Welcome to the first Jets mailbag.
Lots of people have requested some questions, and I chose some to go over today. I will be doing another just like this around this time next month, so if I didn’t get to yours, make sure to submit it again next time around.
Let’s get right into it.
Where does Adam Lowry rank in terms of offence being produced by third line centers? I would also be interested to see his possession numbers compared to other third line centers.
-TheUltimateJet
Adam Lowry is not known for his offensive output. His shorthanded ability is a different conversation, but for all situations combined, he is not leaned on for that extra goal the Jets need. How much does he really produce, though?
Using DailyFaceoff.com, I have taken my best shot at who the 3C is on each team, though on many teams it changes each game. This table is in order by points per game (PPG), though possession numbers are included on the right side as well, which I will look at after.
As you can see, Adam Lowry ranks very low in the point-per-game column. Registering just 12 goals and 7 assists in 71 games this season. Of those 19 points, 3 goals and 2 assists were short-handed, as well. Lowry being ranked 27th for PPG among 3rd line centers is not great, but as I said, he is not leaned on for the offensive output. As the defensive center he is supposed to be, he ranks in the 87th percentile among 3rd liners in the defensive category, as per the JFresh WAR models.
In terms of measuring the possession aspect asked about in this question, it is a whole lot harder to answer. There are a few stats that are used to measure this. Puck Possession Time, Corsi%, and Fenwick.
What are all of these fancy stats? Well, they are actually fairly simple. The only issue with these, is that a lot of the stats have to do with team-performance.
Possession Time vs. Corsi vs. Fenwick
Possession time is about as simple as it sounds. It is the amount of time you have the puck on your stick. A player like Josh Morrissey will have a lot more possession time than many others on the team, as he likely spends 8-10 seconds standing behind his net while his teammates change, and get set up for a rush. Adam Lowry would likely be lower on this list, as he doesn’t really carry the puck often.
Corsi is a stat measured by shot attempts (any puck that is shot towards the net, including misses, saves, and blocks) for, and against at even strength. Think of it like it is plus/minus for shot attempts, put into a percentage. If the Jets get 13 shot attempts while Adam Lowry is on the ice, and the opposing team gets 17 shot attempts while Lowry is on the ice, the calculation for Lowry’s individual CorsiFor% would be (13/13+17)x100, which would equal 43.3%. Therefore, you can see that while Adam Lowry was on the ice, the Jets accounted for 43.3% of shot attempts.
Fenwick is very similar, but does not account for blocked shots.
I will just be using CorsiFor% (CF%) to measure this one.
For the sake of space, I won’t be posting the same graph as above sorted by CF%, but at the top of the list is Jordan Staal (57.2%), Colin White (56.2%), and Anton Lundell (55.7%). At the bottom of the list is Nick Bonino (39.1%), Juho Lammikko (40.9%), and Jay Beagle (42.2%).
Adam Lowry (47.6%) sits in the lower end, ranked 22nd among the 3rd line centers listed.
Do you feel there is any realistic developmental benefit to having top level/borderline NHL ready prospects in the AHL VS the NHL?
For players just making the jump to North America it can be useful, if only for adjusting to the smaller ice, but I reckon for a player on the fence it does very little.
Rexypoo
I think it is important to take into account the current NHL roster, and the level of competitiveness. Looking at this season's Winnipeg team, they added Brendan Dillon and Nate Schmidt in the off-season, and the expectation was to compete for the Stanley Cup. Now, I don’t blame the Jets for making the moves they did, as on paper, they should have been a lock for a playoff spot. Clearly things didn’t go the way they wanted, so let’s do our best to ignore what the Jets look like, and where they are in the standings and zoom in on just the prospects.
Ville Heinola’s game comes with a big focus on the offense. Starting there, his AHL stats are incredibly similar when comparing. Last season, he recorded 11 points in 19 games for a 0.58PPG. This season, in 34 games, he registered 20 points, giving him a 0.59PPG. Not much growth there, at all. I will say, though I haven’t spent a ton of time analyzing his play in the AHL in Manitoba, his defensive abilities have improved. Is this what the plan was for him? Who knows. But Ville Heinola did not do much developing this season offensively, which is the primary part of his game. Seeing him suit up in the NHL for only 12 games, he managed to record 5 assists, which is some phenomenal translation from his AHL game. This should be an indicator that he was ready for the jump, and has not much else to prove in the American league. He absolutely needs the ice-time in the NHL to adapt to the level of compete and learn to defend against the NHL teams.
Another prospect mentioned is David Gustafsson. While his PPG in the AHL dropped from last season, he has grown his game a lot. The transition from the Swedish ice to North American took some time, but he has developed into a great asset, since being drafted in 2018. Ideally being given a shot in the bottom-six of the Jets, they have Adam Lowry, who they have locked up for a long time there, and Dominic Toninato and Jansen Harkins who they also have grown to be comfortable with on the fourth line. Would I like to see Gustafsson get a shot in the bottom-six? Absolutely. But, up until the second half of this season, I see it totally justified to have kept him in the AHL. I think trying him out on the 3rd line, and bumping Lowry down to the 4th would be ideal.
The best answer I can give to this is that it is very different for every player. Former 1st overall pick, Rasmus Dahlin jumped right into the NHL after playing in Sweden. Sure, he took a step back the next two seasons, but he looked very good transitioning to the North American ice. On the other hand, Senators prospect Lassi Thomson, who looked very good playing in Finland, really struggled when coming over to North America. He didn’t adapt well in his first AHL season, and now is an NHL defenseman playing in the AHL. It is all part of the development in them getting comfortable to the new speed, size, and play of the game.
How do you measure a players defensive effectiveness? I see that Scheifele has consistently been put out against more difficult opponents throughout his career as opposed to Adam Lowry. However there are posters on this board, in the media and Jets fans on other platforms that continue to malign Scheifele’s defensive play.
I would also be interested in seeing how Scheifele’s offensive production lines up against other teams top centers. I think the results will surprise many people.
-TheUltimateJet
how does Shief's defensive and possession numbers rank against other #1 centers. Why not include offensive #'s and plus minus as well compared to all other teams number 1 centers.
-Ross77
I chose these two questions to go together, as they are kind of asking the same thing, with a bit of a different spin on each, so I will answer them together.
Starting from the top with these questions, calculating defensive metrics are incredibly complicated. A brief explanation of each factor that *may* come into account, depending on the model you are referring to.
xGA: Expected Goals Against takes the goal value of all of the fenwick (explained above) shots taken. The higher quality fenwick shot, the more value it has in terms of resulting in a goal. The higher quality fenwick shots an individual player faces while on the ice, lowers the xGA.
CA%: CorsiAgainst% is the opposite as I explained earlier. If you are allowing a ton of shot opportunities while on the ice, your CA% will be low.
O/D-Zone Starts: Taking into account where the player starts each shift has an impact on the defensive calculations. If player A starts all of their shifts in the D-Zone, while player B starts theirs in the O-Zone, and perform identically in the D-Zone, player A will have slightly less negative impact against the defensive metrics.
QoC: Quality of Competition is a heavy factor as well. The skill level of the players you are matched up against have a heavy weight in your defensive, and offensive metrics. Mark Scheifele is in the 95th percentile among 1st line forwards in terms of QoC, meaning he has a lot of tough matchups.
There is a ton more, but these are the main things models look at. Hope that helps you understand.
As for Mark Scheifele, here is a table comparing all of the NHL’s #1 centers with their PPG, CF%, and +/-, sorted by PPG.
Mark Scheifele ranks T-8th among all 1C’s in the NHL in terms of point-per-game. This is a very good place for him to be, considering some of the unreal talent the NHL has. I don’t think many people question Scheifele’s offensive capabilities, but it is good to see the numbers stacking up well against the other stars in the league.
In terms of Scheifele’s possession, he is on the lower end sitting 19th in CF%, but among the best in the league, his 50.3% is respectable.
Finally, the +/-. This stat is a very tough stat to look at. It is a stat that could have nothing to do with the player, but in this case, at -17, I would say that it is worth noting. Sitting at 29th in the league, the Jets’ #1 center is only above Tage Thompson (-19), Trevor Zegras (-23), and Nick Suzuki (-27). Three very young players in this league, playing huge roles on struggling teams. Scheifele has always been a positive player in the category, until last season (-4) and this year.
While I can’t exactly track down how Sceifele’s defensive numbers stack up against all of the other 1st line centers, he is rated in the 0th percentile among 1st line forwards according to the JFresh WAR model, while his QoC rating is in the 95th percentile (very tough matchups).
That is all I am going to cover for this mailbag. I appreciate all of the input, questions, and suggestions for this. We established that among 3rd line centers, Adam Lowry is on the lower end of the ratings, but the on-ice production and impact is what is really important, and I do not believe that he is causing any kind of hindrance on this team.
We also see what many already knew, being that Mark Scheifele is a great offensive 1C, but poor defensively. I don’t think that moving Mark Scheifele solves this teams problems, but if the Jets can find a move that makes sense somehow, there is room for improvement with a more well-rounded game.
Thank you for taking the time to read, I hope you all enjoyed, and learned a thing or two. Have a great day, and I look forward to doing this again next month.
Jacob
Winnipeg Jets Blogger • 
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