Edmonton has placed Mark Fayne on Waivers this morning for Assignment to the AHL.

This is a major development for the team, and surely an unexpected one. Fayne had been playing on the 2nd pairing very regularly and had not been dropped down to the 3rd. Instead he’s been made a Healthy Scratch only to come back onto the 2nd pairing. Now the Oilers have decided he’s more helpful off the roster completely.

Mark Fayne was a MacTavish signing, though it felt at the time that the move was at least in part informed by some fancy stats. Fayne had performed admirably well in New Jersey, albeit paired with their best defender. He signed a 4 year deal at 3.625M per season. As this is only his 2nd year with the Oilers, he still has 2 more after this season ends.

It seems obvious today that Fayne’s success was due to riding shotgun to players like Andy Greene. When paired with less experienced players he looks like a man playing down to his partner, rather than elevating him. If that makes sense.

As for Fayne’s style, I would classify him as a positional stay at home defender. He actually has a pretty decent shot, but he tends not to use it, perhaps because if it’s blocked he doesn’t have the plus foot-speed required to get back on defense. He isn’t a small man either, though he isn’t a punishing checker. He doesn’t have to be Scott Stevens to be effective, but if his positioning is off his natural tendency isn’t to fall back on being a physical presence.

As such, when he’s on you rarely notice him but when he’s off he very quickly runs out of things he can offer.

With Fayne out, there are going to be a lot of Fancy Stats people (including me) pointing out some basic facts about the Oilers defense and Mark Fayne. These are not really disputable as it’s just some raw data. Mark Fayne has the 2nd highest raw Corsi For percentage on the Oilers Defense. At 49.3% CF, the Oilers are almost break-even in shot attempts for and against with Fayne on the ice.

That is undisputable. It’s just a fact.

The good news for the Oilers defense is that Fayne’s regular partners have been Sekera and Klefbom, and both of those players have very negligible fall-off in shot attempt percentage when they play without Fayne. In other words, there’s every reason to believe the Oilers wont fall off a cliff without Fayne on the back-end.

I don’t know what the odds of anyone taking Fayne on waivers really is, but I would peg it as very low. No doubt the Oilers have tried to trade the player for some time without luck and are now hoping someone will just take him for free. The extra 2 years on his deal are going to be very prohibitive here.

Assuming Fayne clears waivers, the Oilers will now be paying 10.425 million in salary for Fayne, Nikitin, and Scrivens to play in the AHL. From that Salary, 7.575 million will be counting against Edmonton’s Cap as dead money. This doesn’t include another 3.25 million the Oilers are paying Ference to sit in the pressbox.

Sigh.

LINEUP

The Oilers placed Mark Fayne on Waivers today in a stunning move. Ference took the morning skate, for…reasons. He’s not expected to play.

Hall Draisaitl Purcell
Khaira RNH Eberle
Hendricks Letestu Korpikoski
Gazdic Lander Pakarinen

Nurse Sekera
Klefbom Schultz
Davidson Gryba

Nilsson

OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME

1) Meaningful Games. Despite the fact that Oilers are in a 4 way tie for last place in the NHL, they are still only 4 points out from 2nd in the Pacific (how????) and a Playoff berth. As the Morning crew at TSN 1260 pointed out, this could be Win 12 of the season and that didn’t occur until Late January of last season. This game could have Playoff implications for both teams. This is something we haven’t been able to say about the Oilers since Krueger was the Head Coach. Every single Oiler who has served more than 3 years here has to know how important these divisional games are right now.

2) Tailspin Sharks. San Jose has now lost 4 games in a row and last night had their goalie chased by the Flames. This is the 2nd half of a back-to-back for the Sharks and Edmonton is well rested. Normally when the Sharks come into Rexall it’s them who can sense blood in the water. This time it’s them who are limping into town and the Oilers have to be the one with the killer instinct. They have more than enough talent to win the game, but if the Oilers can get the jump early and get in their heads they could fall deeper into this tailspin.

3) Leon At Even Strength. Edmonton continues to get stellar performances from Leon Draisaitl. Where it is most significant is 5v5. Even strength scoring is so difficult, but Leon Draisaitl remains tied with Patrick Kane for 5v5 points per 60 minutes played. They both have 3.08 P/60 when each team has 5 skaters on the ice. The pace has slowed for him, but the team is playing better as a whole and with Nilsson in net hasn’t needed to score 4 goals to win games. Draisaitl continues to mature into the kind of center other teams need to plan around.

Puck drops tonight at 7:30 PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet Oilers. Get Better, Connor!

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