Few teams were as hot as the New York Islanders to end the regular season.
Seemingly almost dead in the water with 10 games to go, the Islanders stormed back with an 8-0-1 record to close out the season, securing a playoff spot in the process and capping off the season with a win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Wednesday. It was a wild and fairly unexpected run, with New York carrying arguably more momentum than they have all season.
Entering the postseason though, they run up against a very, very tough test right from the get-go in the Carolina Hurricanes. For as good as the Islanders have been lately, Carolina has been one of the league’s top teams since the start of 2024 and post-trade deadline, they’ve been almost unstoppable when icing a full lineup.
So on the eve of a first round rematch against the very team that eliminated them one year ago, what are the Islanders’ chances?
OFFENSE
Perhaps the biggest mismatch between the teams is up front. To the Islanders’ credit, Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat and Brock Nelson have been able to carry a lot of the team’s offense. The trio, along with a surging Kyle Palmieri, have combined for 120 goals this season, essentially putting the team’s scoring on their shoulders.
The issue is those 120 goals account almost 50 percent of the team’s total goals this season. There’s a massive drop-off in production after Palmieri, with the Islanders receiving a fraction of the offense from the rest of their forward group. Outside of the four forwards, no other member of the forward group even managed 40 points this season. Anders Lee has picked up the pace a little bit and others can provide depth offense, but now with Jean-Gabriel Pageau possibly injured as well, the Islanders are looking very thin down the lineup. New York’s issue throughout the entire Lamoriello era has been a lack of offense, but this year, the problem is a little reversed from what we’ve normally seen. This time, New York actually has a group of forwards in place at the top of the lineup to provide fairly consistent offense, but now lack quality secondary scoring around them.
For the Hurricanes though, scoring comes a little easier. Last year, Carolina’s issue was a lack of finishing ability, coupled with major injuries to their forward group. But with a healthy and improved offense after adding Jake Guentzel at the trade deadline (as well as Evgeny Kuznetsov), the Hurricanes are more well-equipped than ever offensively.
Adding Guentzel has elevated Sebastian Aho’s game, with the Hurricanes finally able to establish a truly scary top line, as they run with Guentzel-Aho-Jarvis. Even after that though, Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas, and Teuvo Teravainen provide more options than spots on the wing in the top-six, while the likes of Jordan Martinook, Jordan Staal, Stefan Noesen and others give the Hurricanes one of the strongest bottom-six groups in the NHL. The Hurricanes’ one weakness remains their center strength below Aho, but with so many other pieces in place on the wings, Carolina has a massive advantage when it comes to offense.
DEFENSE
While the Islanders’ defense is still a strength overall, it’s not necessarily as much of a brick wall as it was at times in their back-to-back Conference Final runs in 2020 and 2021. Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock has regressed a little from their time as the team’s clear top pairing, but with Alexander Romanov and Noah Dobson stepping up this season to take on even bigger roles, the Islanders’ top-four group is still relatively strong. Not having Scott Mayfield on the bottom unit is a bit of a blow, but Mike Reilly remains one of the best waiver pickups in a long time.
Of course, Dobson’s massive year has been a huge storyline this season, with the defenseman exploding for 70 points. Especially with a forward group that struggles to generate offense on their own, Dobson has maybe been the Islanders’ MVP this year.
That said, the Hurricanes’ defense group is about as strong as you’ll see in the NHL. Jaccob Slavin is able to kill plays in a way that few others can, with Brent Burns still working very well on that top pairing as well. Meanwhile, Brady Skjei has been one of the team’s unsung heroes on his pairing with Brett Pesce, and Dmitry Orlov and Jalen Chatfield create one of the more capable bottom pairings in the league.
Dobson may be able to add offense for the Islanders, but the Hurricanes’ defense group also contributes a lot of offense, with those six defenders combining for 46 goals this season. Ultimately, Carolina’s blue line is still very, very well-rounded, and gets the edge over New York’s defense group.
GOALTENDING
The Islanders have stable goaltending heading into the postseason, but not in the way we would’ve expected. While Ilya Sorokin has stumbled a little bit this season, Semyon Varlamov has fully stepped up to the task, emerging as the team’s go-to goalie down the stretch. Varlamov has been playing pretty much lights out, posting a .935 save percentage across his last eight games.
Of course, you have to imagine Patrick Roy wouldn’t hesitate to go right to Sorokin if Varlamov is shaky at any point, but even if Varlamov taking over was a bit of a curveball, goaltending is still an asset for New York.
However, after a disastrous run of netminding in the first half of the season, the Hurricanes have also found consistency between the pipes. Since Fredeik Andersen’s return in early March, he's managed a ridiculous .951 save percentage across 10 games.
When describing Andersen in the playoffs though, a word that comes to mind is 'inconsistent'. Dating back to his time with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Andersen could rotate between game-stealing performances, and outings where he was allowing goals that just completely sunk his team’s chances, all in the very same series. He did take a step towards quieting that narrative across his nine playoff games with Carolina last season, but it’s at least something to keep an eye on.
As is the case with New York though, Carolina also has a solid secondary option. Pyotr Kochetkov was counted on for 42 games this season, and posted a .923 save percentage over his last 30 games. We’ve seen before that Rod Brind’Amour also doesn’t mind going back and forth between his goalies in the postseason, and we can expect him to consider using both if it’s warranted.
Regardless, both teams enter the playoffs with goaltending as an asset.
SPECIAL TEAMS
There’s not much to go over here, other than to say special teams are going to be a massive hurdle for New York.
Carolina’s power play ranks second in the NHL, and even after a terrible start, the Hurricanes’ penalty kill ranks as the best in the league. The Islanders, on the other hand, ranked 19th on the power play and dead last on the penalty kill.
So not much analysis needed here, the Islanders are just going to have to win the 5-on-5 battle and try to stay disciplined.
In a broad sense, I don’t think anyone’s debating that Carolina is the favourite entering the series. They’re better in pretty much every single area on paper, and are even much stronger than they were last year when they took down New York in six games.
But the Islanders have some momentum on their side, and we’ve seen before that if New York can get into the playoffs, they can go on a run.
New York Islanders Blogger • 
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