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As we commence the month of August,
Danny DeKeyser remains unsigned with approximately six weeks remaining until training camp begins in Traverse City. Although DeKeyser has publicly stated a deal will get done before training camp and he has no worries on whether he will be a Red Wing next season.
The question is not whether DeKeyser will wear the Winged Wheel next season. It is whether he agrees to a short-term "bridge" deal of 1-2 years OR if he and the Red Wings agree to terms on a long-term contract to make the 24 year-old DeKeyser a Red Wing for years to come.
In all likelihood, a bridge deal might make life easier for all parties involved. Given the fact DeKeyser has only played 76 regular season NHL games, the Wings might have a greater level of comfort handing out a lengthy term to DeKeyser if he continues his level of production for another season or two. Furthermore, the recent bridge contracts given to the likes of
Jared Spurgeon (Minnesota),
Nick Leddy(Chicago),
T.J. Brodie (Calgary) and
Dmitri Orlov (Washington), should aid both sides in agreeing to a cap hit in the 2.5 million to 3 million range on a short-term deal (1-2 years)
In addition, the most significant factor as to why a deal hasn't been agreed to as of yet is the unknown status of
Daniel Alfredsson. The Red Wings have approximately $5.2 million in cap space and need to sign at least DeKeyser. Depending on whether Alfredsson is healthy enough to return, the club will bring him back and have to move out a contract to make the cap work. Having DeKeyser agree to a short-term deal would incur a smaller cap hit then signing him to a longer term deal and buying his initial UFA years.
It would not surprise if the Red Wings and DeKeyser already have deals in principle for either scenario. Once the club gets word on Alfredsson, we will likely hear about a DeKeyser signing which will likely be telling on what Alfredsson will do.
So what's the number for a long-term contract?
This week the Red Wings saw their division rival Toronto Maple Leafs sign a young rearguard in 24 year-old
Jake Gardiner to a 5 year, $20.25 million contract ($4.05 AAV). At first glance, that appears to be a reasonable comparable for the Red Wings to consider if they are discussing a potential long-term figure with DeKeyser's camp. Upon further investigation, here is a look at the 10 recent long-term defenseman signings for rearguards with comparable figures (age at time of long-term contract, time on ice, points per game) as DeKeyser.
Here is a look at DeKeyser's career stats (including time on ice/game this past season) compared to the career stats of the 10 rearguards at the time they signed their long-term contract with their existing team
Based on such comparables, it appears a long-term contract in the $4 million range would slide DeKeyser amongst these defensemen. Although he has played fewer games than any of these players at the time they signed their long-term contract, there is no denying the high regard the Red Wings brass have for DeKeyser and the likelihood the club has ample faith in #65's ability to play to the level of a potential long-term deal.
It would be a calculated risk on the part of
Ken Holland and company that could prove to pay dividends with a rising salary cap in the same manner it paid off for the club when they locked up
Niklas Kronwall back in 2007 to a five-year, $15 million contract after Kronwall had only completed one full season and had 115 NHL regular season games to his credit.
Time to roll the dice!
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