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Coyotes Should Trade Oliver Ekman-Larsson |
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In the NHL you almost never see blockbuster trades and you almost never see star players traded, especially not ones in their prime.
The Coyote's Oliver Ekman-Larsson is 24 years old and statistically likely to be at his absolute peak right now. The odds are, his best years will be last season, this season and next season. Sure, he should be good for years, but the Coyotes are currently in the midst of wasting the prime of the best player in their franchise history.
And so, they should trade him.
I don't say this lightly either. OEL is my favorite player in the NHL. I would prefer that it didn't come to this, but if you actually consider all of the facts, it is the obvious conclusion. No matter how much it might hurt, it is the best thing the franchise could do.
Let us consider the facts and see if you don't end up agreeing with me:
1. The Coyotes are a mess. Their current NHL team is garbage. They have one great defenseman, two decent ones and some duds. One great rookie, one offensively great rookie, one NHL centre and no NHL goalies.
The system of this rebuilding team is barren of quality defensive prospects. They have lots of decent forward prospects, but by the time enough of them are ready to ice a team good enough to compete, the best player the team has ever had will be approaching 30 and looking for a contract that pays him $9 million per year.
The Coyotes should be able to develop their current group of prospects into a competitive team just in time for OEL to demand a massive new contract that the team is never going to give him.
Actually, PK Subban signed for $9 million a year ago, so what OEL is going to command in three years is hard to tell - maybe it will be $14. Either way, I only know the Coyotes won't pay it.
2. Ekman-Larsson is at his absolute peak in value. If you put him on the trade market today, a team would be buying one of the top five defensman in the NHL with a $5.5 million dollar steal of a contract for three years after this one.
A peaking elite defenseman locked into a team friendly contract for three more years.
The potential pay off for trading him is unreal - every team in the NHL would bid.
Conclusion:
Given the Coyotes current roster construction, the timeline for winning, OEL's contract and his market value, it's really an obvious decision to trade him. Now, the team probably doesn't have the guts to do it, but that doesn't change the fact that it's the right move.
OEL is a great player, but to waste his best years on team like this isn't fair to him and is a horrible use of assets. The Coyotes are a budget team that will never spend to the NHL salary cap, so trading a player at his absolute peak is really the only option if they ever actually want to win - because loading up on young players on cheap deals is the only way to win if you won't spend to the cap.
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I hate to say I told you so, but I did tell you the Coyotes, with this roster, were going to crash and burn. Last night they lost their third straight game. They also allowed five goals for the third straight games.
At this point, holding a contest to let one of the dozens of people who attend their home games play net would most likely improve the team.
I don't even know what I saw last night. It was brutal.
I don't even know where to start with these three games. The Coyotes didn't just lose - they got absolutely brutalized. Obliterated. Destroyed. Assaulted.
Here are the shot attempts from the last three games:
Vs Nashville: 59-30
Vs Detroit: 55- 35
vs Buffalo: 41 - 33
And those aren't even teams that are that good.
The Coyotes have played so badly the last three games that being outscored 15-5 is actually somewhat complimentary to them. This is what eventually happens when you dress Antoine Vermette so high in the lineup in 2015, when you dress John Scott, don't have any centres beyond Martin Hanzal, or when Nick Grossmann is on your team - it's inevitable.
How bad is this Coyotes roster: It's last year Buffalo bad.
And they still have a PDO of 101.3, so the correction is not complete, as the Coyotes have the second highest shooting percentage in the NHL and that is sure to fall.
In the last three games, it's become apparent that Antoine Vermette is done as an effective NHL player. Against Nashville, he played on a line with Domi and Boedker. They played to a 30% possession rating.
Then against Detroit, about halfway through the game they switched out Boedker for Duclair, the Coyotes best possession driving player. It didn't work very well: Vermette finished the night with a 20% Corsi (meaning for every shot the Coyotes attempted while on the ice, the Wings took four). The good news was that once Duclair joined the line they were able to play at 33% (better but still sub-enforcer level).
Finally, last night against the Sabres they decided that maybe Domi was the problem and they gave Vermette Hanzal's normal line of Reider and Duclair. What is usually a 52% line played to 17% effectiveness last night.
17% percent. That is AHL vs NHL possession ratings. I mean, you could probably do better than 17% just by showing up and using two skates. But no.
Duclair - Hanzal - Domi: How hard is that? At least give yourself one line that doesn't run the risk of destroying one of your prized rookies' confidence.
The Coyotes are a bad team, but their questionable deployment of players makes them worse than they have to be. The team doesn't have to be as horrible as it is. But, I have been telling you that this is what is going to happen since the draft because the team has made one confounding decision after another since then.
It's time for a new GM and Coach. It's time to bench/demote Vermette and it's time to trade OEL.
Thanks for reading.
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