Oh true.. I calculated correctly, I just put 42 instead of 41. Didn't deny the downward trend either. He's not a 4th liner.
- Morris

You are falling into the same trap as zombie...I didn't say he was a 4th liner. I said with his declining ability to stay at peak through a whole season he is closer to 4th line than Top 6.

Top 6: Smyth cannot sustain himself to stay there

3rd line: Where he is right not but...

4th line: he is gradually slipping into this area due to teh fact he cannot play a full year at a high enough level.

Given his potential to lead the team offensively like he did at points last season, he wants the chance to earn more money. There is no indication, simply by asserting that he feels he's worth 3.25 million, that he wouldn't accept a deal with a lower cap hit and favourable bonuses built in.

Contract negotiations are ridiculously complicated. That singular fact indicated nothing to me about Smyth's character.
- Morris

Why ask for 1 mil more than a fair #?

Why not ask for .5 mil...how about flat out 2.5...I am confidant that if he asked for 2.5/ for 2 years the team would have him signed already.

You took strong exception to my saying that due to his consistency issues over the past few years, and due to his age he is becoming closer to a 4th line than a Top 6.
- OilHorse

Because he's no where near 4th liner. Even in his unproductive phase he's a 3rd liner.

Given his potential to lead the team offensively like he did at points last season, he wants the chance to earn more money. There is no indication, simply by asserting that he feels he's worth 3.25 million, that he wouldn't accept a deal with a lower cap hit and favourable bonuses built in.

Contract negotiations are ridiculously complicated. That singular fact indicated nothing to me about Smyth's character.
- Morris

You are a wise man Morris

Why ask for 1 mil more than a fair #?

Why not ask for .5 mil...how about flat out 2.5...I am confidant that if he asked for 2.5/ for 2 years the team would have him signed already.
- OilHorse

He obviously doesn't think it's a fair number. Bertuzzi makes that, but Bertuzzi also had no real dominant stretches in the season.

He's obviously worried that he's gonna get paid 2.25 million dollars to score 55 points next year, which he feels he can do. I'm not going to call him greedy for that.

It's not clear that he'd rather 3.25 million guaranteed than say, 2.25 million with a potential for 4 million through earning bonuses. That's not clear because Tambellini hasn't offered him that kind of contract. If he rejected a contract like that, I would start to think of him as playing hardball.

I refuse to extrapolate an outlandish opinion about a player because of one offer and one counter-offer.

Why ask for 1 mil more than a fair #?

Why not ask for .5 mil...how about flat out 2.5...I am confidant that if he asked for 2.5/ for 2 years the team would have him signed already.
- OilHorse

Because it's his right to ask for whatever he wants.

He obviously doesn't think it's a fair number. Bertuzzi makes that, but Bertuzzi also had no real dominant stretches in the season.

He's obviously worried that he's gonna get paid 2.25 million dollars to score 55 points next year, which he feels he can do. I'm not going to call him greedy for that.

It's not clear that he'd rather 3.25 million guaranteed than say, 2.25 million with a potential for 4 million through earning bonuses. That's not clear because Tambellini hasn't offered him that kind of contract. If he rejected a contract like that, I would start to think of him as playing hardball.

I refuse to extrapolate an outlandish opinion about a player because of one offer and one counter-offer.
- Morris

You are a wise man Morris
- Zombie

No he's not, he just figured out Lander and MPS played in the SEL together.

You'll never shake that one

Because he's no where near 4th liner. Even in his unproductive phase he's a 3rd liner.
- Zombie

Barely a 3rd liner. 7 to 10 points less in a season and he is right in 4th line material.

And his skill set is declining...more every year.

You will probably be able to correlate his drop in numbers to when he was permanently a part of the 3rd line. Once he starts on the 3rd and stays there for a whole season watch his numbers drop to low 30s at best...and with his usual 60% drop in productivity he will become a mid 20p/s player...

You are falling into the same trap as zombie...I didn't say he was a 4th liner. I said with his declining ability to stay at peak through a whole season he is closer to 4th line than Top 6.

Top 6: Smyth cannot sustain himself to stay there

3rd line: Where he is right not but...

4th line: he is gradually slipping into this area due to teh fact he cannot play a full year at a high enough level.
- OilHorse

okay, so you said 'he is becoming closer to a 4th liner than he is to top 6'.

Statistically speaking, no he isn't. He's holding fast as a 3rd liner even after the 12 games where he scored 19 points, he scored 27 in 70 - good 3rd line numbers.

But more generally, almost every player 30+ years of age trends more towards a 4th liner than towards the top 6. Doesn't mean he is a useful 3rd liner for a couple more seasons.

He obviously doesn't think it's a fair number. Bertuzzi makes that, but Bertuzzi also had no real dominant stretches in the season.

He's obviously worried that he's gonna get paid 2.25 million dollars to score 55 points next year, which he feels he can do. I'm not going to call him greedy for that.

It's not clear that he'd rather 3.25 million guaranteed than say, 2.25 million with a potential for 4 million through earning bonuses. That's not clear because Tambellini hasn't offered him that kind of contract. If he rejected a contract like that, I would start to think of him as playing hardball.

I refuse to extrapolate an outlandish opinion about a player because of one offer and one counter-offer.
- Morris

I refuse to feel the opposite (and do not think it is "outlandish" to have this opinion) when the team has dropped him a nice fair offer which was ignored. 2 with bonuses, fine...I'll wait to see.

No he's not, he just figured out Lander and MPS played in the SEL together.

You'll never shake that one
- Lahey

Well, there's not much to figure out. Did that take some sleuthing when you learned it?

But yeah, I just read that. I admit it's miraculous I didn't learn earlier than this year.

Because it's his right to ask for whatever he wants.
- Zombie

you mean like it is my right to feel he is asking for too much?

I refuse to feel the opposite (and do not think it is "outlandish" to have this opinion) when the team has dropped him a nice fair offer which was ignored. 2 with bonuses, fine...I'll wait to see.
- OilHorse

That's a good ol fashioned internet "agree to disagree" then.


I hope re-signs for a number that doesn't sour everyone on him right off the bat.

Barely a 3rd liner. 7 to 10 points less in a season and he is right in 4th line material.

And his skill set is declining...more every year.

You will probably be able to correlate his drop in numbers to when he was permanently a part of the 3rd line. Once he starts on the 3rd and stays there for a whole season watch his numbers drop to low 30s at best...and with his usual 60% drop in productivity he will become a mid 20p/s player...
- OilHorse

I think you need to check what 3rd liners actually score.

okay, so you said 'he is becoming closer to a 4th liner than he is to top 6'.

Statistically speaking, no he isn't. He's holding fast as a 3rd liner even after the 12 games where he scored 19 points, he scored 27 in 70 - good 3rd line numbers.

But more generally, almost every player 30+ years of age trends more towards a 4th liner than towards the top 6. Doesn't mean he is a useful 3rd liner for a couple more seasons.
- Morris

Holding fast and declining...

those are avg #s...not good, avg...like Gags is generally holding to avg 2nd line #s...difference is that Gags is getting better while Smyth is not.

Smyth is one slow start from bottoming out.

No he's not, he just figured out Lander and MPS played in the SEL together.

You'll never shake that one
- Lahey

Everyone has a fault.

I think you need to check what 3rd liners actually score.
- Zombie

Do it up...show me a wide range of 3rd line players and their numbers...from my understanding the avg is:

1st: 60ish
2nd: 40ish
3rd: 30ish
4th: 20 or less

you mean like it is my right to feel he is asking for too much?
- OilHorse

Sure, you can think the world is flat too if you'd like.

Do it up...show me a wide range of 3rd line players and their numbers...from my understanding the avg is:

1st: 60ish
2nd: 40ish
3rd: 30ish
4th: 20 or less
- OilHorse

I did yesterday, his PPG last year during his worst stretch of the year would have put him 69th amoungst LW last year.

17-32 points for the 181-270th ranked players.

There's going to be a huge discrepancy in 3rd liner production up and down the league.

Boston and Vancouver are chalk full of 30 and 40 point 3rd liners because those guys are talented enough to be in some bottom feeder's top 6. LA only has five 30+ point forwards and NJ has 8, mostly because of their styles of play. Their bottom sixes seem perfectly fine to me.

Sure, you can think the world is flat too if you'd like.
- Zombie

No, only your head.

17-32 points for the 181-270th ranked players.
- Lahey

"Barely clinging on"

ZOMG Smyth is teh bestest playah evah!

5 year, 30 million dollah contract please!