I did yesterday, his PPG last year during his worst stretch of the year would have put him 69th amoungst LW last year.
- Zombie

You just don't get it...I am not..REPEAT I AM NOT saying that Smyth is NOT a 3rd line guy...he is...pure avg 3rd line guy...not good, not great, just avg...as attested by being 69th...every team has 2 guys on LW that are better, and 8 other guys on LW are better...So 8 teams have 3 better LW and 22 have 2 better.

Smyth needs to have fast starts to hide the fact that he is just an ordinary 3rd liner...and getting older and slower, thus dropping on the LW talent level to closer to 4th line...

You just don't get it...I am not..REPEAT I AM NOT saying that Smyth is NOT a 3rd line guy...he is...pure avg 3rd line guy...not good, not great, just avg...as attested by being 69th...every team has 2 guys on LW that are better, and 8 other guys on LW are better...So 8 teams have 3 better LW and 22 have 2 better.

Smyth needs to have fast starts to hide the fact that he is just an ordinary 3rd liner...and getting older and slower, thus dropping on the LW talent level to closer to 4th line...
- OilHorse

Do you think he'll be a 4th liner within the next two years?

Do you think he'll be a 4th liner within the next two years?
- Morris

Better, retired.

If still playing, then I do believe he will be 4th, his play will be deteriorated enough and players will have developed enough to push him down.

You just don't get it...I am not..REPEAT I AM NOT saying that Smyth is NOT a 3rd line guy...he is...pure avg 3rd line guy...not good, not great, just avg...as attested by being 69th...every team has 2 guys on LW that are better, and 8 other guys on LW are better...So 8 teams have 3 better LW and 22 have 2 better.

Smyth needs to have fast starts to hide the fact that he is just an ordinary 3rd liner...and getting older and slower, thus dropping on the LW talent level to closer to 4th line...
- OilHorse

No I get it quite well, you state he's "barely a 3rd liner" when clearly he isn't "barely a 3rd liner"

.... And to top it off you come to that conclusion by ignore the most productive part of his season and focus on the worst part of his season where he's STILL an above average 3rd liner.

You just don't get it...I am not..REPEAT I AM NOT saying that Smyth is NOT a 3rd line guy...he is...pure avg 3rd line guy...not good, not great, just avg...as attested by being 69th...every team has 2 guys on LW that are better, and 8 other guys on LW are better...So 8 teams have 3 better LW and 22 have 2 better.

Smyth needs to have fast starts to hide the fact that he is just an ordinary 3rd liner...and getting older and slower, thus dropping on the LW talent level to closer to 4th line...
- OilHorse

No I get it quite well, you state he's "barely a 3rd liner" when clearly he isn't "barely a 3rd liner"

.... And to top it off you come to that conclusion by ignore the most productive part of his season and focus on the worst part of his season where he's STILL an above average 3rd liner.
- Zombie

lolololol...you even read it or just blindly post in a blind rage?

I think I state 3 separate times (as shown by the underlined portions) that Smyth IS a 3rd liner. An avg 3rd liner. Not great, not good, just average. He has had a history of fast start, fast fade. And his fade portion is getting longer through the season. Oct+ Nov he was hot on his fast start. Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar+1/2 Apr he was in fade. Next year it may only be a month of games. That fast start hides his averageness.

Jones is already a superior 3rd liner...and a LW. Harti will take his place in the next 18 months. Sayonara Zombie. Since you cannot actually read the posts before you reply I feel there is nothing more to say to you.

lolololol...you even read it or just blindly post in a blind rage?

I think I state 3 separate times (as shown by the underlined portions) that Smyth IS a 3rd liner. An avg 3rd liner. Not great, not good, just average. He has had a history of fast start, fast fade. And his fade portion is getting longer through the season. Oct+ Nov he was hot on his fast start. Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar+1/2 Apr he was in fade. Next year it may only be a month of games. That fast start hides his averageness.

Jones is already a superior 3rd liner...and a LW. Harti will take his place in the next 18 months. Sayonara Zombie. Since you cannot actually read the posts before you reply I feel there is nothing more to say to you.
- OilHorse

You tell me to show you what a third liner scores like, so I do and you reply that I just don't get it?

Anyways, Here's what you said last page:

"Barely a 3rd liner"

Jones most certainly not a superior

And frankly, it's a stretch saying he's only an average 3rd liner, as you have to ignore a 35% of the season to come to that conclusion..

You watching Penner play tonight?



- robin_steele264

I don't know what has suddenly got Penner playing lights out, but two weeks does not outweigh two years any more than one nice day makes it summer.

You tell me to show you what a third liner scores like, so I do and you reply that I just don't get it?

Anyways, Here's what you said last page:

"Barely a 3rd liner"

Jones most certainly not a superior

And frankly, it's a stretch saying he's only an average 3rd liner, as you have to ignore a 35% of the season to come to that conclusion..
- Zombie

No you showed me a list of LWers...and said that using that majority of his season...after his fast start...that we will see he will be a very good 3rd liner. You then tell me I don't know what a 3rd liner should produce.

So what should a 3rd liner produce...you say I am wrong when I say 30 points is avg...yet never actually say how I am wrong.

Guess what, based on 65% of Smyth's season, and we can say that that is a reasonable time frame to see his true point scoring ability we see he will score about 30 points.

I call that 30 points as the average for a 3rd line player...standard, mid-range, medium, normal, common, usual...

NOT great, NOT good...average.

Guess what, Jones got 33 and he played minimal PP and Top 6 time, unlike Smyth.

So if Smyth is getting a barely median 29 points averaged out for a whole season based of the 65% of the season he performed at his standard pace, then he is performing below the 30 points that is average for 3rd line players. And he ain't getting better, with age he is getting slower.

So really, it is more of a stretch to say he is more than a tolerable 3rd liner by using the 35% of the season he produced above the average, than it is to say he is a pedestrian 3rd liner because of how he produced in the 65% of the season he generated his undistinguished 3rd line point total.

Now, Smyth is a 3rd line player. Not exceptional, just normal. With every passing day he slips further away from being what he USED to be...a Top 6 player. So slipping down means he moves closer to the next line down...the 4th line.

Better, retired.

If still playing, then I do believe he will be 4th, his play will be deteriorated enough and players will have developed enough to push him down.
- OilHorse

I really don't think that's likely. At no point last season was he close to being a 4th liner.

Next season, if he doesn't get a fast start, he'll still produce like a 3rd liner if the last two years are any indication. Unless we acquire a world beating roster in the next two years, I really don't think his play will deteriorate to 4th line levels.

I like boobs

I really don't think that's likely. At no point last season was he close to being a 4th liner.

Next season, if he doesn't get a fast start, he'll still produce like a 3rd liner if the last two years are any indication. Unless we acquire a world beating roster in the next two years, I really don't think his play will deteriorate to 4th line levels.
- Morris

Looks at what I said:
"Better, retired.

If still playing, then I do believe he will be 4th, his play will be deteriorated enough and players will have developed enough to push him down."

*hangs head and shakes it*

No. That is not what I said. I have never said he was a 4th line player last season. He was an average 3rd line player that had a fast start and "looked" like the Smyth of old (Top 6 LW).

What I DID say was that with his recent history, and how fast his play level drops, and his age, I DO believe that in 2 years (if not sooner) he will be passed on the depth chart.

He is 36 now, 37 next Feb. If his contract is 2 years then he will be 38 by the end of it. He is no Selanne. Not Howe, No Messier. Not an Yzerman. I do not think he gets close to playing @ 40.

So the question was: Do I see him on the 4th line in 2 years? I answered. No I see him as retired and like I said, I see him being surpassed as a 3rd liner with in the next 2 years.

Jones is a LW, and all thing equal is as productive as a LW while being more of checker, faster skating willing to fight and just as, if not more, responsible defensively.

Harti is a player that is rising through the ranks and will get a shot very soon.

MPS is a player with high potential on LW that can be part of the reason that Smyth is pushed down.

Having Jones.Horc.Eager is not out of the realm of possibility as the 3rd line. It is a much faster, more physical line with a little less offensive flair. This exclusion of Smyth will not necessarily push him up the chart, it will just as likely move him down.

But then as I think you said before: Agree to Disagree.

I like boobs
- Lahey

So post up a pic of some ya lecher.

Looks at what I said:
"Better, retired.

If still playing, then I do believe he will be 4th, his play will be deteriorated enough and players will have developed enough to push him down."

*hangs head and shakes it*

No. That is not what I said. I have never said he was a 4th line player last season. He was an average 3rd line player that had a fast start and "looked" like the Smyth of old (Top 6 LW).

What I DID say was that with his recent history, and how fast his play level drops, and his age, I DO believe that in 2 years (if not sooner) he will be passed on the depth chart.

He is 36 now, 37 next Feb. If his contract is 2 years then he will be 38 by the end of it. He is no Selanne. Not Howe, No Messier. Not an Yzerman. I do not think he gets close to playing @ 40.

So the question was: Do I see him on the 4th line in 2 years? I answered. No I see him as retired and like I said, I see him being surpassed as a 3rd liner with in the next 2 years.

Jones is a LW, and all thing equal is as productive as a LW while being more of checker, faster skating willing to fight and just as, if not more, responsible defensively.

Harti is a player that is rising through the ranks and will get a shot very soon.

MPS is a player with high potential on LW that can be part of the reason that Smyth is pushed down.

Having Jones.Horc.Eager is not out of the realm of possibility as the 3rd line. It is a much faster, more physical line with a little less offensive flair. This exclusion of Smyth will not necessarily push him up the chart, it will just as likely move him down.

But then as I think you said before: Agree to Disagree.
- OilHorse

What I don't understand is how you can look at the past two years and say that putting up top 6 numbers and then falling to 3rd line numbers indicates that two years from now he'll either be out of the game or only capable of putting up 4th line numbers.

By the way, I never said you claimed he was a 4th liner, I said 'at no point last season was he close to being a 4th liner'. As in, nothing about his play indicates that that's in the near future for him. You are seeing a trend I don't seem to be able to see. I agree his permanent top 6 days are probably done, but I really don't see anything in his game to indicate that he'll be a 4th liner anytime soon. He'll probably hold strong on the 3rd line for the rest of his career, even if he never has a hot streak again.

No you showed me a list of LWers...and said that using that majority of his season...after his fast start...that we will see he will be a very good 3rd liner. You then tell me I don't know what a 3rd liner should produce.

So what should a 3rd liner produce...you say I am wrong when I say 30 points is avg...yet never actually say how I am wrong.

Guess what, based on 65% of Smyth's season, and we can say that that is a reasonable time frame to see his true point scoring ability we see he will score about 30 points.

I call that 30 points as the average for a 3rd line player...standard, mid-range, medium, normal, common, usual...

NOT great, NOT good...average.

Guess what, Jones got 33 and he played minimal PP and Top 6 time, unlike Smyth.

So if Smyth is getting a barely median 29 points averaged out for a whole season based of the 65% of the season he performed at his standard pace, then he is performing below the 30 points that is average for 3rd line players. And he ain't getting better, with age he is getting slower.

So really, it is more of a stretch to say he is more than a tolerable 3rd liner by using the 35% of the season he produced above the average, than it is to say he is a pedestrian 3rd liner because of how he produced in the 65% of the season he generated his undistinguished 3rd line point total.

Now, Smyth is a 3rd line player. Not exceptional, just normal. With every passing day he slips further away from being what he USED to be...a Top 6 player. So slipping down means he moves closer to the next line down...the 4th line.
- OilHorse

In order:

You say:

You took strong exception to my saying that due to his consistency issues over the past few years, and due to his age he is becoming closer to a 4th line than a Top 6.

I say:

Because he's no where near 4th liner. Even in his unproductive phase he's a 3rd liner.

Which is of course correct, his 45 points are no where near 4th line production... even his 30 point pace to end the season is well above 4th liner.

You say:

Barely a 3rd liner. 7 to 10 points less in a season and he is right in 4th line material.

I say:

I think you need to check what 3rd liners actually score.

I say you need to check what 3rd liners actually produce because you are claiming he's barely a 3rd liner, when in fact, even in his down stretch his production is in the upper half of third line production.

you say:

Do it up...show me a wide range of 3rd line players and their numbers...from my understanding the avg is:

1st: 60ish
2nd: 40ish
3rd: 30ish
4th: 20 or less

Which is almost correct, though the 61st to 90th highest scoring LW's put up between 13-26 points, while the 61st to 90th highest scoring RW's put up 13 - 27 points

I say

I did yesterday, his PPG last year during his worst stretch of the year would have put him 69th amoungst LW last year.

To which for some strange reason you reply that I "Just don't get it".

____________________________________________________________

So basically here's what we know:

Over a full season he produced at a high end 2nd line clip

Over the strongest part of his season he produced like an elite winger

Over the weakest part of his season he produced like an above average 3rd line winger

You've conceeded that the 3%-4% that he shot during the weakest part of his season likely isn't sustainable, yet you fixate on that part of his season which you think is the best representation of his skill set.... in other words, you don't think he'll shoot that low over a full season, but you still think he'll produce that poorly over a full season

Last year he took a shot every 8.06 miutes

The year before he took a shot every 7.58 minutes

If they drop him to more typical 3rd line numbers next year, call it 15 minutes a night and assume his shootin rate drops again to a shot every 8.5 minutes, that leaves him with 1230 minutes of hockey and and 145 shots

So in other words, over the course of the next full season you think he'll be in the 8% - 10% shooting percentage range, play third line minutes which means he's likely to produce between 12 - 15 goals next year, which would be strong 3rd line numbers.

In order:

You say:

I say:

Which is of course correct, his 45 points are no where near 4th line production... even his 30 point pace to end the season is well above 4th liner.

You say:

I say:

I say you need to check what 3rd liners actually produce because you are claiming he's barely a 3rd liner, when in fact, even in his down stretch his production is in the upper half of third line production.

you say:

Which is almost correct, though the 61st to 90th highest scoring LW's put up between 13-26 points, while the 61st to 90th highest scoring RW's put up 13 - 27 points

I say

To which for some strange reason you reply that I "Just don't get it".

____________________________________________________________

So basically here's what we know:

Over a full season he produced at a high end 2nd line clip

Over the strongest part of his season he produced like an elite winger

Over the weakest part of his season he produced like an above average 3rd line winger

You've conceeded that the 3%-4% that he shot during the weakest part of his season likely isn't sustainable, yet you fixate on that part of his season which you think is the best representation of his skill set.... in other words, you don't think he'll shoot that low over a full season, but you still think he'll produce that poorly over a full season

Last year he took a shot every 8.06 miutes

The year before he took a shot every 7.58 minutes

If they drop him to more typical 3rd line numbers next year, call it 15 minutes a night and assume his shootin rate drops again to a shot every 8.5 minutes, that leaves him with 1230 minutes of hockey and and 145 shots

So in other words, over the course of the next full season you think he'll be in the 8% - 10% shooting percentage range, play third line minutes which means he's likely to produce between 12 - 15 goals next year, which would be strong 3rd line numbers.
- Zombie

So you can post a reply that is neither insulting nor condescending, excellent...I am off to physio and will post an appropriate reply then.