My divisional previews or the 2016-17 NHL regular season extends into its third week with this analysis of the Atlantic Division. (You can find the Western Conference previews
here and
here .
The Atlantic ended last season with the second-worst combined standings point total (87.88 average) and only three of its teams made the playoffs, but there’s reason to believe this will be a significantly more competitive division this year. Here's how I see the division shaking out:
Florida Panthers
Key off-season additions: Centers Jared McCann and Jonathan Marchessault; defensemen Keith Yandle, Jason Demers and Mark Pysyk; goaltender James Reimer
Key off-season deletions: Wingers Teddy Purcell; centers Jiri Hudler and Rocco Grimaldi; defensemen Brian Campbell, Erik Gudbranson and Dimitri Kulikov; goaltender Al Montoya
Good Team? Correct. The Panthers surprised some by riding a group of grizzled veterans and ungrizzled, dynamic youngsters all the way to the division title. But clearly, ownership wasn’t satisfied with the end result (a first-round exit at the hands of the Islanders), as GM Dale Tallon was bumped upstairs and Tom Rowe replaced him, and Rowe wasted no time putting his stamp on the roster: the Panthers drastically remade their defense corps, signing veterans Yandle and Demers, allowing crafty Brian Campbell walk away in free agency, and trading longtime team members Gudbranson (to Vancouver for center Jared McCann) and Kulikov (to Buffalo for Pysyk).
As a result, Florida is even younger than they were in many senses, and better defensively. McCann adds to a deep group of centermen, and Yandle and Demers should be nice fits around cornerstone third-year blueliner Aaron Ekblad. In addition, one of the summer’s more underrated signings may well turn out to be their five-year, $17-million deal with former Leafs and Sharks goalie James Reimer. He’ll allow star Roberto Luongo to preserve his best form and provide insurance should injuries come into play.
And Florida’s forwards are nothing to sneeze at. Featuring Jaromir Jagr (who may yet be revealed as a Czech warlock capable of laughing in the face of Father Time) dazzling center Aleksander Barkov and winger Jonathan Huberdeau, the Panthers’ forwards are deep and have a solid balance of youth and experience. There’s no way they can or should miss out on a post-season berth with this lineup.
Probably great team? Yes, the potential for something memorable in Miami is rising, but the Panthers’ core aren’t yet proven playoff commodities. And although Yandle and Demers may turn out to be worthwhile acquisitions, I don’t see them as players who can push Florida to the top of the heap. But if players like Barkov, Huberdeau, Nick Bjugstad or Reilly Smith step up and deliver in high-pressure situations, Florida has the components to prove last year was no fluke, and the next decade or so could end with similarly positive results.
Reason for concern it could all go sideways? I’m not a fan of the Yandle contract, but I do see – him as someone who makes Florida a better team than they were last season. And I think the same can probably be said for most moves the Panthers made this summer. Head coach Gerard Gallant has shown he understands his group, and he’s got a better one to work with this time around. What I’m saying is, no, I don’t believe there’s any reason to be concerned for their season. They may not finish atop the Atlantic again – that other Florida team might have something to say about it – but the Panthers show no signs of regression.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Key off-season additions: Winger Cory Conacher; defenseman James Wisniewski
Key off-season deletions: Center Jonathan Marchessault; defenseman Matt Carle
Good Team? Oh hell yes. Bolts GM Steve Yzerman deserves all the credit for finding a way to keep his team together, the salary cap be damned. Retaining the services of superstar Steven Stamkos felt like a coup, but really, the fact virtually the entire roster remains intact – with room only to add a couple of veterans in Conacher and Wisniewski as low-cost depth options – is more impressive. And deserved: to come within one win of returning to the Stanley Cup Final is to present a strong case to stay together, and Tampa Bay did exactly that in spite of a slew of injuries to key players during the regular and post-seasons.
The bottom line here: Blueliner Victor Hedman is a joy to watch, and so is winger and playoff ninja Nikita Kucherov, and so is ice-water-bug and center Tyler Johnson, and…well, you get the idea. Depth, top-end talent and solid management are what have gotten them to this point, and none of that has changed. This is a very good team.
Probably great team? Oh hell yes. The Lightning steamrolled their first two playoff opponents this past spring, and they weren’t anywhere close to full strength while doing so. If good fortune smiles on them on the injury front, they’re built to win, win handily, and win now. The Eastern Conference doesn’t have an abundance of teams you can honestly say are able to compete night-in and night-out with the beasts of the Western Conference, but the Bolts are one of them, and they have a chance to win it all this season.
Reason for concern it could all go sideways? No. Hey, it basically went as sideways as it could for them health-wise in 2015-16, and they still finished with just one fewer win than the best team in the division. They may trade goalie Ben Bishop before the season is through, but his deal will almost certainly be about plugging holes acquired during the year. Expect to see the Lightning in the playoffs, and expect to see them for quite a while after the playoffs begin.
Detroit Red Wings
Key off-season additions: Centers Frans Nielsen and Joe Vitale; wingers Steve Ott and Thomas Vanek
Key off-season deletions: Centers Pavel Datsyuk and Brad Richards
Good Team? It feels odd questioning the status of the Red Wings – one of the NHL’s most consistently-run franchises of the modern era – but here we are. Detroit grabbed the final wildcard playoff berth in the East last year to keep their remarkable streak alive, but they won just a single post-season game, and have now only won four playoff games in the past three Cup tournaments. You have to be good to make the playoffs, but watching the Wings has been like watching a coastline slowly recede: it’s hard to know exactly when certain points began falling away, but you can clearly tell something has disappeared.
Certainly, that changes this year, because this is the year we know something major changed, and nothing major changed to try and make up for it. I speak, of course, of the NHL retirement of legendary center Pavel Datsyuk, who’s currently playing in his homeland of Russia. Datsyuk’s announcement he was leaving the league – and the Wings’ subsequent trading of his contract to Arizona – wasn’t a surprise, but Detroit GM Ken Holland couldn’t turn his absence into the acquisition of a similarly-skilled star. (Apologies to Frans Nielsen, the terrific former Isles center Holland used some of that cap space on.)
It would be foolish to completely count out the Wings from making the playoffs yet again, but they’re going to be in as big a dogfight as ever to qualify for the playoffs for the 26th consecutive year.
Probably great team? Again, it doesn’t feel natural to say so, but no, probably not. Sure, Detroit still has players any team would want on the roster – youngster Dylan Larkin and greybeard stars Henrik Zetterberg and Niklas Kronwall – but there are large patches of question marks both at forward and on defense, and their goaltending isn’t superhuman enough to carry them past the likes of Tampa Bay or the defending-champion Penguins in a playoff series. They might win a playoff round or two, but you need to do more than that to be considered a great team, and it’s difficult to envision the Wings doing so at this point in their history.
Reason for concern it could all go sideways? Yes. Kronwall is 35 – three of Detroit’s blueliners are 30 or older – and Zetterberg is the same age. Losing either of them for a lengthy stretch could be the nail in the coffin of that playoff streak. So could a fading offense that finished last season as the worst of any playoff team. The fact Holland was willing to take a chance on Vanek, whose on-ice reputation is not at its peak, speaks volumes about where the Wings are in that area, and not good volumes.
The Wings deserve the benefit of the doubt that things won’t completely fall apart for them. However, their trajectory is pointing in one direction, and it’s not one their fans are accustomed to. If sideways means missing the playoffs, sideways has a decent shot of happening this year.
Boston Bruins
Key off-season additions: Centers David Backes, Riley Nash and Dominic Moore; goaltender Anton Khudobin
Key off-season deletions: Winger Loui Eriksson and Lee Stempniak; Center Max Talbot; Defenseman Dennis Seidenberg; goaltender Jonas Gustavsson
Good Team? The Bruins finished the year with more wins than Detroit, but missed the playoffs for the second straight season. You can’t be considered a good team if you miss the playoffs two years in a row, can you? Probably not, but the changes GM Don Sweeney made this off-season look like that will change for the better. The addition of Backes gives them a major upgrade at the pivot position, and the signings of Nash and Moore provide exceptional depth down the middle. And bringing in Khudobin may be an improvement on the backup netminding spot, giving star Tuukka Rask some breathing room.
If you think the Red Wings could fall out of the playoffs – and I do – one of the teams that could easily take their place is the Bruins. Even after all the changes, they’re still going to be one of the most punishing teams in the league to play against, and if they stay healthy, they’ve got the talent to get back into the post-season.
Probably great team? ‘Great’ feels like a stretch, largely because Boston’s defense corps is basically the same one they finished the year with – veteran D-man John-Michael Liles a late-season addition to that group – and I’m not wholly enamored with it. Sweeney cut loose veteran Dennis Seidenberg via a buyout, and though that might be addition by subtraction, it isn’t enough addition to make the Bruins’ blueliners one of the best in the game. Oh, and Zdeno Chara turns 40 in March. Probably not a great sign for this team’s potential to be great.
Reason for concern it could all go sideways? Not especially. Milan Lucic and Tyler Seguin may be long-gone, but Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci still play here. Eriksson departed for Vancouver this summer, but Brad Marchand still plays here. Chara is nearly 40, but Rask is still just 29. Change has been constant since last the Bruins won the Cup six years ago, but what remains should keep them in the thick of things this season.
Ottawa Senators
Key off-season additions: Centers Derick Brassard and Chris Kelly; head coach Guy Boucher; GM Pierre Dorion
Key off-season deletions: Centers Mika Zibanejad and Scott Gomez; defensemen Chris Phillips and Patrick Wiercioch; winger Alex Chiasson
Good Team? Let’s put it this way: I don’t think the Sens are a bottom-feeder. They’re driven – from owner Eugene Melnyk on down – to be an impact franchise, and aren’t afraid of making jaw-dropping transactions. The acquisition of former Leafs captain Dion Phaneuf was one such deal last season; and landing center Brassard for a very good young player in Zibanejad is another. That willingness to gamble is admirable on a lot of levels.
That said, has anything the Sens have done – including putting together a new management team of Dorion and Boucher – made them a lock for the playoffs this year? I’d say no. Now, that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t want players like star blueliner Erik Karlsson on my team, but I am saying Ottawa’s collection of forwards isn’t anywhere near the best in the league or the Atlantic. And that defense they’ve left largely untouched? It was part of a team that surrendered 247 goals last year; only Columbus (252) and Calgary (260) gave up more. So they’ll have to show consistently they’ve improved on the back end this year before I call them a good team.
Probably great team? Yeah, no, for the reasons I’ve specified above. To be fair, Ottawa didn’t have Kyle Turris in the lineup for 25 games, only had Phaneuf around for 20 games, and hasn’t had Brassard around for any games, but their presence this year won’t take the Sens from the lower-middle of the East to the top. The new coach/GM combo will need some time to acclimate to their respective circles of power, and I can see more moves of consequence coming once Boucher and Dorion settle in – and that will result in some more acclimation time.
Granted, that may yet lead to them being great down the road, but this season? No. This season, I think the Senators have got the potential to get back in the playoffs and win a round or two, but that’s about it.
Reason for concern it could all go sideways? No, because I don’t think fan expectations for this group are high enough for them to fall far. They’ll have to rely on veteran goalie Craig Anderson quite often, and grind out victories to stay in the playoff race. If that doesn’t happen, they’re probably not a poor enough team to finish dead last in the Atlantic and/or the East, and you usually don’t acquire future generational players that way. But on second thought, that is about as sideways as it gets in the cap era. So on second thought, yes, there’s a chance.
Montreal Canadiens
Key off-season additions: Defensemen Shea Weber and Zach Redmond; center Andrew Shaw; wingers Alexander Radulov, Stefan Matteau and Bobby Farnham; goalie Al Montoya
Key off-season deletions: Defensemen P.K. Subban and Victor Bartley; center Lars Eller; winger Mike Brown
Good Team? That depends – is Carey Price playing? No NHLer was more valuable to his team than the Canadiens’ superstar. Without him, the Habs performed a free-fall that may qualify them for some sort of X Games award, and Montreal’s shockingly ugly plummet resulted in the trading of star blueliner P.K. Subban to Nashville this summer.
Yes, the player the Canadiens received in that transaction – former Preds captain and physical menace Shea Weber – is a player of substance, too, albeit in a far different fashion than Subban. And yes, there’s a chance the Habs’ decision to bring Russian star Alex Radulov back to the NHL after a four-year absence could pay off and give Montreal’s wishy-washy offense a shot in the arm. But really, we now know who the straw that stirs the drink is in Quebec, and his name is Price. If he’s around, Montreal can be good; if not, they’re in trouble – even with newcomer Montoya serving as backup/emergency longer-term replacement.
Probably great team? That depends – is Price playing spectacularly? Again, the star netminder has the tools and disposition to steal games all on his own, and his nature as a competitor is contagious around his teammates. Shaw and Weber will make them harder to play against, but even with the other changes GM Marc Bergevin made – bringing in Shaw and his championship pedigree from his time in Chicago to replace Lars Eller – there’s not enough here to categorize the Habs as a great team at the moment.
Reason for concern it could all go sideways? You wouldn’t have thought it could go as sideways as it did for the Canadiens last year, but it did, so you’d have to say yes to this question again. Radulov could be a bust – the last time he scored four or more goals in an NHL season, the season was 2007-08 – and Montreal’s defense is looking a lot older with Subban gone. Andrei Markov will turn 38 in a few months, and Alexei Emelin will be 31 in April. And head coach Michel Therrien has more pre-heat on him heading into the year than perhaps any NHL bench boss. Now you see why it’s reasonable to picture more bad days and angry newspaper headlines on the horizon in Montreal. Doesn’t mean it will happen, but it definitely could.
Buffalo Sabres
Key off-season additions: Winger Kyle Okposo; defensemen Dmitry Kulikov and Justin Falk; goaltender Anders Nilsson
Key off-season deletions: Center David Legwand; defensemen Mark Pysyk and Carlo Colaiacovo; goaltender Chad Johnson
Good Team? Not yet. The Sabres are doing things the right way in the cap system – cleaning house, taking their lumps, drafting elite talents such as Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart, surrounding them with established veterans such as Ryan O’Reilly and Zach Bogosian – but it’s incredibly difficult to climb the standings (just ask Edmonton) from the basement of a conference to a playoff position, and the Sabres may well learn another painful lesson to that end this season.
The addition of Okposo, a 28-year-old who’s amassed 49 goals in the last two years he played at least 70 games, will help them try and make that jump. And Kulikov is a smart veteran who’ll bolster Buffalo’s blueline. But that defense corps still isn’t going to put the fear of the hockey gods into opponents, and No. 1 goalie Robin Lehner is going to have to be at his very best to give them a shot at winning consistently and making the playoffs for the first time since 2011. Could this be the year that happens? You can’t rule it out. But should people expect it to happen? No.
Probably great team? Not yet. GM Tim Murray added another spectacular-looking youngster in Alexander Nylander at the 2016 NHL draft in Buffalo, giving the Sabres one hell of a budding group of skilled forwards. But Nylander is 18. Defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen is just 21. Eichel is 19, and Reinhart is 20. The best days of this team are still a ways off, but these guys are worth being patient for.
Reason for concern it could all go sideways? Nope. Head coach Dan Bylsma keeps his charges even-keeled, and they’ve got a great leadership collective with veterans like Brian Gionta and Matt Moulson in the room. They’ll still have growing pains, but the worst is over for Buffalo.
Toronto Maple Leafs
(Full disclosure: I write part-time for the Maple Leafs team website as a columnist. My analysis of them would remain the same whether I did or not, but you should know.)
Key off-season additions: Center Auston Matthews; winger Matt Martin; defensemen Nikita Zaitsev and Roman Polak; goaltenders Frederik Andersen and Jhonas Enroth
Key off-season deletions: Wingers P-A Parenteau, Michael Grabner and Brad Boyes; goaltender Jonathan Bernier
Good Team? Any team that finishes the previous season with the NHL’s worst record will have to prove themselves good before people believe them, and that’s where the Leafs are at entering this campaign. However, if you were paying close attention to Toronto’s games last year, you’ll know this franchise was competitive in the grand majority of games in their first year under head coach Mike Babcock and GM Lou Lamoriello – and their transactions in this off-season, combined with the growth of some of their younger talents, could give them enough firepower to surprise people this year and put them in the race for a wild-card berth.
To wit: the Leafs took phenom center Auston Matthews with the first-overall pick in this year’s draft, and though management has been right to temper expectations for the youngster and stress the team concept, the 18-year-old has the vision, touch and anticipation for the play that teams build champions around. Like everyone else on the roster, he’ll have to earn his minutes with Babcock, but Matthews has the chance to be a special player and one of the key cornerstones - if not the key cornerstone – in Toronto for years to come.
Former Isles winger Matt Martin gives the Buds some more snarl, but with Nazem Kadri, Leo Komarov and very probably Nikita Soshnikov and Zach Hyman in tow, Toronto will be painful to play against. And there is now serious competition for jobs, with veterans such as Brooks Laich and Colin Greening competing for time with youngsters like Hyman and Connor Brown. Then there are the high-end talents of William Nylander and Mitch Marner, who both could be in the Leafs’ lineup on opening night.
Finally, you’ve got a changed look on the back end: Lamoriello completely remade the goaltending, dealing for former Duck Andersen and signing former Kings backup Enroth; he also added 24-year-old Russian Zaitsev and brought Polak back for a second tour of duty. There is now competition here, too: D-man Connor Carrick, who starred for the AHL Marlies last spring, will push Frank Corrado for a spot, and only Polak and veteran Matt Hunwick are older than 26.
All things considered, there’s every reason to believe Toronto will be a better team this season. How much better is the question, and don’t let the Leafs-haters fool you into thinking they’re going to be a pushover. The opposite may well be true – the Buds may be closer to a post-season spot than you think.
Probably great team? No. One day? Possibly. One day that arrives before many predict? Yes, possibly. But this year? This soon in the process team president Brendan Shanahan undertook only a couple years ago? No, and it would be unfair to put those expectations on them at this point. The Leafs are all about growth – at the NHL level, and as we saw last year with the Marlies, at the American League level – and so far, they’ve shown enough to keep fans optimistic.
Reason for concern it could all go sideways? No. Shanahan, Babcock and Lamoriello are about as bullet-proofed from criticism as can be. They’ve shut down the rumor/leaks mill that had been churning in Toronto for decades, and they’ve shown they won’t be lured into making predictions as to how long it will take or what team they’ll model themselves under. They’re living by their own expectations, and if they get there a little slower than they’d hoped – or a little faster – it’s all the same, because the destination and goals are the same.
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