Today is a big day for the NHL. It is like the second trade deadline, the amateur draft, and the precursor to free agency all in one.
Teams are wheeling and dealing to get players re-signed, move up in the draft, or better posture themselves for the offseason. After today, teams embark on the often lowlights of summer, where bidding wars ensue on different players.
There will be one major chip going into the bowl courtesy of the Kings, and that's Milan Lucic.
While we could talk about the draft, the Kings have just four picks, and no first round pick. So that would be one light preview. Let us instead branch out on the most recent big news out of the Kings: Milan Lucic.
It hurts to lose a player who was in your top five in scoring. It hurts to lose a player that would probably be close to that again next season.
However, given what information we have it is really okay that the Kings did not bend to the demands of the Vancouver, BC native.
While it stings to have given up assets in the form of Colin Miller, a mid-1st round pick, and Martin Jones, it was a move that the Kings felt they needed to make in order to take another run at a cup. Heck, through about 50-60 games, everyone was rather convinced right? But the Kings ultimately fell short of their goal, hitting a skid at the end of the year and running into a very good San Jose team in the playoffs. While you could easily say that Dean Lombardi let the team down by offering up so much for a rental, you could also say the team let him down by not coming through even though moves were made to put them in a good position. The Kings probably wouldn't have been as good of a team last season without the contributions of Milan Lucic. So there is a give and take certainly. Did the Kings give up a lot for a little? Yes. But at the time we had no idea what would become of it, and if they make a run to the Conference Finals or beyond, I'd say people would be more satisfied with the ultimate conclusion of the Milan Lucic tenure.
That aside, here we stand today, with a Kings team now sans Milan Lucic.
But you know what? (Thanks Stothers, I can see you rubbed off on me) That is okay. We touched on it a little in the news break story, but in more detail here is why:
Lucic's Contributions are Replaceable
There is a great scene in Moneyball, where Billy Bean asks his scouting team "What's the problem?" in terms of needing to replace Giambi. While they are adamant that they need to replace X amount of home runs and X amount of RBIs, the real problem lies in the fact that they don't even have enough money to do so.
While the Kings are not in as dire a financial situation as the 2001 Oakland A's, they do have to look at replacing a 50-60 point, all-situations player, who fit the mold of Kings hockey very well, with limited money.
One way to do this is internally.
One candidate for an uptick in usage is Tanner Pearson.
While his name is almost too frequently tossed around in trade scenarios, he stands as the most ready and capable player to step in for big minutes and big production.
If you are thinking it is a big step down from Lucic to Pearson, you are not incorrect, for now. There is a gap between where Lucic is in terms of production and contribution form where Pearson is currently. Surprisingly though, it's not all that much.
Here are the 5v5 numbers of Pearson and Lucic last year side by side
Pearson - Lucic
G60: 0.71 - 0.81
P60: 1.68 - 2.04
Shots60: 7.12 - 5.09
iFenwick: 10.74 - 8.39
Sh%: 10.0 - 16.0
FA60: 32.73 - 35.82
Pearson is good in some very key areas, and is actually more of a safe forward than Lucic defensively. He also drives play forward quite a bit. So why does Lucic have the upper hand? Simple, linemates and shooting percentage. The 6% difference in Lucic and Pearson's percentages led to a lot more goals for Milan, however his per 60 wasn't THAT much more significant. He also had the benefit of playing 621 of his 1100ish minutes alongside Anze Kopitar, and another 533 alongside Jeff Carter.
Pearson, by comparison, played just a third of his total minutes with Anze Kopitar as his center. Followed by about half with a combination of Nick Shore and Trevor Lewis.
Also,when Pearson did play with Kopitar, it was really really good for the Kings. In fact, sometimes BETTER than that of the Kopitar-Lucic duo.
Here is a side by side (Okay on top of, below) comparison of the line combos with Lucic and Pearson last season.
View post on imgur.com
Notice if you will the combo of Lucic-Kopitar-Gaborik. Now compared that to Pearson-Kopitar-Gaborik.
Now do the same for Lucic-Kopitar-Brown and then Pearson-Kopitar-Brown.
Not only were those line combos better offensively, they were better defensively also. While Lucic plays a much more "Heavy" game which the Kings seem to like pairing with a play maker, Pearson's pure speed is also a benefit in the same way as Lucic's size. He can get in quick on the forecheck, get defenders pulled apart, and he can also mix it up in front of the net also.
The average shot distance difference between Pearson and Lucic was just 27.73 to 28.18. Not much at all. AND Pearson logged just as many individual rebound scoring chances on the year as Lucic, while generating more rush chances. His penalty differential was also far superior to that of Lucic, who was a -7, with Pearson a +9.
Then the kicker, Pearson is just 23 years old, and will be 24 in August.
There is massive room for improvement for him considering his age and the contributions and steps he has already made.
Outside of Pearson, the absence of Lucic will likely put an increased amount of minutes on Dwight King, Jordan Nolan, or young players like Michael Mersch or maybe even Justin Auger. Between these players, they should be able to successfully fill in the gaps vacated by Lucic, and do so at a much cheaper cost.
Which leads us to the next point...
It is Safer in the Long Term
Short term it could give the Kings issues. However, the years being tossed around when it comes to Lucic are anywhere between 6-8 years. That is a term that the Kings are not willing to eat, and shouldn't be willing to eat.
Has anyone looked at General Fanager recently? The Kings have a lot of long term contracts. Kopitar, Gaborik, Carter, Brown, Quick, Martinez, etc. They have numerous guys who will be getting paid a high dollar amount well into their thirties and late thirties in some cases.
Milan Lucic was asking the Kings to do that with yet ANOTHER contract. With a dollar amount probably hovering around $6 million, that is far too much to have locked up in aging players.
Think about this, IF the Kings had signed Lucic to say 6mil for 8 years, in just one year (the 2017-18 offseason) the team would have about $61 million dollars tied up in 13 players. That's around 10 million in cap space, and guess what? Toffoli, Pearson, Shore, and Gravel would all need contracts. Then in 2019-20 they'd have the extension of Drew Doughty coming, who will likely command around a $3 million dollar a year raise (From around $7MM to $10MM)
With Lucic in the fold, the Kings would need to fill out a 23-man roster, with about $10 million dollars for 10 players. About a million dollars a player if you want to average it out. Now Toffoli and Pearson won't be making a simple $1MM...so think about the average for 7-8 players after that. Not good right? While they may have received some relief in the form of the expansion draft, that is a risky play given that teams may not be interested in taking Brown or Gaborik. PLUS with Lucic,
they would have been forced to expose Nick Shore potentially.
If you thought the Kings budget was nervy the last couple of seasons, well, the team was likely on the brink of something truly ridiculous had Lucic been signed long term. The on ice short term knock is very much okay considering the Kings can now keep Shore, Gravel, Dowd, Pearson, and Toffoli, likely for much longer than they would have been able to had their been one more massive contract on the table.
With Lucic out, they are safer in the longer term. In short term they also might have the financial stability to, dare I say, even sign a player or two.
There is also the issue of age....
Lucic is not in his prime
Eric Tulsky wrote a great piece for SBNation about two years ago that laid out the cold hard fact that most NHL forwards are on the decline after about age 25. Now, that's not to say it is a rapid drop off, some players stay positive in their contributions for some time. Justin Williams for example, Matt Cullen, Joe Thornton. But these are somewhat rare examples.
25-29 can still be a slower decline, but as Tulsky states in the article (Linked above if you missed)
On average, players retain about 90% of their scoring through age 29, but the drop from there is pretty sharp -- they hit 80% at age 31, 70% at age 32-33, and 60% at age 35.
Milan Lucic turned 28 in early June. Whatever team signs him will likely get one to two more really good years out of him until the wheels slowly start to lose tread. A player of Lucic's ilk, a power forward, could be hit even harder than the average player with the way the speed and game is starting to be played in today's NHL.
You want a similar comparable? Look no further than LA's own Dustin Brown. A power forward who has lost a step, lost a slight edge to his play, and has now worn into a bottom 6 forward getting paid like a top 6 forward and handcuffing his team.
It is not insane to believe Lucic follows a similar path to that of his former teammate, and is no more than a bottom six contributor by the year 2019-20.
Asking the Kings top give him eight years, heck even six, at six million dollars a season, is a recipe for trouble. More than half of that contract would exist in heavy decline years, where value is often lost if teams are not smart with their money.
Breathe a sigh of relief
Dean Lombardi did the right thing. They played a bit of poker with Lucic, and decided to fold accordingly. While there had to have been a moment where Lombardi nearly pushed all in, in the end it was best to not double down on what already was a decision not working out in favor of the Kings. They gave up the assets to be more competitive, and that fell through. Nevertheless, it took a big moment of pride swallowing from the Kings GM to walk away, and the team will likely be much better off for it.
Opportunity will be given to perhaps other players, and the Kings will have much better maneuverability in the long term. It was a total now versus later scenario, where the Kings wisely opted to preserve their future versus becoming the current incantation of the Chicago Blackhawks. While the Blackhawks have three cups to show for it, they are shackled to so many high dollar, long term contracts, they have at this point traded away a team that is almost as good, if not better, than the one they currently have and will move forward with.
There are GMs and teams out there that will offer Lucic a tremendous sum. While he will be a good addition to any team, the position the Kings were in made this relationship a no-go. While it seems bad now given the investment, they have avoided what could have been a major pitfall and detriment to the team in the long term.
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