Justin Lowe: Predicting Blackhawks Goals - Defence
Today we look at the total number of goals from the Blackhawks defencemen.

In the last blog, I evaluated the Hawks forwards and determined they would score 212 goals total upfront. That would be an increase from the 195 they scored last year.

Come on Keith go for 3 goals this year!

Come on Keith go for 3 goals this year!
- Roadhockey

I have him at a respectable 5 goals but think he'll be back to 40 points.

Are the last two blogs about gearing the crowd up for some fantasy hockey?

I have him at a respectable 4 goals but think he'll be back to 40 points.
- Justin Lowe

You actually have him for FIVE Justin. Don't know where you see this EXPLOSION coming from.
4 sounds about right!

Based on what we saw from him offensively last season, I could easily see Gus leading the dmen in goals and wouldn't surprise me a bit. Hoping he's a bit less of an adventure in his own end though.

Also, hoping Joker spends at least half if not the entire year in RFD. Maybe he gets called up for a look but I'd like to see him continue developing under Colliton as well.

So excited for the season. Especially if Jokiharu plays. It would be a thrill to see a young prospect come in and be an exciting impact player.

You actually have him for FIVE Justin. Don't know where you see this EXPLOSION coming from.
4 sounds about right!

- hawk35

Sorry, yes 5. I gave him an extra one there last minute. Ha

Are the last two blogs about gearing the crowd up for some fantasy hockey?
- Beaver-Warrior

Maaayyybbbe.

Good timing, no?

I have him at a respectable 5 goals but think he'll be back to 40 points.
- Justin Lowe

How did you reach the goal total predictions?

How did you reach the goal total predictions?
- jmatchett383

My brain... mixed with league scoring and player trends.

Also, the position these guys are in heading into the year - ie. who's slated to play more PP time, etc.

Hey Justin,

Great piece, I really enjoyed it. No mention about Adam Boqvist though, has it already been determined that he won't play for Chicago at all this year or do you think he simply isn't ready enough to make a significant impact?

Edit: just read that he expressed his intent to play for London.

Based on what we saw from him offensively last season, I could easily see Gus leading the dmen in goals and wouldn't surprise me a bit. Hoping he's a bit less of an adventure in his own end though.

Also, hoping Joker spends at least half if not the entire year in RFD. Maybe he gets called up for a look but I'd like to see him continue developing under Colliton as well.
- HawkintheD

Same goes for DeBrincat, Schmaltz, Hayden, Sikura, Ejdsell, Kampf and Kahun. They could all use 2-3 more years in Rockford for a little extra seasoning.

Seriously though, with Forsling’s injury the Hawks will either need to sign a free agent defenseman or give one of the young guys a shot (likely Hillman or Jokiharju). Let’s be honest, Stan isn’t capable of making a decent hockey trade to address he team’s needs.

Hey Justin,

Great piece, I really enjoyed it. No mention about Adam Boqvist though, has it already been determined that he won't play for Chicago at all this year or do you think he simply isn't ready enough to make a significant impact?

Edit: just read that he expressed his intent to play for London.
- kryoung20

Yep - he's London bound.

He's 1-2 years away still.

Same goes for DeBrincat, Schmaltz, Hayden, Sikura, Ejdsell, Kampf and Kahun. They could all use 2-3 more years in Rockford for a little extra seasoning.

Seriously though, with Forsling’s injury the Hawks will either need to sign a free agent defenseman or give one of the young guys a shot (likely Hillman or Jokiharju). Let’s be honest, Stan isn’t capable of making a decent hockey trade to address he team’s needs.
- DarthKane

I think this is why I just heard Sbisa's name pop back up.

Like him or not, he's one of the better ones out there. He played well in Vegas last year and one of the only FA's left that has top 4 capability.

I'm looking at the overall team play more than which individuals get how many. Any situation where they were not in the top-10 in the league (or certainly not in the top half) means room for improvement.

On the PP last season, the Hawks were 25th in the league with 43 goals - 16.0% (28th). No matter how many goals you give to individual defensemen, they have to do a better job of running the show with a man advantage.

Had the been at the league median % (20.7%) they would have had 56 PP goals - an increase of 13 - getting them to 241 for the season. Getting to the top-10 in % (21.4%) would have meant another 2 goals.

Add a couple of ENGs (they had 10 last season - 17th - although I don't know how many more wins a couple more ENGs would be worth) and OT goals (which does win games) - and a couple more 5X5 (they were 17th in the league with 157).

They were 23rd in shorties last season with 4 - another couple there would be nice, altho you can't really count on shorties.

Lots of room for scoring improvement - which means players doing the jobs in whatever situation they're in, not just in scoring goals themselves.

Sorry, yes 5. I gave him an extra one there last minute. Ha
- Justin Lowe

An empty-netter in Game 82????

You actually have him for FIVE Justin. Don't know where you see this EXPLOSION coming from.
4 sounds about right!

- hawk35

Its simple, more of his shots off of shin pads will deflect toward the goal instead of away.

I think this is why I just heard Sbisa's name pop back up.

Like him or not, he's one of the better ones out there. He played well in Vegas last year and one of the only FA's left that has top 4 capability.
- Justin Lowe

Sadly I think you're right, hopefully he comes to camp just on a PTO. I'm not against Hillman or Jokiharju playing in Chicago if they are ready. I feel pretty positive about both guys and wouldn't be surprised if they were regulars by the end of the season (in a good way).

Sadly I think you're right, hopefully he comes to camp just on a PTO. I'm not against Hillman or Jokiharju playing in Chicago if they are ready. I feel pretty positive about both guys and wouldn't be surprised if they were regulars by the end of the season (in a good way).
- DarthKane

I think you'll see guys like Hillman and Joki even if a guy like Sbisa is signed.

Sometimes we forget about the amount of injuries that can happen and completely dissipate teams if there is little NHL depth available to step up.

If, let's say, Manning and Keith (please God no) both go down at some point... you're looking at:

Gustafsson-Seabrook
Murphy-Jokiharju
Hillman-Rutta

(or some combination like that)

... Woof.

This great for discussion sake and very good blog but these predictions of scoring really don't matter unless they can keep the puck out of their own net and play better defense than last year. The hawks have not improved the roster from last year its basically the same. So unless there is big trade or some other trade coming hawks will finish in the bottom 3rd of the league, imo.

I think you'll see guys like Hillman and Joki even if a guy like Sbisa is signed.

Sometimes we forget about the amount of injuries that can happen and completely dissipate teams if there is little NHL depth available to step up.

If, let's say, Manning and Keith (please God no) both go down at some point... you're looking at:

Gustafsson-Seabrook
Murphy-Jokiharju
Hillman-Rutta

(or some combination like that)

... Woof.
- Justin Lowe

I'm not totally ready to write off Gustafsson and Murphy as duds (not saying you are). These guys are two of many "what ifs" on the team this season. Both guys have the potential to be decent defensemen, at least better than they were last year. But I will concede that it's far from a guarantee. I certainly don't think Sbisa is better than the top 6, maybe he comes in as a #7 until Forsling is ready and/or Hillman or Jokiharju get some development time in Rockford. Not ideal, but I can see it happening.

I just recall Sbisa from his time in Vancouver....

I think this is why I just heard Sbisa's name pop back up.

Like him or not, he's one of the better ones out there. He played well in Vegas last year and one of the only FA's left that has top 4 capability.
- Justin Lowe

He looked like the weak link in Vegas last year. Opposing teams seemed to go after him first, and he didn't seem to handle it well. And if that's the case and I'm more right than wrong, then why spend the money on this guy who in my opinion won't be a difference maker?

(now watch him be top 4 on a cup winner next year)

This great for discussion sake and very good blog but these predictions of scoring really don't matter unless they can keep the puck out of their own net and play better defense than last year. The hawks have not improved the roster from last year its basically the same. So unless there is big trade or some other trade coming hawks will finish in the bottom 3rd of the league, imo.
- Scott1977

I think certain aspects of the roster will be better. DeBrincat and Schmaltz should be better with more experience. I think Sikura and Kahun will help the team, and Kruger is a defensive upgrade at forward. Small improvements for the most part, but improvement nonetheless. Not to mention that a bounceback season from Saad is completely realistic.

Goaltending is the big question and it all surrounds Crawfords health. If Corey plays I have no concerns. If Corey doesn't play the Hawks are in deep trouble (in the absence of any other goaltending moves).

Defense is about neutral as far as change. Manning and Oesterle are even swaps, Keith should improve but he can only do so much. Seabrook may improve but not but much. They key to any improvements on defense will be Gus or Murphy really stepping up (possible but not a given) or a young guy (Jokiharju) surprising everyone.

He looked like the weak link in Vegas last year. Opposing teams seemed to go after him first, and he didn't seem to handle it well. And if that's the case and I'm more right than wrong, then why spend the money on this guy who in my opinion won't be a difference maker?

(now watch him be top 4 on a cup winner next year)
- 6628

Ha! Stranger things right?

Agree about signing Sbisa. I think he’s more bottom pairing at this point and unless he’s brought in as depth, pass.

I’d rather see if Gusto and Rutta can take another step. They both have some offense to their game and if they can be better defensively it’s a win.

If not, Jan’s contract is up at the end of the year and Gus only has one left.

If it helps keep some of the other Utes stay in RFD for all or most of the year to develop, great. Too bad on the other Gus though. I thought Forsling had a legit shot to come in and play a whole season.