The West used to be the best when it was Chicago and Los Angeles dominating the Conference Finals. Since then things have opened up a bit. The Western Conference playoffs are wide open and there are many plausible outcomes. This of course should make following things a lot of fun.
Here are some thoughts about each of the opening round series.
Nashville vs Chicago
This is a heavyweight fight in round one. Both teams can make a deep run in these playoffs. Only one will be afforded that opportunity. Chicago showed some signs earlier in the year that their empire was crumbling, but Joel Quenneville changed some of his player usage as the season went on and it paid dividends for a little while. Chicago rebounded and their underlying numbers started to improve. However, since the trade deadline those numbers started to drop again
Nashville has one of the best grouping of defensemen in the league so they are as well equipped as any team to handle some of Chicago's higher end talent.
One area where the Blackhawks have a legit advantage is in goal. Corey Crawford has had another great season. He has an even-strength save percentage of 93.1 and a high danger save percentage of 83.9. Pekka Rinne had a decent season as well. He had an EVSV% of 92.9 which compares favorably to Crawford, but the real separation is his high danger save percentage which was only 78.3. That's a big gap when compared to Crawford.
Since the trade deadline both teams have a similar expected goals for percentage. Ultimately you are going to hear a lot about the Blackhawks being the favorite when in actuality this series is a pick em.
I flipped a coin and it landed on the side I allocated for Nashville so that's what I'm going with. This should be a good series.
Minnesota vs St. Louis
Minnesota did one of the best things they could have done by hiring Bruce Boudreau. The former Capitals and Ducks coach has a great track record of making the teams he coaches more dangerous and the Wild are not an exception.
There were some really nice jumps in offensive production this year for Minnesota.
St. Louis is playing some of their best hockey of the season, but it still falls short of the level that Minnesota is playing at
Minnesota is in a win now window and that's what I think they are going to do. They should win this series.
Calgary vs Anaheim
The Calgary Flames have a lot of the right core pieces in place moving forward and this year they were able to make the playoffs once again. The Giordano-Hamilton pairing might be the best in hockey and the line of Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik has been discussed as one of the best lines in the league. So if Calgary has one of the best defense pairing and forward trios they should be the favorite, right?
Not quite. For whatever reason Calgary and Anaheim are going in separate directions heading into the playoffs. Let's take a look at each team's expected goals for rolling averages as we enter round one.
That isn't great for Calgary.
My colleague Todd Cordell also did some research on Ryan Kesler's ability to shut down two of Calgary's young forwards.
The Flames are going to need to make some headway there because Ryan Getzlaf is always going to be a handful and Andrew Cogliano currently leads Anaheim on the possession front. If Calgary has one weakness it is depth.
I can't ignore the xGF% trends and I will be taking Anaheim. If Calgary can shore up their depth in the offseason they will be a handful next year.
Edmonton vs San Jose
The defending Western Conference champions will be taking on Connor McDavid in his first ever playoff run. The second year megastar is so incredibly good that the team was able to overcome the loss of elite winger Taylor Hall and break their playoff drought. McDavid was able to stay healthy this season and hit the 100 point barrier for the first and hopefully not last time in his career. McDavid has a legit argument that he is now the NHL's best player. To quote former Sportscenter anchor Dan Patrick: "You can't stop him you can only hope to contain him."
That isn't the only thing the Oilers have going for them. They look to have the advantage in net as well. Cam Talbot finished the year with an even-strength save percentage of 92.9% while Martin Jones came in below league average at 91.6%.
Looking at some of the Sharks offensive numbers from this year there are some things that jump out to me.
Joe Thornton was a shell of his former self this year. He went from being a top ten player in this regard to being the 237th ranked player this year. To make matters worse Jumbo Joe is heading into the playoffs day to day with an injury.
Joe Pavelski is still really good but he wasn't at the same level this year.
Logan Couture had a very nice bounce back year, but he is also entering the playoffs with an injury.
This Sharks team isn't entering the playoffs this year as strong as they were last year, but that doesn't mean they are hopeless. They are on par with how the Edmonton Oilers are entering the postseason as far as their rolling average for xGF%
Statistical models have the San Jose Sharks as a favorite in this series
I'm going to go against the model on this one and pick Edmonton to win the series. My rationale is that their goaltending has been steadier, they have the best player in the series, and their best players aren't dinged up before the series even starts.
That's how I see it anyways.
Thanks for reading!
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