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Jakub Vrana’s 4 goal night couldn’t have come at a better time for him. With only 7 games left in the season, Vrana has 5 goals and an assist in 4 games played (out one with illness). He’s scoring on almost 50% of the shots he takes and has the fans excited about the future. He is in the top three fastest skaters on the team, if not tied for first. Yzerman’s job may have gotten more difficult after last night.
I did a rundown on the UFAs a few days ago. The choices there are basically keep or release. Bernier is the top UFA, for sure. The rest are good guys, but not necessarily make or break signings.
What makes this year (and next most likely) difficult for players is a flat cap, and negative revenue. Last summer, when the league was down 1.5 billion, free agents were put on notice. Offers were lower, and signing dollars were going to be far less. Signing bonus money is the golden calf of contracts. You get it all before playing your first game, taxes are lower, agent fees are lower, and until recently, escrow wasn’t taken out. They’ve adjusted for that, but the bonus money can still mean a 25-30% bump in take home pay.
Last summer, Duclair and Athanasiou went out on their own. 4.5 on 3 years had been offered to AD, and AA turned down around 3 million. Their agents said it was “insulting” (AD dropped his representation and tried to negotiate his own deal). The top dogs got paid in Krug and Pietrangelo, but a lot of people took a lot less money. Things aren’t better now.
The total debt/shortfall for the league is around the 5 billion dollar mark come season’s end. If Canada is really looking at a playoff bubble, that’s a huge loss (again). Toronto and Montreal in the post season is a literal gold rush. 80,000 people will pay money to stand in the street and watch games. Those two teams could probably travel to any arena in the US and sell 10k tickets regardless of who the opponent is. They, along with NYR, Boston and Chicago, basically make the money for 1/3 of the league as about 15 teams don’t break even (5-10 end up on the negative side) and that’s in a 5 billion dollar season. I’m sure you all know the 50/50 revenue split in the CBA. That was thrown out the window temporarily with the Memorandum of Understanding signed before last year’s playoffs. Player escrow is capped at 20%. Without ticket sales (save for in a few markets in limited numbers) the loss is about 3 billion. So, in this shortened season the total revenue brought in is in the 1.5 billion dollar realm with a salary cap based on 5 billion. Fast forward, a debt of 5 billion dollars means players would have to pay 100% escrow for almost 2 years to honor the CBA.
Phew, now you’re caught up. So it’s a crappy time to be a free agent.
Jakub Vrana - JV could easily look at the Mantha deal of 5.7 (as most of you have pointed out) he shows similar career metrics. However, in a down market, what does 5.7 translate to? He’s making 3.35 right now, and will be looking for a raise. Vrana does have arbitration rights as well. My gut feeling is that Yzerman will want to stay south of 5 million if possible. 4.75 for 5? It’s going to depend a lot on how Vrana wants to move forward.
Adam Erne - currently making just about 1 million, Erne has had his best offensive season ever. He’s also arbitration eligible. Luke Glendening’s expiring deal is at 1.8, I’d have to think Erne could go around 1.3.
Christian Djoos - arbitration eligible, I’m not sure how much above league minimum you want to go here. He’s had good flashes, but should he eclipse 2 million? I assume Yzerman would want to stop short, but we’ll see how it goes.
Dennis Cholowski - no arbitration, try for his qualifier. He still looks a bit lost at times out there.
Gustav Lidstrom - another qualifier (near league minimum). Could be an odd man out 7th or 8th D.
Filip Hronek - this is the big one on defense. Hronek is Detroit’s best defenseman at this point. Is this a 3 - 3.5 million dollar signing?
Tyler Bertuzzi - speaking of 3.5 million, Tyler has had a rough go missing almost the whole season. He signed for 3.5 on a 1 year deal last year as a “prove it” type deal. He’s incredibly valuable to the team, and probably should have had surgery on “whatever it is” that’s bothering him. They tried the rehab route and he just hasn’t recovered. I think he could probably get 4.25 - 4.75 with term. Whatever he ends up with, he and Vrana will probably be looking at similar dollars.
Matthias Brome - remember him? Making just under $1m, I have a feeling he could do similar dollars for another 1 year deal. I love his intensity and skating, just needs to find his scoring at the NHL level.
Givani Smith - Smith has shown glimpses of being a bottom 6 contributor. He can play physical, be a net front presence, and play a tight checking game. I would like to see the organization keep him. Likely a short term around $1m
Hayden Verbeek and Chase Pearson - PTO or 2 way league minimum. Not a whole lot to say they could break into a bottom 3 role in Detroit.
There you have it. 11 RFAs, with three that are higher priority in Vrana, Hronek and Bertuzzi. Detroit currently has 8 players signed for the NHL with about 48 million in cap space. In the past, Yzerman made some fairly generous deals in Tampa with a lot of no movement clauses. Things have changed, and I have to think that Larkin is considered top dog at 6.1 million. I don’t see anyone getting more than that, or even matching it at this point.
So, where do you think it will all end up? Short term prove it deals, 5 years with a smaller than normal $? Let me know
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