In the summer the Coyotes traded Alex Galchenyuk to the Penguins for Phil Kessel.
The summer before that, they traded Max Domi for Alex Galchenyuk.
Domi had a breakout year last year, but it was overrated because of high shooting percentage and PDO.
This year, he's not doing so hot.
Galchenyuk has been injured.
Kessel isn't exactly tearing up the league, and these trades aren't going to look so hot in the future because Kessel is 32 and eight years older than Domi.
But right now, I think any reasonable person would choose Kessel out of the three of them if they were building a team in 2019.
When are the Coyotes ever going to have goaltending like they have right now again? OEL doesn't have that many prime years left, so really, it's all about the now anyways for Arizona, and so the trades actually looks pretty decent.
But how is Kessel doing this year? A little disappointing so far, if we're going by his point totals.
Four goals and 14 points in 25 games is not what we were hoping for.
(Domi only has six goals and 16 points in 24 games).
Kessel has;
49% Corsi
48% of shots
47% of the scoring chances
and a negative expected goal differential.
That doesn't look great, until you break it down. The Coyotes generally get outshot, so relative to his teammates these numbers are good. They're better still when you separate them by line.
Kessel spent half his time being centred by Stepan, and they crushed it to the tune of 57%
The other half of the time, he has been centred by either Soderberg or Schmaltz and the results have been brutal.
Kessel does have the insanely low 96 PDO, however which suggests extreme bad luck.
Kessel is getting an on-ice shooting percentage of 4.62%
That means that whenever Kessel hits the ice, the Coyotes as a team score on under 5% of shots.
That's extremely low.
The fact that the only time the Coyotes don't post all-time great save percentages is when Kessel and Keller are on the ice has more to do with bad luck than their bad defensive reputations would suggest.
These two guys are getting woefully unlucky.
Kessel has a 33% goals for percentage, which you couldn't even do on purpose if you tried to suck at defense.
Kessel currently has a Points per 60 lower than Nick Hjallmarson and tied with Lawson Crouse.
It's ugly.
BUT
Of all NHL wingers who have played the same amount of minutes, Phil Kessel has the lowest on-ice shooting percentage, which, like I already said, is under 5%.
Crazier still, Kessel is personally shooting just 2.2%.
Of the 60 forwards who've played as much as he has, he's last by a mile.
Kessel usually shoots about 10% for his career which is over 1000 games long.
He clearly isn't as bad as he's seemed.
IN fact, based on his career advanced stats, he's playing roughly the same as always, maybe even a bit better, considering his linemates, usage and the limited amount of offense the Coyotes have in their lineup, or on his line.
In fact, you can definitely look at how the team plays in general, and Kessel is usually one of their best players, if not their best, every night.
Various moves to get Kessel going have backfired.
The Kesse-Keller-Stepan line absolutely crushed it early on. Despite literally never scoring, they were comparable to Boston's top line through the first 15 games of the year in all other stats.
Kessel is a 57% player when he's with Keller and Stepan, but putting him with Soderberg or Schmaltz has been disastrous (35% and 45% respectively).
One of the hardest things for a coach to do is leave a line together that isn't playing scoring, even if they are playing well.
In this case, the Coyotes first line just needs time, patience and a bit of luck.
The Coyotes are set to play the Ducks tonight, and predictably, Kessel is being centred by Schmaltz and not Stepan. As much as I like offensive hockey, the defensive liability of a Keller-Schmaltz-Kessel line is crazy.
The coach would be better off to reunite Kesel with Stepan and let time take its course.
Kessel might only have six 5v5 points, but if he keeps the process going, he's bound to get back on track. The guy definitely isn't a 2% shooter - he's a hall of famer whose game has barely, if at all, dropped off.
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