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Which defensemen should the Habs protect at the NHL expansion draft? |
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With five weeks to go until the Las Vegas NHL expansion draft, the reality is that every club is going through the same daily exercise of which player to protect, who to expose and who to trade so as not to lose somebody of value for nothing. For Montreal Canadiens general manager Marc Bergevin, perhaps the biggest debate is which to protect on defense? Earlier in the season this would have been a slam dunk easy basket. Shea Weber and Jeff Petry are locks to be protected. Petry has a non movement clause that forces the Canadiens and the team is not about to let Weber, their number one defenseman get away either. That leaves just one spot open between the likes of:
Nathan Beaulieu
Jordie Benn
Brandon Davidson
Alexei Emelin
Andrei Markov
Nikita Nesterov
Zach Redmond
The Canadiens will not need to protect Andrei Markov as he will become an unrestricted free agent as of July 1st and the Las Vegas Golden Knights will not select a player that they are uncertain of signing. He will certainly be resigned once the expansion draft has passed and before free agency opens on Canada Day.
When the 2016-2017 season it was presumed that the Canadiens would protect Nathan Beaulieu. He was primed for a career year and in ways he did in fact have one. 74 games played, average of 19:29 minutes a game, four goals, 24 assists, +8, two powerplay goals and 12 powerplay points were his best numbers ever in the NHL. However, his inconsistent play particularly in the back half of the season saw his stock steadily fall, especially with the arrival of Jordie Benn and Brandon Davidson at the trade deadline. At 24 years old, Beaulieu should be entering the prime of his career. When he is on top of his game Beaulieu is a top four defenseman, capable of leading the attack on offense while making crisp outlet passes and using his skating to his advantage. When he is off Beaulieu is making poor decisions on defense and miscommunicates with his partner. However, with him being on the ice for 78 of the Canadiens 223 goals despite mostly playing on the third pairing, Beaulieu has proven that the team is better off with him in their lineup than not. He is set to be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights as of July 1st. The Golden Knights head coach is Gerald Gallant who coached Beaulieu in the QMJHL with the Saint John Sea Dogs. If Beaulieu is made available at the draft than it is very likely that Las Vegas takes him considering Gallant’s previous relationship with Beaulieu and his ability to get the best out of him.
Jordie Benn was acquired from the Dallas Stars just before the trade deadline in exchange for defenseman Greg Pateryn and a 2017 fourth round draft pick. Benn found instant success in Montreal and was a solid partner for Beaulieu as he was a steady influence and strong communicator. Along with new head coach Claude Julien’s adjustment, he led a drastically improved penalty kill and was a mainstay on the first unit alongside Weber. This allowed the veteran Markov to rest and not be used as much when the team was shorthanded. Benn is signed for a reasonable annual average of $1.1 million over the next two seasons and would be an attractive option for Las Vegas should he be exposed. A solid veteran defenseman signed to a very good contract. He will turn 30 years old this Summer.
Brandon Davidson was acquired from the Edmonton Oilers in the David Desharnais trade and saw his stock steadily rise even though he was in and out of the lineup. He had a breakthrough season in 2015-2016 but took a step back this past year as he had difficulty recovering from injury and regaining his spot in the lineup. Davidson is a smooth skater and has the ability to play physical when needed. He played his best hockey when paired with Jeff Petry. However, Davidson is still lower on the depth chart compared to Beaulieu, Benn and Emelin and will be exposed at the expansion draft. While the Edmonton Oilers were afraid of losing him for nothing, it would be surprising if the Golden Knights choose him over more established players or those with greater potential.
Alexei Emelin played a good part of the season with Shea Weber on the Canadiens top pairing and for awhile he exceeded expectations and played some of his best hockey in his career. However, when the going got tough in January and February Emelin’s game quickly tumbled and he found himself a healthy scratch on more than one occasion. Or perhaps not nearly enough. He is the Canadiens most physical defenseman and that is something that the Canadiens certainly need in their lineup. However, his inconsistencies and poor decisions were at times mind boggling to say the least. With a salary of $4.1 million and just one year left on his contract he could be attractive to Las Vegas as he would help them hit the cap floor and it would be a low risk gamble for just one season. The Canadiens would then benefit with his contract coming off the books and not needing to retain any of his salary.
Nikita Nesterov and Zach Redmond will certainly be made available but it would be shocking if either was selected. Neither could successfully crack the Canadiens lineup on a regular basis and Redmond spent the majority of his season with the St. John’s Ice Caps. Nesterov will be a restricted free agent this Summer while Redmond is signed for one more season at $612,500.
The recent signing of Czech defenseman Jakub Jerabek throws an interesting wrinkle into the Bergevin’s plans. He is similarly an offensive defenseman and shoots left, much like Beaulieu. He is exempt from the expansion draft as well. His signing gives Bergevin a little more motivation to attempt to trade Beaulieu while he still has value and protect Benn who added much depth and stability to defense core. Either way with Beaulieu, Bergevin is in a catch-22. If he leaves him exposed and he is taken by Las Vegas, Bergevin will surely be roasted for losing him for nothing, somewhat like how he lost Mark Barberio to waivers and unable to fetch anything in return for him. If he keeps Beaulieu and makes Benn available only to lose him, fans will be upset that they lost their top penalty killer. The best case scenario is via trade but not for another depth player. The Canadiens need top six help and it will cost more than just Beaulieu or Benn to receive that.
Perhaps though, we are simply overvaluing the Canadiens defensemen and Las Vegas will be more interested in selecting a forward or backup goaltender Al Montoya…
My personal pick: Protect Beaulieu over Benn. Beaulieu has improved and taken steps each season in the NHL. If Claude Julien is able to bring in a new assistant coach for defensemen, Beaulieu would surely benefit from a fresh voice. Benn has been great for the Canadiens in his short time with the club but Bergevin has proven to be quite adept at acquiring depth defensemen. As well, Jerabek is still unproven in the NHL... Unless Bergevin is able to trade Beaulieu in return for immediate top six help, he should be protected at the expansion draft.
Cheers and follow along!
Montreal Canadiens Blogger • 
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