.

It’s entirely possible Augustine’s plan is to wait it out until free agency. I wouldn’t even really blame him for that, since you can make a pretty good case that it would be in almost any top NCAA goalie’s best interest.

It’s also entirely possible he is still 100% committed to signing with the Red Wings and has simply decided that he’d rather take another crack at winning a natty for NSU than fight for playing time in GR next year. I get why some people might question that decision, but I would argue (and have argued) that because it’s unlikely Augustine will get a real NHL shot until 2-3 years from now anyway, it probably doesn’t really matter for his long term development whether he plays NCAA or AHL this year. You could even make the argument that an extra developmentally unnecessary year of AHL wear and tear later might be a net negative compared than an extra developmentally unnecessary year in college now. Especially if an influx of CHL players into the NCAA next year raises the quality of competition by a noticeable degree.

So, maybe Augustine is stringing the Wings along and going to FA, or maybe he’s all in on going pro with Detroit but feels it's best to delay it another year. We don’t really have enough details to say either way. We know that Detroit offered him a contract and he turned it down. But that doesn’t tell us anything about the relationship. Did Yzerman make a hard sell and is he ticked off at the rejection? Or was the conversation more like “we’re holding a spot for you in the org if you want it but the choice is yours”? We don’t know.

I’m not opposed in principle to trading Augustine if the guy seems like he’s tracking toward running out the clock and picking his own team but I guess I’ll just have to leave it up to Yzerman and Co. to decide if that’s what’s actually going on.
- Sven22

This is why I spent the weekend digging for rules and stumbled on the NIL store and the KIWICLO deal. One thing we do know for certain is that money is on the table at MSU. A brand new line of clothing with the logo would lose a lot of value if the player had moved on. This is definitely on the office to make sure the communication is open. The question of developmental benefit comes back. ASP’s decision to return to Sweden was criticized fairly heavily at some points. Still, he’s playing against former pros in a men’s league though on different ice. Is Augustine near the developmental ceiling in college? Regardless, the difference is that ASP signed his ELC and could still play in his preferred league. Augustine can’t. The NHL and GMs should have been at the table a year ago pointing out this significant difference. Personal thoughts of course

We’re making an awful lot of assumptions with exactly zero amount of information. People are ready to trade the top amateur goalie in the world, because they assume he doesn’t want to play for the Wings. We have no information on why he chose to stay another year, we have no insight on his thoughts about being a Wing, and we have no information on his training and development plans. We have no idea about his relationship with Yzerman or discussions they have had over the past few years.

He’s a local kid who played his entire amateur career in Michigan. He could have gone to any NCAA team in the country, but he chose to stay in his home state, first committing to Michigan and then MSU. He plays for a former Wings coach, by choice. He has a fantastic development coach in DeMichiel, MSU has fantastic facilities and there is no other player on the team who gets even remotely close to the ovation Trey gets every time his name is called.

MSU has some major studs coming in next year and possibly Howard and Savage back. For all we know, maybe he’s furious they were bounced early in the Frozen Four twice and he wants to go out a winner. The fact is, we know nothing. And by the way, come on, everyone knows the Wings aren’t going to carry three goalies forever, it’s what they have to do when they have 3 mediocre goalies with a history of injuries.
- bluelineenforcer

You’re right in this, all we know is : Trey is staying in school, and now we know of at least 2 deals where he can be compensated. We saw a QB withdraw from the NFL draft because he will make more at Miami next year than he would based on estimated draft position (making 3.2 million). The difference, of course, is that hockey players can already be drafted and enter school as long as they don’t sign an ELC. As long as communication is open, I don’t want to see this kid go. But, as Sven reiterated, the closer you get to UFA status the more leverage you have. An ELC is an ELC, but side money in endorsements, bonus schedules and frankly opportunity are a real draw. This generation is very aware of available compensation and the loyalty aspect isn’t nearly as strong as it was 20 years ago. You’re a pro, and I respect your take. I disagree that we know nothing. We know the player is being offered NIL compensation now (see NIL store link in the write up) and that he’s turned down the ELC. We also know he’s only one season from UFA status after this year. I think that is information at least worth considering.

Go Spartans! Love Trey. I hope he helps them win a championship… ironically the Spartans didn’t win with Ryan Miller as killer of a college goalie he was.