Problem is Smyth has been like this for the past few years, odds are it's no changing.
- Lahey

That's fine, it doesn't matter when he scores.... just that he scores at that right. The 2 points earned in Nov count just the same as the 2 points earned in March.

I'm saying he'll bounce back to the 8% - 10% range from the 3%-4% range that he was at for the last 50ish games.
- Zombie

Isn't it safe to assume he'll drop from the 20% in the first part then?

Not saying he won't, just posted the final%...19g in 194 shots.
- OilHorse

So you agree that his 3% - 4%, 50 game stretch was an abbreviation and he will likely be closer to 8% - 10% next year

That's fine, it doesn't matter when he scores.... just that he scores at that right. The 2 points earned in Nov count just the same as the 2 points earned in March.
- Zombie

Sure it does, what good is having a guy that can't put points up in the last 50 games? That will equal more loses.

Isn't it safe to assume he'll drop from the 20% in the first part then?
- Lahey

Well of course.

I honestly don't know what you guys are trying to argue here. Everyone is fixated on his 19 points in his last 55 games, yet they also agree that his 3% - 4% shooting percentage in that time period likely wont continue.

So why not give him 2mil, 1mil if he scores 20-20, 1mil 30-30? Or some sort of variation. Paying him because we hope he doesn't continue the same patterns that he's been on the past few years isn't a good thing.
- Lahey

It is the Oiler way...did it with khabby and barker...any one I missed?

Sure it does, what good is having a guy that can't put points up in the last 50 games? That will equal more loses.
- Lahey

Well he can put up points, he put up 3rd line numbers during the last 50 games. Nothing wrong with .35PPG in the right role.

If he puts up an extra ordinary amount of points in the first 30 games, that should mean more wins then.

It doesn't matter when you get them, 2 points are 2 points.

So you agree that his 3% - 4%, 50 game stretch was an abbreviation and he will likely be closer to 8% - 10% next year
- Zombie

I can agree it is closer to his norm....which if he does continue to norm he may not reach 20g...and if coaching staff is learning they realize that playing him 19 m in/night is too much for him after the quarter mark of the season. So his shot total may drop meaning his 8-10% will result in lower g total.

Well he can put up points, he put up 3rd line numbers during the last 50 games. Nothing wrong with .35PPG in the right role.

If he puts up an extra ordinary amount of points in the first 30 games, that should mean more wins then.

It doesn't matter when you get them, 2 points are 2 points.
- Zombie

If...IF Barker returned to form of a couple of years ago we would have had a Norris candidate. IF Whitney's foot was better we would have had a fairly competent Dcore.

What IF Smyth is only as good as his last 60 games? 30 point in a year is ok for a 3liner...not a Top 6 guy.

If...IF Barker returned to form of a couple of years ago we would have had a Norris candidate. IF Whitney's foot was better we would have had a fairly competent Dcore.

What IF Smyth is only as good as his last 60 games? 30 point in a year is ok for a 3liner...not a Top 6 guy.
- OilHorse

Smyth is do for an injury too. Kinda shocked the old grey ball played two years of 82 games.

So why not give him 2mil, 1mil if he scores 20-20, 1mil 30-30? Or some sort of variation. Paying him because we hope he doesn't continue the same patterns that he's been on the past few years isn't a good thing.
- Lahey

Sure. But a potential 4 million dollar payday seems like a compromise on the Oilers end from the 2 million initially offered doesn't it? Compromise for both sides in fact.

I can agree it is closer to his norm....which if he does continue to norm he may not reach 20g...and if coaching staff is learning they realize that playing him 19 m in/night is too much for him after the quarter mark of the season. So his shot total may drop meaning his 8-10% will result in lower g total.
- OilHorse

So then why are you so fixated on his production when he was shoot 3% - 4%

If...IF Barker returned to form of a couple of years ago we would have had a Norris candidate. IF Whitney's foot was better we would have had a fairly competent Dcore.

What IF Smyth is only as good as his last 60 games? 30 point in a year is ok for a 3liner...not a Top 6 guy.
- OilHorse

My IF was related to his IF... ie we are assuming he will produce to start the year and then watch it fall off to end the year... like he has the last few years.


Again, I have no idea what you are trying to argue... I've never once said I think the guy should be top 6 next year.

Sure. But a potential 4 million dollar payday seems like a compromise on the Oilers end from the 2 million initially offered doesn't it? Compromise for both sides in fact.
- Morris

But if it's bonuses it's a win for Edmonton and not a compromise. If you setup bonuses and Smyth ends up making 5-6mil it's a good thing from both sides.

Again, I have no idea what you are trying to argue... I've never once said I think the guy should be top 6 next year.
- Zombie

I really don't know what the arguement is about either. I just don't want to pay him 3mil+ for 2 years.

I really don't know what the arguement is about either. I just don't want to pay him 3mil+ for 2 years.
- Lahey

I Don't know anyone that has said otherwise.

I really don't know what the arguement is about either. I just don't want to pay him 3mil+ for 2 years.
- Lahey

in Cap hit. I think that's the sticking point, and it's only reasonable that ironing out a salary-friendly contract with a low cap hit would take time. I don't think the drag out incontrovertibly proves that Smyth is a greedy bastard.

So then why are you so fixated on his production when he was shoot 3% - 4%
- Zombie

becasue it took up such a large % of his year. It is a regular thing with Smyth. Strong start and fizzles out early in the season to play very lack luster for 60+% of the year. If he were younger I would have less an issue but at his age a slow start will potentially doom his season.

But if it's bonuses it's a win for Edmonton and not a compromise. If you setup bonuses and Smyth ends up making 5-6mil it's a good thing from both sides.
- Lahey

I agree.

From the sounds of things, Tambs hasn't offered a contract like that, and Smyth hasn't rejected one. I can't really assume that Smyth is in the wrong here until he rejects a contract that could see him making 6 million dollars.

My IF was related to his IF... ie we are assuming he will produce to start the year and then watch it fall off to end the year... like he has the last few years.


Again, I have no idea what you are trying to argue... I've never once said I think the guy should be top 6 next year.
- Zombie

You took strong exception to my saying that due to his consistency issues over the past few years, and due to his age he is becoming closer to a 4th line than a Top 6.

You took strong exception to my saying that due to his consistency issues over the past few years, and due to his age he is becoming closer to a 4th line than a Top 6.
- OilHorse

over the past three years, consistency issues, fine.
But look at the past three seasons, first half vs 2nd half. Past three seasons:

27 in 34
26 in 33

29 in 41
18 in 41

32 in 41
14 in 41

Even if he had scored the ppg of his 2nd half totals (52, 35, 27) were talking about him as a guy firmly in the 3rd liner range.

EDIT: Oilhorse is right, I notated '42' instead of '41'

in Cap hit. I think that's the sticking point, and it's only reasonable that ironing out a salary-friendly contract with a low cap hit would take time. I don't think the drag out incontrovertibly proves that Smyth is a greedy bastard.
- Morris

I think the fact that all sources have said Smyth was offered 2yr, 2.25mil per and rejected it only to, reportedly, come back with an offer with same term but 1mil more per.

The team gave a fair contract...Smyth is hardballing.

that is my issue.

over the past three years, consistency issues, fine.
But look at the past three seasons, first half vs 2nd half. Past three seasons:

27 in 34
26 in 33

29 in 42
18 in 42

32 in 42
14 in 42

Even if he had scored the ppg of his 2nd half totals (52, 35, 27) were talking about him as a guy firmly in the 3rd liner range.
- Morris

Notice the downward trend...also check your number...there is only 82 games in a season and you have 84...

I think the fact that all sources have said Smyth was offered 2yr, 2.25mil per and rejected it only to, reportedly, come back with an offer with same term but 1mil more per.

The team gave a fair contract...Smyth is hardballing.

that is my issue.
- OilHorse

Given his potential to lead the team offensively like he did at points last season, he wants the chance to earn more money. There is no indication, simply by asserting that he feels he's worth 3.25 million, that he wouldn't accept a deal with a lower cap hit and favourable bonuses built in.

Contract negotiations are ridiculously complicated. That singular fact indicated nothing to me about Smyth's character.

Notice the downward trend...also check your number...there is only 82 games in a season and you have 84...
- OilHorse

Oh true.. I calculated correctly, I just put 42 instead of 41. Didn't deny the downward trend either. He's not a 4th liner.