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Flyers make lineup changes to tank? A reminder of what’s really at steak? |
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Yes sir we got Trouble!
Right here in Queen City!
With a capital T and that rhymes with P and that stands for Philly.
Controversy and scandal?
Some very interesting news coming out of Buffalo today as the Flyers get to play their final game of the regular season…Fedotov, who was scheduled to start, was suddenly and without reason changed to Kolosov… and based on your comments, quite a few of you guys will be happy with that decision. The Flyers are also removing Dorwart…who has looked very good since joining the team from college… He will be replaced by Devin Kaplan who will wear #12….(Tim Kerr still deserves more recognition around the NHL.) The Flyers aren’t playing recently signed top prospect Alex Bump..
Twitter is a buzz!
Are the Flyers tanking this last game to improve their chances in the lottery?
Will someone please think of the children?
The answer to the first question is: No. The flyers aren’t doing all this to purposely tank.
How can I be so sure of this assertion?
The answer is: Basic Logic Baby
The Losing stakes are actually VERY low
These moves will definitely draw some criticism because the outcome of the game game tonight WILL have massive effects on where the flyers pick.
Three Scenarios.
#1 Sabres win in Regulation or OT
The Flyers would end up with the 4th best chance in the draft lottery to recieve the #1 pick overall. They will be even with points with Boston and Seattle, but will lose the tiebreaker which is regulation wins…. The flyers only have 27.
#3 Sabres Win in OT or the Flyers win in OT
The Flyers would end up with the 6th best chance in the draft lottery to recieve the #1 pick overall. The Sabres are a point ahead currently but hold the ROW tiebreaker.
#2 Flyers win in Regulation
The Flyers would end up with the 7th best chance in the draft lottery of the #1 pick overall.
But here’s the thing…
It’s so important to remember that fourth versus seventh just changes the percentage chance that you’ll get number one pick from 9.5% or 6.5%. That’s it!
In a simpler way say you have 100 ping-pong balls and you remove three of them and put a dot on them and then mix them up… picking one of those three at random is the only difference between a Flyers victory or a los tonight.
Out of all draft lottery, the NHL is the one that’s consistently trying to avoid the temptation for a team to tank…
The team with the worst record in the NHL only has a 25.5% chance of landing to #1 pick.
So think about that. You could watch a team that was absolutely terrible all year…a team that is gaining no confidence in itself by losing over and over again…. And even then you have a 74.5% chance of NOT getting the #1 pick.
That’s why it’s just not worth it to cultivate losing atmosphere based on awful odds….
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