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Pundits are starting to believe in the Golden Knights.

This morning, "Why the Vegas Golden Knights are for real" headlined ESPN's hockey coverage. Yesterday, TSN's Travis Yost was musing about the Knights' league-leading Expected Goals For % in all situations.

I'm not a believer quite yet. A deep dive into a lot of underlying statistics suggest that Vegas is pretty much the okay team that I believed them to be from day one. Watching them every night, I come to the same conclusion: Not great, not bad, riding some puck luck.

That said, an 8-1 start plus a .500 record the rest of the way equals 89 points. That'll put them right there. Since the implementation of the shootout in 2005-06, the average playoff cutoff for a full season is 93.3 points. But teams with as few as 87 (2015-16 Minnesota Wild) have eked in.

Anyway, that we're even having a serious conversation about the Knights' playoff prospects after Thanksgiving is a credit to Gerard Gallant and his 15-6-1 squad.

At just past the quarter mark of the season, let's look at some of the striking stats behind the Pacific Division-leading Golden Knights. I'll start with team figures, then forwards, defensemen, and finally, goalies.

(It's important to note that our sample size of 22 games is way, way too tiny to draw any definitive conclusions. It's a long season, and this is all educated speculation. Also, I'm not covering every stat, just the numbers which caught my eye.)

Team

As Yost mentioned, Vegas is leading the league is xGF% in all situations. What's helped is a league-leading, probably unsustainable +23 5v5 Penalty Differential. Basically, they're drawing a lot more power plays than they're giving.

Gallant credits the players for this statistic, but for what it's worth, no Golden Knight, besides perhaps Nate Schmidt (+10 last year), has a recent history of having a significant positive effect in this department.

Since 2007-08, the record for positive Penalty Differential is +80, authored by the 2008-09 Carolina Hurricanes. Vegas is on pace for a +86.

Speaking of unsustainable, their 9.76 Team Shooting % is second only to Toronto. I think it's safe to say, based on past individual performances, that the Knights are not an elite shooting team. A market correction to average (about 7.7 %) by the end of the season could mean losing more than one 5v5 Goal Per Game every two games. They're averaging 2.23 5v5 Goals Per Game right now; this would mean just 1.59 a game the rest of the way.

That's an oversimplification, but it's hard to see the Golden Knights shooting at a top-five rate for the rest of the season.

That said, these score and venue-adjusted 5v5 numbers don't bode poorly for Vegas:

• 50.28 5v5 Corsi For % (17th in NHL)
• 51.72 5v5 Expected Goal For % (7th)
• 50.41 5v5 Scoring Chances For % (13th)
• 49.36 5v5 High-Danger Corsi For % (18th)

These figures suggest that while the Golden Knights are giving up their fair share of 5v5 chances, they're getting them back too.

At 5v5, Luca Sbisa and Nate Schmidt are tasked with the most defensive zone starts, while Colin Miller and Brad Hunt get more offensive zone starts.

It's good news, bad news for the special teams.

On one hand, the power play has outperformed expectations:

• 21.0 Power Play % (13th)
• 46.23 Power Play Scoring Chances For/60 (28th)
• 15.84 Power Play High-Danger Corsi For/60 (28th)
• 6.17 Power Play Expected Goals For/60 (28th)

Essentially, the Golden Knights are cashing in at a better rate than you'd expect for their caliber of chances.

In terms of power play usage, it's been evenly distributed. Seven forwards (Erik Haula, William Karlsson, David Perron, Alex Tuch, Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, and James Neal) are within 14 seconds of each other, in terms of Power Play Time on Ice/Per Game (2:45 to 2:59). There really isn't a first or second unit.

On the other hand, the penalty kill has underperformed expectations:

• 78.9 Penalty Killing % (19th)
• 70.82 Penalty Killing Fenwick Against/60 (5th)
• 51.59 Penalty Killing Scoring Chances Against/60 (6th)
• 22.76 Penalty Killing High-Danger Corsi Against/60 (13th)
• 6.06 Penalty Killing Expected Goals Against/60 (3rd)

They're doing a great job of limiting quality chances on the PK, it just hasn't translated in their results.

In terms of usage, there's a clear pecking order among forwards. Smith and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare are first-choice, followed by Cody Eakin-Karlsson, then Tomas Nosek-Oscar Lindberg. Among defenders, Sbisa, Deryk Engelland, Brayden McNabb, and Schmidt each clock over two minutes of Penalty Killing Time on Ice/Per Game, while Shea Theodore, Miller, and Hunt each average under 40 seconds. So the PK will be happy to see Sbisa come back from injury.

As for goaltending, it's obviously been a mixed bag. Malcolm Subban and Oscar Dansk have overperformed; Maxime Lagace has underperformed. Right now, the team's 90.17 Overall Save % sits 22nd in the league. Perhaps Marc-Andre Fleury's return can stabilize the situation.

Assuming decreased scoring from here on in, more reliable netminding might punch the expansion side's postseason ticket.

Forwards

William Carrier

• 2.9 5v5 Penalties Drawn/60, 2.17 Penalties Taken/60 (best & worst among Vegas forwards)
• 2.9 5v5 Penalties Drawn/60 is 7th in the NHL (of 388 forwards, 100+ 5v5 minutes)
• 16.66 5v5 Hits/60 (leads Vegas forwards, David Perron is 2nd with 8.79)
• 18.11 5v5 Individual Corsi For/60 (2nd among Vegas forwards)
• 6.26 5v5 Individual High-danger Corsi For/60 is 9th in the NHL (of 388 forwards, 100+ 5v5 minutes)
• 0.93 Individual Expected Goals For/60 (3rd among Vegas forwards)

Carrier is a fascinating player. He draws (and takes) a lot of penalties, loves crashing the net, and is easily the team's most physical forward.

So far, he's had no problem getting rubber to the net, but a lack of finish has limited his playing time. Expected Goals suggest how much he should have scored with his earned shot quality and assuming average shooting ability, but the winger has underperformed.

Cody Eakin

• 60.4 Faceoff Winning % in the defensive zone is 7th in the NHL (of 52 centers, 300+ faceoffs)

Eakin has been Gallant's go-to guy on the draw; he's taken 35 % more than runner-up Bellemare. However, this defensive zone mastery probably isn't sustainable; entering this season, the ex-Star had won 50.3 % of his DZ faceoffs.

William Karlsson

• 25.5 Overall Individual Shooting % is three times his career average entering this year (7.7)
• Scored the first two short-handed goals of his career this season
• No Vegas forward has seen a larger increase of his overall icetime from last season (from 13:23 to 18:00)
• +11.06 5v5 Relative to Teammates Expected Goals For % leads Vegas forwards

Obviously, "Wild Bill" will not score 48 goals this year, as he's projected to do. However, his increased icetime and RelT xGF % suggest that he's been a valuable player in every zone and situation. Just 24, it'll be fun to watch where all this is going.

Brendan Leipsic

• 5.7 Individual 5v5 Shots/60 (2nd worst among Vegas forwards)

Leipsic has shown flashes of outstanding playmaking potential but has had some difficulty getting his shot off. While he's a playmaker first, being able to at least threaten shot will help him flourish at this level.

Oscar Lindberg

• 38.08 5v5 Defensive Zone Start % (toughest among Vegas forwards)
• -3.86 5v5 Relative Scoring Chances Against/60 (3rd among Vegas forwards)
• -4.34 5v5 Relative High-danger Scoring Chances Against/60 (leads Vegas forwards)

Surprisingly, Lindberg has drawn the largest % of defensive starts among forwards (Bellemare follows). To his credit, he appears to have suppressed chances in tough minutes.

Jonathan Marchessault

• 55.04 5v5 Corsi For % (leads team)
• +11 Relative to Teammates 5v5 Corsi For % (leads Vegas forwards, almost doubling Neal’s +5.69)
• 20.04 5v5 Individual Corsi For/60 is 4th in NHL (of 388 forwards, 100+ 5v5 mins)
• 12.86 5v5 Individual Scoring Chances For/60 leads Vegas forwards
• 6.12 Individual 5v5 Shooting % (12.44 going into season)

The Golden Knights official Twitter account has dubbed Marchessault "Corsi God." To which the 27-year-old responded, "I have no clue what Corsi means. Doesn't mean much to me. I just try to play the right way."

He may claim to not know what it means, but there are demonstrable reasons why the diminutive forward has been a positive possession player throughout his career.

"My strength is to bring pucks to my net," noted Marchessault. We can see that with his 20.04 5v5 shot attempt rate/60.

He also considers his quickness on the forecheck to be an asset. We've seen ample evidence of this throughout the season.

View post on imgur.com

View post on imgur.com

This quickness hems the defense in and will often result in shot attempts for Marchessault's side.

Also, Marchessault's company among Individual 5v5 Scoring Chance For/60 leaders this season is most impressive:

View post on imgur.com

However, his shot attempt and scoring chance rates are probably not sustainable. His current 5v5 rates are a huge leap from last season's 12.77 iCF/60 amd 6.9 iSCF/60.

On the other hand, a normalized 5v5 Shooting % might result in sustained production. The 26-year-old is setting himself up for a big payday this summer.

James Neal

• 20.3 Overall Shooting % (12.0 going into this season)
• 4 Game-Winning Goals (Career-high 6 with 2012-13 Penguins)

After a torrid start, Neal's shooting % has been stabilizing.

Tomas Nosek

• 10.87 5v5 Individual Scoring Chances For/60 (2nd among Vegas forwards)

Thought of (and used) as a defensive stopper, Nosek has enjoyed a surprising rate of scoring chances, capitalizing on a few too.

David Perron

• 2.93 5v5 Points/60 leads team
• 42.6 5v5 Expected Goals For % is worst among Vegas forwards
• 21.7 5v5 Shooting % (career 11.39 entering the season)

Perron has been the team's most productive 5v5 player so far this year, but there are some early signs of possible decline in the 29-year-old's game, chiefly with his shot rate:

View post on imgur.com

His shot attempt rates are as low as they've been since his rookie year. In fact, these rates are Joe Thorntonesque. Thornton, of course, is perhaps our generation's greatest playmaker, so pass first-second-last numbers from him aren't as alarming. From a shooter like Perron, it brings questions, though he's made his share of pretty passes this season.

About a month ago, the winger did admit to deferring too much to Neal, so that might have something to do with this decrease too.

Right now, Perron seems to be riding the percentages to some degree.

Reilly Smith

• 18:12 ATOI leads Vegas forwards
• 4 posts/crossbars hit leads team
• 6.45 5v5 Shooting % (career 10.32 going into season)

One of two Golden Knight forwards who are regulars in all situations -- Karlsson is the other -- Smith is arguably Gallant's most valuable forward. It's hard to believe that Florida was so eager to get rid of the 26-year-old that they had to pair him with Marchessault to get George McPhee to bite. The good here is that his posts/crossbars and low 5v5 Shooting % might turn on a dime.

Alex Tuch

• 58.88 5v5 5v5 Expected Goals For % is best among Vegas forwards
• 13.97 Power Play Individual High-Danger Corsi For/60 (best among Vegas forwards, almost three times more runner-up Karlsson's 4.64)

While Gallant has noted that the rookie has to polish his defensive play, he's done well in sheltered minutes. As his 5v5 xGF% suggests, you can expect mostly good things when he's on the ice. It'll be interesting to see how the 21-year-old reacts to increased responsiblity in the coming months and years.

He's also the lone Golden Knight who makes his living in front of the net on the power play. High-Danger Corsi For speaks to shot location and the 6'5" winger pretty much lives in the opposing crease.

Defensemen

Deryk Engelland

• -11.47 Penalty Killing Relative to Teammates Fenwick Against/60
• 2:54 SH TOI is 2nd on team
• 1.55 5v5 Points/60 leads defensemen (career high is 0.93 in Pittsburgh in 2013-14)

The -11.47 indicates that Engelland is allowing far fewer unblocked short-handed shot attempts per 60 minutes than his teammates. This is especially impressive considering that he trails only Sbisa as Gallant's most-used defender on the PK. However, his career rate is +7.63, which suggests that there might be some regression. Regardless, he's done yeoman's work on the PK this year.

Brad Hunt

• 3.06 5v5 Takeaways/60 is 3rd in NHL (of 212 dmen, 100+ 5v5 mins)
• 134.99 Power Play Corsi For/60 is 1st in NHL (of 64 dmen, 40+ PP mins)

According to Hunt, takeaways are not a number that anybody really pays attention to in a locker room. So we can consider that figure to be a fluke.

What may be real, however, is Hunt's effect on the power play. That 134.99 tells you that whenever Hunt is on the ice, the man advantage is firing away.

Again, it's a small sample size, but look at how the power play has worked without Hunt:

View post on imgur.com

View post on imgur.com

The power play is averaging over 24+ shots more per 60 minutes with Hunt than without. That's phenomenal. So while Hunt hasn't been as productive recently, the man advantage still looks healthier with his presence.

Here's a small sample of his work this year:

Karlsson PP goal set up by Hunt entry. Notice how he times his drop pass for when PK has set their feet, which allows for easier zone entry pic.twitter.com/qEJ5wqGjFb

— Sheng Peng (@Sheng_Peng) October 25, 2017

Both beautifully-orchestrated zone entries would lead to goals.

Perhaps McPhee has really unearthed a gem in the 29-year-old.

Brayden McNabb

• 9.27 5v5 Hits/60 leads Vegas defensemen

If you've watched the Kings, this is not surprising. McNabb is easily the Knights' most punishing blueliner.

Kings taught McNabb well #VegasBorn pic.twitter.com/7h6DXhNbKp

— Sheng Peng (@Sheng_Peng) November 20, 2017

Colin Miller

• +7.51 Relative to Teammates 5v5 Corsi For % leads Vegas defensemen
• 6.85 5v5 Hits/60 is 2nd among Vegas defensemen
• 13.6 Individual 5v5 Corsi For/60 leads Vegas defensemen
• 43.04 Individual Power Play Corsi For/60 leads NHL (of 64 blueliners, 40+ PP mins) (18.48 last year)
• 3:07 Power Play Time on Ice (1:37 last year)

Miller is a fun one to dissect.

His excellent RelT 5v5 Corsi has been strong throughout his young career. The puck is going in the right direction in his sheltered minutes.

His Hits/60 caught me by surprise. Miller would not have been anybody's answer for "Who's the most physical Golden Knights defender after McNabb?" For somebody who's been criticized for lacking firmness in his play at times, clearly, he's trying.

My favorite stat here though is the abandon with which he's shooting on the power play. However, despite the much-lower rate in Boston, Miller says that he hasn't necessarily been given more of a green light in Sin City.

Miller was quick to point out that he's missed his share of shots; indeed, he's 19th among 64 qualified defenders in Power Play Shots/60.

This is worth following; I wonder if it's simply the coaching staff putting Miller in a position to shoot, shoot, shoot, as the clear pointman to Hunt's quarterback on the man advantage.

Nate Schmidt

• 2 5v5 Minor Penalties in 22 games
• 0.17 Minors/60 is 12th in NHL (of 121 defenders, 300+ 5v5 minutes)
• 17:36 Even Strength Time on Ice leads team
• 22:17 Overall Time on Ice leads team (15:28 last year)

Among Vegas defensemen, Schmidt has seen the largest uptick in minutes over last year.

In Washington, Schmidt was given cushy zone starts and more limited minutes, reminiscent of Miller here. In Las Vegas, Gallant is using him as a shutdown defender.

Overall, Schmidt has acquitted himself well in significantly tougher minutes. Just two minor penalties with his load is impressive.

This caught my eye -- the sample size is too small to take seriously -- Schmidt may be better on the PK away from Sbisa:

View post on imgur.com

Luca Sbisa

• 3:01 SH TOI leads team

Between Sbisa and Engelland (they don't usually play with each other on PK), when Gallant wants a short-handed stop, these guys are the backbone of the defense.

Shea Theodore

• 1.18 Rebounds Created/60 all situations

Theodore has only played eight games, but this figure is an improvement over Miller's 0.76 and Schmidt 0.49. What it suggests is that Theodore is better at creating rebounds off his point shot than other blueliners.

He also did well in this category last year in Anaheim. This might be an additional reason why he's supplanted Schmidt on the power play.

Goaltending

Dylan Ferguson

• 0.00 Power Play Save % worst in NHL

This stat, of course, isn't meant to be taken seriously. Poor kid! That was one power play goal allowed on one shot against in Edmonton. Well, safe to say that he'll never forget it.

Maxime Lagace

• 87.82 5v5 Save % last in NHL (of 31 goalies, 500+ mins)
• -3.47 5v5 dSv% (91.29 5v5 Expected Save %)

Considering that Lagace was considered the organization's fourth-string netminder to start the season, he's performed ably, managing a .500 record (5-5-1).

-3.47 represents the difference between his actual 5v5 Save % and his Expected Save %.

Malcolm Subban

• 98.77 5v5 Save % leads NHL (100+ mins)

This figure can be taken pretty much as seriously as Ferguson's stat. Regression is an absolute certainly. Consider that Sergei Bobrovsky leads all regular goalies (500+ mins) with a 94.32 5v5 Save %.

That said, we'll see how much Subban regresses. In limited time, he's demonstrated NHL-caliber skills and athleticism. As Fleury mends, Subban will be given every opportunity to stake his claim as number-one now and in the future.

***

Stats as of 11/26/17, courtesy of Corsica, Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, and Sporting Charts.

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